Last post, I talked about the accuracy of hockey’s Pythagorean Theorem in predicting the performance of teams in the regular season. I also discussed how the formula could be used to project playoff results provided an experiment to see if this sabermetric formula could really see the future.
I made an entire forecast of the playoffs below, and all reflect on numbers generated by Pythagoras. So before we get started on the predictions, here are all the 16 playoff teams ranked by the formula over their past 20 games.
| TEAM | GF | GA | xPct | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Boston | 66 | 36 | .771 |
| 2 | NY Rangers | 56 | 35 | .719 |
| 3 | Los Angeles | 54 | 39 | .657 |
| 4 | San Jose | 61 | 47 | .627 |
| 5 | Anaheim | 65 | 55 | .583 |
| 6 | Philadelphia | 62 | 53 | .577 |
| 7 | Tampa Bay | 60 | 52 | .571 |
| 8 | Dallas | 59 | 52 | .563 |
| 9 | Columbus | 62 | 53 | .534 |
| 10 | Colorado | 56 | 53 | .528 |
| 11 | Montreal | 54 | 52 | .519 |
| 12 | Minnesota | 53 | 52 | .510 |
| 13 | Detroit | 57 | 57 | .500 |
| 14 | Chicago | 53 | 54 | .491 |
| 15 | Pittsburgh | 48 | 51 | .470 |
| 16 | St Louis | 40 | 49 | .400 |
(E1) Boston vs. (E8) Detroit
Although Detroit has gotten both of their playoff veterans back, but according to numbers on paper, Detroit didn’t even qualify for the playoffs. Boston’s overwhelming power on both ends on the ice will get the better of the Wings. Bruins in 6.
(E2) Pittsburgh vs. (E7) Columbus
Despite a winning record in March and April, plus a perfect 5-0 record against Columbus, the Pens poor defensive play has cost them many games lately. Combined with a surging Blue Jackets squad this series is primed for an upset. Blue Jackets in 7.
(E3) Tampa Bay vs. (E4) Montreal
Losing Ben Bishop will surely hurt, but Tampa Bay has still held the fort well with a no-nonsense blueline led by Hedman and Salo. They Habs have always lacked size and could prove costly against Tampa’s shutdown defence. Lightning in 7.
(E5) NY Rangers vs. (E6) Philadelphia
Philly may have revived their season, but many of their wins came in highly offensive games, which they’ll find a hard time creating against Henrik Lundqvist and the Rangers. The Rangers have also torched the East with only 7 goals allowed in their past 7. Rangers in 5.
(W1) Anaheim vs. (W8) Dallas
According to Pythagoras, the records between show that this series will closer than you’ll expect. However, the Ducks’ experienced attack should take this series, as we don’t know how many games Kari Lehtonen can play befor burning out. Ducks in 7.
(W2) Colorado vs. (W7) Minnesota
This season, the Avalanche showed flashes of the Blackhawks before their era of dominance in the West. The development of all their top prospects has given their a balanced defence and a fast-paced attack at the same time. Avalanche in 5.
(W3) St. Louis vs. (W5) Chicago
Even though they’re still powerhouses in the West, the Blues and the Blackhawks finished the season in a depth spiral. The Hawks’ woes can be explained by the injuries of Toews and Kane. The Blues? We’re not really sure. Blackhawks in 6.
(W4) San Jose vs. (W6) Los Angeles
Data from the Pythagorean Expectation shows that the Kings and Sharks were both the best teams in the West in the last 20 games. The key point is: LA has always had the upper hand on the Sharks this year and they are a different team in the playoffs. Kings in 7.
Now, I didn’t take all the data provided by the Pythagorean Expectation into account for my predictions as the possibilities of the other team winning are still very high. I still considered all the intangibles such as injuries, past history, and experience.
Anyway, moving on to Round Two.
(E1) Boston vs. (E7) Columbus
The Jackets may have momentum on their side, but they still don’t have the tools to get them past a team that has led in almost every category over the season. Bruins in 4.
(E3) Tampa Bay vs. (E5) NY Rangers
The Lightning might have their sizzling attack and calm defence at hand, but it won’t be enough to take down a Rangers team that can contribute from anywhere. Rangers in 6.
(W1) Anaheim vs. (W6) Los Angeles
The Ducks certainly had things go their way in the regular season against the Kings, but as we all know LA is much more dangerous in postseason hockey and experience will take over. Kings in 5.
(W2) Colorado vs. (W5) Chicago
A battle of two teams stacked with young talent up front should set the stage for one of the most entertaining series in the playoffs. The Hawks’ savvy play will prevail in the end. Hawks in 5.
(E1) Boston vs. (E5) NY Rangers
The Rangers’ method of contributing by committee has allowed them to thrive under Coach Vigneault’s free-spirited style. However, the Bruins are good that as well, and they also score in spades. Bruins in 7.
(W5) Chicago vs. (W6) Los Angeles
A rematch of the 2013 Western Conference Final is definitely interesting, but LA’s defensive corps could lead the Hawks to show signs of a Cup Hangover. Kings in 6.
(E1) Boston vs. (W6) Los Angeles
You might be thinking that for the Cup Finalists this year I basically took the top teams from each Conference that generated the best records on their data charts. But if you take a closer look, there are striking reasons why the Kings and the Bruins are playing for the Cup.
The Bruins this year have completed dominated the NHL this year, scoring 258 goals and giving up only 171. They held a plus-minus rating of 80 this year, and still didn’t meet the expectations set by the Pythagorean Theorem.
Though the Kings don’t score as many goals compared to other Contenders, there’s a distinct trait that separates them from other teams: They don’t get blown out. The last time LA lost by 3 goals was on 30 January.
The Kings however, will find themselves unable to match Boston’s offensive output in the end and will just come up short for their franchise’s second Cup. Bruins in 6.
ABOVE FEATURED IMAGE: Jonathan Toews gets ready for a face-off during the 2014 Coors Light NHL Stadium Series (Zimbio/Getty Images)
