It is the middle of November and if you are making college football picks, successfully, you have moved on from your preseason assumptions weeks ago. The football season moves pretty quickly and the best bettors do a lot of work in the offseason. Once the season starts we get excited but try to keep in mind that small sample sizes can be dangerous. Now we are in November and we have to start believing what we have seen this season.
Here are some things I wish I had known coming into the season
Ohio State was going to be Amazing
When your quarterback leaves for the NFL there is often a period of adjustment even for a factory like OSU. Every year they turnover elite talent and this season they were turning over from an elite coach too so there was every reason to believe this was going to be just a pretty good Buckeye team. Wrong, depending on how you look at them they are the best team in the nation. They are 9-0 with the top scoring offense and defense. Best of all they are 8-1 ATS this season so the oddsmakers are still underrating them, in theory. This week they are -52.5. Crazy.
Not All Transfer QB are Game Changers
Quarterbacks who transfer seem to have the greatest opportunity to impact a program quickly. Justin Fields to Ohio State has been huge, ditto for Jalen Hurts’ move to Oklahoma, but they are not all home runs. One guy who was supposed to make a difference was Hunter Johnson going from Clemson to Northwestern. He was a former five star who was just terrible for the Wildcats who are subsequently one of the worst offensive teams in the country. That has led to just one win on the season and a wallet draining ATS record of 2-7. Those transfer QBs make for good offseason narratives but those narratives might not help you make winning college football picks.
It is Hard to Keep up with the Service Academy Shuffle
Army won 11 games last season, the most in its history. With a hot coach in Todd Monken and 13 games on the schedule they were a hot over team coming into the season. They even gave Michigan a battle before losing by three in overtime, but a couple of weeks later things fell apart – 5 straight losses – equal to the last two seasons combined. Meanwhile, Navy is 7-1 and ranked heading into their annual tilt with Notre Dame. Best of all they are 6-2 ATS. Army received AP votes coming into the season making them the 27th ranked team in the nation. Navy did not receive a single one. The service academies are different animals with their commitment to the option and the experience of their players. I love getting behind them but like in so many situations you have to know which horse to go with.
As Ferris Bueller says “life moves pretty fast”, a college football season is no different. You have to be able to sort the signals from the noise if you are going to win with your college football picks.