Editor’s Note: Crossover Chronicles is happy to welcome two special guests to a roundtable on the Western Conference finals between the Houston Rockets and Golden State Warriors. Joining us are special guests Raphielle Johnson and Aaron Torres, whose analysis will lead off our examination of this series. The other five panelists for this roundtable are Crossover Chronicles writers.
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ROUNDTABLE SPECIAL GUESTS
RAPHIELLE JOHNSON, COLLEGE BASKETBALL WRITER FOR NBC SPORTS / COLLEGE BASKETBALL TALK – @raphiellej
Golden State key player: Klay Thompson
I’ll take him over Curry because I don’t think Steph and Harden spend much time defending each other this series. (Terry was the primary defender on Chris Paul.) Klay’s improved as a defender, and his length could pose a challenge for Harden. Offensively, we’ve seen some of his explosions this season, and this could be a good matchup for him on that end of the floor.
Houston key player: Dwight Howard
At this point I’m not expecting Howard to be some havoc-wreaking badass; that’s not in his nature. But he has to be the man in the middle in this series for a team that’s scoring 50.5 points in the paint per game in the playoffs. That won’t be easy going up against one of the NBA’s best interior defenders in Bogut, but Dwight can’t get punked as he did early in Houston’s last series. He’ll be challenged, and while Harden is the clear top option for Houston Dwight cannot fold if the Rockets are to have any shot at winning.
Matchup/battle Golden State must win: Free throws
James Harden is the best in the NBA at getting to the foul line, be it through legitimate means or what I’ll refer to as “salesmanship.” Golden State needs to make sure the MVP runner-up isn’t making his way to the foul line, possession after possession.
Matchup/battle Houston must win: Fast-break points
In the playoffs these teams are pretty close, with Golden State averaging 22.3 points per game and Houston at 19.1. Houston cannot allow Golden State to get out in the open floor, because not only does that provide the Warriors with chances to get to the rim, but it also opens up their shooters. If Stephen Curry or Klay Thompson wind up finding looks in the open floor, Houston’s in trouble.
Series Prediction: Warriors in 5
The Rockets have a star in James Harden, and role players such as Jason Terry, Trevor Ariza, Josh Smith and Corey Brewer have all stepped up at various points in the playoffs thus far. But I’ll take Golden State’s role players (Draymond Green, Harrison Barnes, and Andrew Bogut being three) and the “Splash Brothers” to get the job done with ease compared to their series against Memphis.
AARON TORRES, FOX SPORTS LIVE SHOW WRITER /
COLLEGE FOOTBALL & BASKETBALL WRITER FOR FOX SPORTS – @Aaron_Torres
Golden State key player: Steph Curry (duh!)
Houston key player: The Rockets’ bench
Matchup/battle Golden State must win: Rebounding
Matchup/battle Houston must win: Defensive field goal percentage (aka, don’t let Golden State get hot)
I know, these predictions are getting a little redundant here. But in the same way that I think the Cavs bench will lead them to a series win, I believe Houston’s bench can at least keep things close.
Do I think Houston will win?
Not necessarily.
At the same time, they wouldn’t be here without guys like Pablo Prigioni, Corey Brewer and Josh Smith…who isn’t technically a “bench guy” but, well, work with me here! And they wouldn’t be here without the defense those bench guys played in the final two games against the Clippers specifically.
Sure, everyone spent a couple days talking about Smith’s white-hot performance offensively in Game 6, but what impressed me the most was the way the Rockets picked up their defensive intensity as a team in that game. The Clippers literally couldn’t even get a good shot up in the final 10 or so minutes of Game 6, let alone score buckets, and that transitioned to Game 7, where the Rockets opened up an early lead and never relinquished it.
Now, the question is this: Will that defensive energy translate to the series against Golden State? If it does, I could see Houston winning at least two games, and maybe three. But at the same time, my concern is that they won’t be able to keep it up for a full series.
And if they don’t, well, is there a team that will expose them more quickly and more ruthlessly than the Warriors will? The answer is of course “no.”
Personally, I think Houston can ride the momentum of the Clips series, and steal one of the first two games at Oracle Arena.
But in the end, the Warriors have too much depth, too much scoring and too much Splash.
They win this series going away.
Series Prediction: Warriors in 6
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CROSSOVER CHRONICLES PANELISTS
BART DOAN, CROSSOVER CHRONICLES STAFF WRITER – @CrossoverNBA
Golden State key player: Draymond Green.
Assuming Golden State puts its best defensive player on James Harden, that will be the key. Green has the pedigree to not get baited into every call by the officials when Harden comes in contact with the defender, and he has the size and physicality to wear him out. Green’s best aspect in this series is his lateral quickness. Harden relies on the first step to create the contact how he wants it. If you can’t get that first step, it’s moot.
Houston key player: Corey Brewer.
He’s Houston’s best on-ball defender, and will be the ideal candidate to chase around Stephen Curry or Klay Thompson, or whoever is hot on Golden State. This is a horrible matchup for the Rockets, as evidenced by recent history. Brewer is the only guy with a shot of containing the Warriors’ three-point shooters.
Matchup/battle Golden State has to win: Help defense.
As much as Houston gets credit for its perimeter shooting, the key to defeating the Rockets is when they get in the lane and the help defense is confused. It killed the Clippers. Because of the athleticism of guys like Harden, Josh Smith, and Dwight Howard, there’s constant hesitation on defense when a Rocket ball handler gets in the lane. Watch the footwork on defense. It’s like guys are stuck in cement, thinking rather than trusting. The Warriors will need to read situations better than the Clippers did, so as to not let Houston get going, because the Rockets thrive on highlight plays and momentum to get their system up and running.
Matchup/battle Houston has to win: Intensity.
The Rockets were dead to rights against the Clippers, but found the intensity they showed against the Dallas Mavericks (in round one) just in time. Basketball isn’t hard. The guys that put the most in normally win. Both of these teams are starving to get to the next level, and Golden State has too much talent to not come out of the gate like you’ve never been fed. If Houston isn’t markedly more intense than the Warriors from the jump, the Rockets will get trucked.
Series Prediction: Warriors in 5
JOSEPH NARDONE, CROSSOVER CHRONICLES STAFF WRITER – @JosephNardone
Houston key player: Trevor Ariza
He needs to have a series that is near identical to the game he had in Game 7 against the Clippers: Spread the floor at one end of the floor with his three-point shooting, while neutralizing opponents with his defense. People will talk about all the “big names” in this series — and deservedly so — but if Houston wants to advance to the NBA Finals, it will not only need its stars to play like studs, but will also need Ariza to be the very best version of himself for the entire series.
Golden State key player: Klay Thompson.
Houston has two options going into this series: Let Curry get buckets and defend everyone else, or simply play the best defense possible against all competitors. Chances are the Rockets will go with the latter option, especially since Plan A could result in Curry scoring a billion points. That said, Thompson just needs to be his regular self. Curry can have an off-game or two, so it will be up to Thompson in those strange outings to carry the load. This is a task he is more than capable of carrying out… although no one has yet seen it on as large a stage as the Western Conference finals.
Matchup/battle Golden State must win: Draymond Green vs. all the Rockets
This comes down to the following battles-within-the-war: Who Draymond guards, how he potentially slows them down, and if he can offset one or more of Houston’s few offensive options. It is certainly worth noting: Green doesn’t necessarily match up all that well against Houston’s two best players. Who Steve Kerr has him guard will be interesting to observe in Game 1.
Matchup/battle Houston must win: rebounds
The Rockets must limit Golden State’s second-chance opportunities. The Rockets can ill-afford to give a historically great shooting team, which is presumably better even without its jump shooting, more free looks at the bucket. This can also be tied into a battle between Howard and Andrew Bogut — the former is the better player, but if the latter can offset Howard’s rebounding, it will go a long way toward decreasing Houston’s chances.
Series Prediction: Warriors in 6
Golden State is the better team. It has the best player, a better bench, and probably even the better coach despite Kevin McHale having more experience.
What will get lost in all the nonsense leading up to the first game, which will be driven by the idea that Houston will get demolished in this series, is that the Rockets are actually a good team and one which matches up relatively well against a diverse Golden State team. Dwight Howard possibly out-battling Andrew Bogut needs to drive Houston’s performance in the series. At the same time, it seems the Warriors have too much talent, with a transcendent star in Steph Curry, to be bogged down by a Rockets team which has been quite inconsistent in these playoffs.
Golden State can shoot, play defense, has multiple offensive options, and is probably as close to being as great an all-around team as there can be, especially out of those left in the playoffs. Houston has, well… a good team. Good teams don’t beat great teams. Not four-out-of-seven times, specifically.
JOE MANGANIELLO, CROSSOVER CHRONICLES SENIOR WRITER – @thatjoemags
Golden State key player: Whichever Splash Brother isn’t being guarded by Trevor Ariza.
Houston key player: James Harden.
Matchup/battle Golden State must win: keeping Dwight Howard off the glass.
Matchup/battle Houston must win: pitching a tent at the foul line and mucking up the game.
Series Prediction: Warriors in 5.
The unwarranted skepticism that surrounded the Warriors in April centered on the team’s youth and dearth of big game experience. Surely, the omnipresent Spurs possessed the wherewithal to teach these whippersnappers a lesson — that is until they dropped Game 82 to the Pelicans and somersaulted into the No. 6 seed and a round one cage match with the Clippers. The Grizzlies certainly bruised the Warriors’ egos in going up 2-1 last week, but Golden State simply shifted gears and pulverized Memphis.
Now we’re in mid-May, and Golden State is four wins away from the NBA Finals without having seen San Antonio or Los Angeles. The Dubs are staring a hole through this peppy, ungainly Rockets ensemble. Oh, how the tides have turned: Houston makes Golden State look like the 1990s Bulls. After seven months of worshipping at the altar of Western Conference basketball, the talent disparity between these two final teams is hilarious.
BRYAN GIBBERMAN, CROSSOVER CHRONICLES STAFF WRITER – @Gibberman10
Golden State key player: Klay Thompson/Andre Iguodala
I cheated and used two players. They’re the players most likely to see the James Harden assignment. If you give Harden trouble, you give the Rockets’ offense trouble.
Houston key player: Josh Smith
If Smith can win his battle with Draymond Green, maybe this gets a little more interesting than I think it will. If Smith can’t eclipse Draymond, the Rockets are at a disadvantage in a bunch of places and it will be extremely difficult for them to overcome the Warriors.
Matchup/battle the Warriors must win: None
I don’t think there’s anything specific the Warriors must do; they just need to be themselves: Defend at a high level, play offense at a high level, and everything will be okay. They’re the best team in the NBA for a reason.
Matchup/battle the Rockets must win: backcourt (on defense)
Houston has to find a way to slow down Klay Thompson and Steph Curry, and with the Rockets’ current personnel, I’m not sure this is possible. Even more than they did in the first two rounds, the Rockets are going to miss point guard Patrick Beverley. If he was playing, the Rockets would be able to use him on Curry and have Trevor Ariza chase around Thompson. Jason Terry gets one of those assignments if head coach Kevin McHale still wants to hide Harden on Harrison Barnes.
Series Prediction: Warriors in 5.
Once the Warriors found their bearings against the Memphis Grizzlies, they made easy work of a tough opponent. This matchup is a little different for Golden State, as it faces a foe who likes to do a lot of what the Warriors do, but in a different way. The end game is threes and shots at the rim in the series. Whoever does a better job on the defensive end in limiting those kinds of shots will win. I lean heavily towards the Warriors in this regard.
MATT ZEMEK, CROSSOVER CHRONICLES INTERIM EDITOR – @CrossoverNBA
Golden State key player: Harrison Barnes
Houston key player: Josh Smith
Matchup/battle Golden State must win: Klay Thompson’s matchup
Matchup/battle Houston must win: Howard vs. Bogut
The Rockets surpassed the Los Angeles Clippers for numerous reasons, but the central reason (in Games 5 through 7) was that the Clippers stopped hitting jump shots. It’s a three-point-shooting league now… at least this season. The likes of Josh Smith and Corey Brewer (and Trevor Ariza, and Pablo Prigioni…) have to help James Harden in a firefight against the Warriors’ bomb squad.
Golden State will definitely score at a high rate in this series. Houston has to find a way to keep pace. It’s not likely that the Rockets will be able to extend this series.
Series Prediction: Warriors in 5