Life is full of surprises.
As the NBA playoffs move into the second round (with Game 7 between the Spurs and Clippers about to tip off at press time), we are confronted with a situation that is not necessarily an unassailable, airtight fact, but certainly hard to refute on a few basic levels: The Eastern Conference semifinals are more interesting than the Western Conference semifinals.
Few basketball analysts expected to say or see this a few months ago.
Many were waiting for the inevitable Cleveland-Atlanta East Finals, while being curious as to which teams would emerge from the jumble in the West. Perhaps the Spurs will escape from ClipperLand with a series win on Saturday night (if you’re reading this article on Sunday or Monday, you’ll know the answer), but two months ago, there was no assurance that San Antonio would be a central factor in the West race. What has also altered the equation in the West is that the Spurs and Clippers — very likely two of the five best teams in the league — were forced to play in the first round, changing the complexion of the West semifinals in ways that couldn’t have been anticipated in the month of March.
Meanwhile, the East feels like anything but a foregone conclusion, which marks a reversal from the All-Star break. At that point in time, many in the hoops punditocracy were (understandably, I might add) waiting to see how the best player in the league would fare against one of the most successful “blended teams” of the 2014-2015 season in Atlanta.
Now, though, the Cavs-Hawks clash that was once seen as a near certainty is very much in doubt. Cleveland is without Kevin Love for the rest of the season and will miss J.R. Smith for the first two games of the East semis against the Chicago Bulls… who have a version of Derrick Rose that’s far healthier than anyone could have expected when the star guard suffered yet another injury earlier in 2015. Rose’s repeated injury problems, combined with the extent to which Cleveland meshed after midseason deals involving Timofey Mozgov, Smith, and Iman Shumpert, created a climate in which it seemed darn-near impossible for the Bulls to overtake the Cavs.
Here we are, on the eve of another LeBron-versus-the-Bulls playoff series, and while Cleveland probably still deserves to be seen as the favorite, the margin between these teams seems small. At the very least, the series is a mystery in light of the changes both rosters have absorbed.
As the cover photo for this piece shows, the Bulls have a history of playing rough with LeBron. King James did not lose to the Bulls in the playoffs as a member of the Miami Heat. He defeated Tom Thibodeau’s team in the 2011 East Finals and the 2013 East semis, despite the dogged efforts of Kirk Hinrich, Joakim Noah, and everyone else in a Bulls uniform.
Don’t allow victories — even five-game series triumphs — to let you think that those series victories came easily for the King. LeBron had to work very hard for everything he got in those playoff tests against Chicago. The Heat won not because of their offense, anyway; Chicago just wasn’t able to hit enough jumpers in the 2011 series, and the Bulls were even more limited without Rose in the 2013 series. Miami won both times with defense. Cleveland has to look at the Bulls’ less effective bigs — Noah and Taj Gibson are injury-magnet players who become less and less nimble as the years go by — and think that it can be vigorous in devoting their defensive energies to containing both Rose and Jimmy Butler.
Regardless of what you are predicting in the Cavs-Bulls series, the drama of seeing LeBron and Bulls on the same court once again — magnified by the attrition the Cavs are facing, especially in Games 1 and 2 — makes that series highly compelling.
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This serves as a good time to step back and make one very important point about why the East is more interesting than the West in the second round of the playoffs: This is a measurement of the level of uncertainty — and hence, the level of theater — one can reasonably expect in these four series, two in each conference. This is NOT a measurement of the quality of basketball you are about to see.
In an overview of the Washington Wizards-Atlanta Hawks series here at Crossover Chronicles, you will be able to see more of what’s being said here: The storylines and tension points at work in Wizards-Hawks are extremely rich and fascinating. The magnitude of the series is immense for both sides in a way that the Western Conference’s two semifinal series can’t match, given the circumstances. Sure, the West might provide better ball, but the East is where the intrigue lies.
The Golden State Warriors are the best team in the NBA. They have set the standard all season long, with Stephen Curry and Draymond Green doing a million different things to make that team click. You would not be unreasonable in the slightest to suggest that the Warriors will play the best basketball over the next 12 to 14 days.
LOS ANGELES, CA – APRIL 22: Manu Ginobili #20 of the San Antonio Spurs keeps his dribble from Austin Rivers #25 of the Los Angeles Clippers as Tiago Splitter #22 looks for a pass during Game Two of the Western Conference quarterfinals of the 2015 NBA Playoffs at Staples Center on April 22, 2015 in Los Angeles, California. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this Photograph, user is consenting to the terms and condition of the Getty Images License Agreement. The Spurs won 111-107. (Photo by Harry How/Getty Images)
The Spurs-Clippers winner — after coming through a truly epic first-round series (it’s not often a first-round series merits the “E-Word,” a term too frequently or reflexively used in sports discussions) — has a great chance of playing well against the Houston Rockets in the second round. The West is, in a sense, the possible victim of its own success.
Right now, the reality of Mike Conley’s injury has drained a lot of the promise and potential out of the Golden State-Memphis series. Perhaps Conley will become very effective and polished by the time the Dubs-Griz series reaches Game 3 next Saturday, which might change the calculus of that battle. However, it’s hard to see how Conley will be on the floor long enough — at a reasonably high level of potency — to give the Grizzlies a substantial shot at pulling the upset.
Golden State’s status as a heavy favorite therefore makes the West semifinals feel like the prelude the East semifinals were supposed to represent a few months ago. In early March, we were all expecting and waiting for (perhaps hoping for) a Cleveland-Atlanta East Final, but that’s far from certain at this point. In early May, a large portion of basketball fans and pundits are waiting for a West Finals series between Golden State and the Spurs-Clippers winner.
Yes, Houston has more of a shot in its conference semifinal due to San Antonio and Los Angeles beating each other up over the course of seven games, but let’s not deny the obvious: A Spurs-Warriors or Clippers-Warriors West Final would still rate as bigger basketball attractions. Spurs-Dubs would soar because of the reputation of the Spurs. A Clips-Dubs series would crackle because of the hatred between the two teams. The Rockets wouldn’t exist on the same plane. This is not a reflection of the Rockets’ deficiencies, either; it’s just that the Spurs and Clippers would bring unique qualities into a series against Golden State.
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It’s a point worth debating, and for all we know, the Eastern Conference could be “clunker-riffic” enough to give us two snoozeville series that don’t last beyond five games. That could certainly happen. Yet, at this point, with the second round just about to start (and Spurs-Clippers coming to an end), the great theater of sporting tension and drama — enhanced by the prevalence of unpredictability and various question marks — is the province of the Eastern Conference and not the West.
Life is full of surprises.