It’s not even May yet, but with my favorite team (the Buffalo Sabres) out, there’s nothing to do but think of what lay ahead.
There’s the draft, of course, but the biggest question bouncing around in my head is “what will the Sabres lineup look like to start the 2014-15 season?” The sad (or good, depending on your point of view) part is that it could look pretty similar to the way it did to end the 2013-14 season.
The Sabres understand what they are: a rebuilding team with a deep (and growing) pool of prospects it hopes will take it back to relevance and contender status. That means the Sabres aren’t likely to go out and make a huge splash in the free agent market, though that certainly isn’t stopping fans of the blue and gold from speculating about signing someone like Ryan Callahan, who just happens to be a Buffalo native.
No, instead they’ll likely focus on re-signing their own, promoting from within and maybe making a veteran signing or two. Also, knowing they’re going to be bad this upcoming season, they’ll want to be as bad possible once again to make sure that they can land in the top three of the draft. When there are potential franchise-changers at the top of the draft and you’re a bad team, you make sure you’re bad enough to land one of them.
So next season will look a lot like this one: a few rookies will get their chance to shine, but it will be mostly the same talent-strapped group that made the Sabres the worst team in the NHL this past season.
Here’s a quick breakdown of the notable moves the Sabres will make in the offseason:
Re-signing: Jamie McBain, Henrik Tallinder, Matthew Hackett, Tyler Ennis, Marcus Foligno, Luke Adam, Zenon Konopka.
Buyout: Ville Leino.
Free Agent signings: Steve Ott.
Leino is basically out the door at this point and it would be Kennedy-assassination shocking if he were kept. He’s the most expensive forward on the roster and repaid that contract with zero goals in 50+ games this season. To say that this signing has been a disaster is unfair to disasters. This buyout needs to happen both for the sake of the roster and the player himself.
The re-signings seem pretty open and shut across the board. The only cases that may need to be made are for McBain and Adam. McBain was…not good in his first year with the Sabres, but with so many young defensemen in the system, he could be kept around as a filler sixth defenseman should Rasmus Ristolainen or Mark Pysyk not be able to cut it with the big club right out of the gate. Adam, meanwhile, is a big forward with intriguing skills who has never been able to make a dent in Buffalo, but with the scoring depth as thin as it is, he could see extended time next year.
Where things get tricky is evaluating where certain prospects are in their development. The Sabres will likely have Mikhail Grigorenko, Johan Larsson, Nikita Zadorov, Ristolainen, Pysyk, Dan Catenacci, Chad Ruhwedel, Sam Bennett/Sam Reinhart, Adam and Joel Armia either ready to make a run at sticking with the Sabres or to get significant time in Rochester. With as bad as the Sabres are likely to be next year, there is no inherent need to rush these guys along. Most of, if not all of, those players could remain in Rochester for the bulk of the year with whoever is selected second overall in the draft sent back to Juniors.
Let’s take a look at my early projections and I’ll explain a few inclusions/omissions.
Foligno – Ennis – Stafford
Girgensons – Hodgson – Stewart
Ott – Larsson – Mitchell
Conacher – Konopka – Flynn
Ehrhoff – Ristolainen
Myers – Tallinder
Weber – McBain/Pysyk
Enroth/Neuvirth
Looks largely the same, no? Ott supposedly loved his time in Buffalo and could be brought back into the fold. Putting him on the third line next to a developing two-way player like Larsson would help take some of the attention off the youngster and allow him to develop between two veterans. Girgensons, a budding two-way force, would be able to slide up to the second line with Hodgson and Stewart where he could further develop his offensive game while providing the defensively-questionable Hodgson with a strong defensive presence on the wing. Bringing back Konopka would help faceoffs and keeping Conacher is a win-win: either he does nothing in Buffalo and gives Rochester another decent skater or he does just well enough in the NHL to justify keeping him around. Frankly, I like him more at this point than Matt Ellis or Patrick Kaleta.
“Where is the second overall pick?” you may be asking. It’s looking more and more likely the Sabres will land one of Bennett or Reinhart and there’s a good chance that either of them could be the Sabres’ best forward as soon as next year. But if the team is going to be horrible, why rush a top pick into the lineup unless he plays like he belongs? If I’m Tim Murray, I send down the top pick unless he plays lights out in camp. No sense in making him take it on the chin with the rest of the team.
Defensively, it seems time for Ristolainen to make the permanent transition to the NHL. He’s already played as a boy among men in Finland and his defensive game looks NHL-ready. The same goes for Pysyk, who has shown growing offensive skills to go with his solid defensive game. Let the kids who look most ready get the first shot. If they can’t stick, McBain and Ruhwedel are ready to take their spots while Rochester gets the benefit of having these talented youngsters back in their ranks. Win-win.
Goaltender is pretty cut and dry, too: Enroth has stood on his head in the past and looks like the clear #1 at this point in time, though he doesn’t seem like an ideal #1. Letting him platoon with Neuvirth, who has shown flashes of being a very good goalie in his short time in Buffalo, lets both showcase themselves without the pressures of being “the guy”. This allows Hackett to take over the undisputed #1 spot in Rochester with Nathan Lieuwen as the backup. Suddenly, goaltender is deep with quality talent.
This projected lineup accomplishes two things for sure with a third possibility: first and foremost, it gives the Sabres the most competitive lineup they can possibly have at this point. Even if they’re likely to be offensively inept once again, they’ll be a quality defensive team from top to bottom and have just good enough goaltending to not get blown out on a nightly basis. Being competitive is all this group can hope for until the youthful reinforcements arrive.
Secondly, icing this lineup puts the Sabres in prime tank position. It’s no secret that the 2015 draft is much deeper than its 2014 counterpart and there are more than a few game-changers to be had. The Sabres will definitely want a shot at Connor McDavid or Jack Eichel at the top of the draft and they have the lineup to put them in a position to garner a top selection. After all, this is all driving towards building for the future and one of the top picks in the 2015 draft certainly helps that.
Lastly, this lineup allows the youthful core of the Sabres to develop across the organization. The ones deemed most ready – Ristolainen, Pysyk, Larsson – get their crack at being NHL regulars while the ones who may still need seasoning – McCabe, Grigorenko, Zadorov, Armia – get a chance to log big, important minutes in Rochester before potentially making the full-time jump to the Sabres for the 2015-16 season. Patience is the key in developing prospects and it must be shown even when we’d all really love to see the youth invasion take over Western New York right now.
For better or worse, 2014-15 is going to look pretty familiar to Sabres fans for a lot of reasons. Just try to keep reminding yourselves that the future is bright, the Sabres possess a myriad of talented prospects and that it can’t be this bad forever.
Follow Ryan on Twitter: @TwoPadStackRW
