While there are those in the football world who are of the opinion that the 10-6 mark posted by the New York Jets during the 2015 National Football League season was a fluke, a one-off, and that that Jets will return to mediocrity in 2016, the analytics of the situation would suggest exactly the opposite.
There are solid indications all around that the Jets will continue to trend upward in 2016. The Jets were ahead of the NFL curve in all significant offensive and defensive statistical categories during the 2015 season. On offense, the Jets were above the league average in total yardage gained (370.31-351.24), rushing yardage (116.75-108.50) and passing yardage (253.50-242.84).
When the other team owned the ball, the Jets still owned the advantage. They defended the pass (235.19-242.84) better than the NFL average and were the best AFC team and second overall in the NFL at stopping the run, holding the enemy to 83.4 yards per game, well below the league median of 108.50. Overall, New York’s defense allowed 318.62 yards per game, making the Jets the NFL’s fourth-best defense. The NFL average was 351.54.
The Jets permitted just 33.2 per cent of third down plays to be converted into first downs. Only the Houston Texans (28.5 per cent) held a better number among the NFL’s 31 other teams.
Yet it still seems that the Jets are a hard sell as a legitimate playoff contender among the football betting public.
SportsBetting lists the Jets and Buffalo Bills as second choices among AFC East teams to win the AFC Championship, both listed at +2500 and places 10 teams with better odds than the Jets to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl. BetOnline also has the Jets at +2500 to capture the AFC Championship, as do Bovada and GTBets.
While seemingly out of place, maybe this lack of faith in the Jets is understandable, especially to those who’ve made it their life’s work to support the Jets.
Their 10-6 mark in 2015 marked the seventh time in franchise history that the Jets won at least 10 games and did not capture the AFC East Division crown. It was the first time in team history, though, that the Jets won 10 games and did not qualify for postseason play.
Five times since 2002, the Jets have collected double digits in wins, and five times since 2002, the Jets have suffered double digits in losses.
The Jets, Tampa Bay Buccaneers and New Orleans Saints are the only NFL teams that are 1-0 in Super Bowl play. Along with the Kansas City Chiefs, the Jets are the only other team to win its lone Super Bowl title as an AFL team. New York is 0-4 in AFC Championship Games, including successive setbacks in 2009-10.
It’s easy to suggest that the Jets are one player away from being a legitimate contender, the problem being that one player appears to be a quarterback. Minus free agent Ryan Fitzpatrick, the journeyman who enjoyed a career year for the Jets in 2015 and then opted for free agency, it appears the Jets are determined to give (yet) another chance to the wildly inconsistent Geno Smith.
So again, why should anyone believe that the Jets could be for real?
Let’s start at the skill positions. On a team that’s suited up some Hall of Fame wideouts in its history, wide receiver Brandon Marshall set franchise marks for receptions (109), and receiving yardage (1,052) last season. The addition of free-agent running back Matt Forte supplies the team with a safety valve receiver out of the backfield. He’s averaged 80 targets and 61 receptions per season in his NFL career.
And yet, it’s hard to find believers. GTBets sets the Jets over/under on wins at 7.5 and lists New York and the Bills as co-second picks to win the AFC East at +550. Bovada has the Jets and Bills equal at +525, while Sports Interaction puts the Jets and Bills as second choice at +628 and sets the bar for Jets’ wins in 2016 at eight.
So why then, pick the Jets to be something special?
For starters, no team in the AFC East plays the Patriots as consistently tough as the Jets. The last seven games between these two age-old rivals were decided by an average margin of 3.5 points, the home team winning every meeting. The Jets were the best AFC East team against the spread in 2015, going 8-6-2. New York’s 122 wins in the past decade is second among AFC East teams to the perennial champion Patriots.
Yes, the AFC East remains New England’s division to lose. But to suggest that the Jets can’t be a factor would be to ignore the evidence.
Odds To Win AFC East
New England Patriots: -210
Buffalo Bills: +525
New York Jets: +525
Miami Dolphins:+800
