For a primer on the conference tournaments as they relate to the bubble, here’s a piece written in the middle of last week. Before you read it, though, realize that Stanford somehow fell out of the 5 seed in the Pac-12 tournament. Texas A&M somehow fell out of a top-4 seed in the SEC, with LSU climbing into the No. 4 spot. The pieces moved in unexpected ways on the final weekend of the college basketball regular season.
Those details, however, don’t alter the fundamental reality of this week: You want to get a first-round bye to avoid playing an RPI-dragging game. To add to that point, if you’re a bubble team, you want to play games that can add to your resume, not the games which — if lost — will only make your profile look worse.
With this in mind, which teams received bracket breaks… and bracket brutality? Here are the 10 most important bracket facts of Championship Week:
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10 – BALANCED BRACKETS IN THE ATLANTIC 10
The A-10 provided a surprise autobid winner last year with Saint Joseph’s, and that’s a league where a surprise autobid could emerge this year as well. A key point is that autobid seekers Richmond and Rhode Island are on opposite sides of the bracket. Should the Spiders and Rams both win their way into the final, they would automatically ensure that the A-10 will add an extra bid and reduce the size of the bubble. The community of Bubble Nation wants a Davidson-Dayton final in the A-10 tourney.
9 – MIAMI’S MEANINGFUL MOMENT
The Miami Hurricanes must sweat out an ACC second-round game, probably against Wake Forest. If they can get past that hurdle, they would face a moment of truth in the ACC quarters against Notre Dame. Miami received a bracket break here in that the Canes got the Irish, not Duke, in the ACC quarters. Miami won at Duke earlier in the season, so the Canes probably wouldn’t have fared well against the Blue Devils. Notre Dame is a better opponent, and if The U can get a “W” against the Irish, they’ll be right on the cut line, with a real chance to crack the field.
8 – HOME-COURT TEAMS AND AUTOBID DREAMS, PART I
There are a few home-court situations in the conference tournaments that bear watching: Connecticut hosts The American tournament, and UNLV hosts the Mountain West. If either one of these teams can get past a tough quarterfinal (UConn versus Cincinnati, UNLV versus San Diego State), an autobid becomes very realistic. Connecticut steered clear of SMU’s side of the bracket in The American. UNLV drew a tougher assignment with San Diego State. The Rebels probably would have liked to have drawn Boise State in a Mountain West quarterfinal.
7 – HOME-COURT TEAMS AND AUTOBID DREAMS, PART II
The conference tournament bracket you need to pay attention to is Conference USA’s pathway. There’s a very specific bubble situation attached to the fact that UAB hosts this tournament in Birmingham.
UAB is the 4 seed, in Louisiana Tech’s side of the bracket. Old Dominion is the 3 seed in C-USA, the one bubble team in the league. ODU — should it fail to win the tournament — at least needs to not only make the final, but lose to Louisiana Tech and no one else. This is an underappreciated portion of Championship Week: While wins and lossees are important, your opponents in the conference tournaments also shape your needs and their severity.
If UAB upsets Louisiana Tech in a possible semifinal, Old Dominion would almost certainly have to win the C-USA tournament to make the field of 68. ODU has to tend to its business, of course, but the Monarchs want Tech to deck UAB in the semis.
6 – TULSA’S TROUBLES
Related to the dynamic just outlined above, the Tulsa Golden Hurricane need to play Cincinnati, not Connecticut, in The American semifinals in order to get a schedule-and-RPI boost. Tulsa, very likely on the negative side of the bubble right now, is sweating to begin with. The Golden Hurricane should be especially worried that since UConn is hosting the AAC tournament, the Huskies might knock off Cincinnati. Tulsa does not want to play what would amount to a road game against an opponent with a worse profile. Tulsa needs Cincinnati to be its semifinal opponent. If the Golden Hurricane play UConn in the semis, a win there might not be enough to get Tulsa into the field. Frank Haith’s team might need to win the whole tournament to be safe.
5 – XAVIER’S RELIEF
The Xavier Musketeers are likely in the field, though they’re probably not an absolute lock. Yet, they received one very important bracket break: They made the top six seeds in the Big East. Xavier thereby missed out on having to play a first-round game against the last-place team in the conference, Creighton. If Xavier had to play that game, the Musketeers would have seen their RPI drop. That’s the kind of bracket detail which matters at this time of year. Even if Xavier loses to Butler in the Big East quarters, such a result should not hurt X’s overall profile. Butler, of course, is a quality team, and losing to a quality opponent should not hurt a team that’s on the good side of the bubble to begin with.
4 – INDIANA’S IN-BETWEEN EXISTENCE
The Indiana Hoosiers are right on the bubble. In the Big Ten tournament, they face a difficult situation, but one that could give way to a real opportunity.
The Hoosiers were unlucky in that the Big Ten bracket put them against Northwestern — a nemesis for Tom Crean — in the second round. If IU loses that game, it will be in deep trouble on Selection Sunday, with the First Four being the best the team could hope for. On the other hand, if IU wins that game, it would then draw Maryland in the Big Ten quarters. Maryland is great at home… but not that great away from home. Playing Maryland at a neutral site would give Indiana a chance to fully seal a place in the NCAAs. The Hoosiers therefore received a “bad bracket-good bracket” combo in Chicago.
3 – PURDUE MUST BE PLEASED
The Purdue Boilermakers are likely in the field, and what’s more is that by getting the No. 4 seed in the Big Ten tournament, they don’t have to play an RPI-reducing game against Nebraska or Penn State. Iowa must do that. Purdue, even if it should lose to Iowa, would not suffer a great deal as a result of that loss. Yes, a loss would be a missed opportunity to make life easier, but it would not be damaging the way a loss to Nebraska or Penn State would be. Purdue could, however, fully punch its ticket with a win over the Hawkeyes. The Boilermakers’ NCAA chances have gone up solely as a result of the bracket they’ve been given in the Big Ten tourney.
2 – WANTING THE ONE SEEDS: UCLA and TEXAS A&M
At this time of year, if you’re a bubble team, you want to be able to play your way into the field. More precisely, you want to play opponents which — if you can beat them — will add a lot of value to your resume. UCLA and Texas A&M can do exactly that. They should be happy that top seeds in the Pac-12 and SEC tournaments are in their half of the bracket.
If UCLA can play — and beat — Arizona in the P-12 semis, the Bruins should get into the field.
If Texas A&M can play — and beat — Kentucky in the SEC semis, the Aggies should get into the field.
Sometimes, having the hardest possible bracket is a good thing. Such is the case for UCLA and A&M. Their resumes need the boost.
1 – TEXAS TENSION
The Longhorns received a nasty bracket break by falling into the 7 seed in the Big 12. They have to play an RPI-dragging game against 10-seed Texas Tech. Had Texas been able to get the 6 seed in the Big 12, it would have been able to play an RPI-boosting game against Oklahoma, but if Texas should lose that Texas Tech game, it would mean a near-certain ticket to the NIT. Texas will have to beat Texas Tech and then Iowa State in order to have a reasonable shot at the NCAA tournament. The Longhorns have to win two games because they’re a 7, not a 6. Seedings matter at this time of year.