The 2014 Stanley Cup Playoffs featured one of the most dazzling performances the hockey world has witnessed in the past decade. Fans saw the Los Angeles Kings set numerous records en route to their Cup victory, highlighted by an unbelievable back-and-forth series with Chicago and a trifecta of overtime victories in the Stanley Cup Final.
In other words, this year’s playoffs was quite different from expected as all the Cup favourites dropped early in the playoffs: San Jose, Anaheim, Pittsburgh, and Boston. So how well did my predictions, using hockey’s Pythagorean Theorem work out? On a standard bracket I correctly predicted 10 of the 15 series in the playoffs. Here are my picks in April. (And yes, I even got the matchups in the second round mixed up, sorry about that)
So the Pythagorean Theorem wasn’t shabby at all in forecasting playoff matches. However, while Pythagoras was proficient in separating real skill from luck, it failed to:
- Predict what would happen in times of sudden change
- Place
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the statistics in context of the situation
In data collection, fixing these two issues would be impossible as analysts would need the “tools” that scouts have always claimed are better than statistics. Conventional wisdom is still needed to know what would happen because these formulas can’t outline the if outcomes. For example, if a team’s top line suddenly suffered a slump, if a key player went down with an injury, or if a team just posted a brilliant record because they played subpar opponents.
These are the reasons why I slipped on many predictions. Montreal swept Tampa Bay because a fourth line led by Dale Weise held a steady presence throughout the series, and the Lightning themselves were already weak with Ben Bishop injured. Columbus, although they definitely looked to be the team with more desire, couldn’t outplay Pittsburgh’s playoff experience and dropped in six games. Boston’s top line couldn’t get it going the moment the playoffs started, Krejci finished with three points and Bergeron was surprisingly careless with the puck. And even then Boston still dominated in certain stretches, imagine if the first line stayed in shape in the second round.
In conclusion, the Pythagorean Theorem is a handy tool to outline the real potential of teams, but one would still need to use their hockey knowledge if they are to successfully predict the playoffs. I’ve also learned to practice something that I call sports pragmatism, sometimes you just have to go with what everyone says, because it is the logical way to go.
ABOVE FEATURED IMAGE: Dustin Brown hoists the Stanley Cup for the second time in his career (Official Kings Web/Getty Images)
