Every NFL team wants to touch the Lombardi Trophy. But to win the Super Bowl, you first have to make the playoffs. The surest path to the playoffs is winning the division.
Wild-card teams have won Super Bowls, but that’s an uphill climb. Division winners are rewarded with home playoff games, so those eight division titles are coveted prizes that put teams in good position for postseason success.
These are the eight teams who will sit atop their divisions when the regular season ends.
AFC East
New England Patriots
The Patriots will have a chip on their shoulder because of Deflategate. The defending champions want to prove that there’s more to their success than footballs that may or may not have had the proper air pressure. They won’t pillage the entire league like the 2007 Spygate Patriots who went 16-0. But as long as Tom Brady, Rob Gronkowski and Jerod Mayo stay healthy, the Patriots will be able to hold off challenges from the improved Dolphins and Bills. The Jets have a nice defense but need a quarterback.
AFC North
Cincinnati Bengals
This division sent three teams to the playoffs last year. It won’t this year. The Steelers defense could be its worst since the days before Chuck Noll, and their powerful offense will be hampered by Maurkice Pouncey’s injury and the absence of Le’Veon Bell and Martavis Bryant early in the season. The Ravens should again be solid on defense, but on offense they’re relying on 36-year-old Steve Smith Sr. to repeat his bounceback season and soon-to-be-30-year-old journeyman running back Justin Forsett to replicate a season that was a statistical outlier. The Browns could have a feared defense, but they have no offense. That leaves the Bengals, who in Jeremy Hill have the division’s best running back not named Bell and a seemingly rejuvenated Geno Atkins on defense.
AFC South
Indianapolis Colts
The Texans have J.J. Watt but no real quarterback and the Titans and Jaguars have promising young quarterbacks but are a year or two away. The Colts, meanwhile, have won two straight division titles and advanced one round further in the playoffs in each of Andrew Luck’s three seasons. They reached the wild-card game in 2012, the divisional round in 2013 and the conference championship game in 2014. They’re on a mission to take the next step this year, and that starts with a division title.
AFC West
San Diego Chargers
The NFL is a quarterback league, and the Chargers will have the best one in the division this year in Philip Rivers. Yes, Rivers will be a better quarterback in 2015 than 39-year-old Peyton Manning. The future Hall of Famer’s arm is shot. He’s learning a new offense and his offensive line is a mess. Chiefs QB Alex Smith isn’t going to light the world on fire and Raiders QB Derek Carr is still learning. In San Diego, meanwhile, linebacker Melvin Ingram looks poised for a breakout year and Keenan Allen could become an elite receiver in his third season.
NFC East
Philadelphia Eagles
Sam Bradford’s durability is always going to be a concern, but since predicting injuries is even harder than predicting games, the assumption is that Bradford will enjoy a renaissance in Chip Kelly’s offense. The Cowboys are going to regret letting DeMarco Murray go to Philadelphia, if they don’t already. The committee of Joseph Randle, Darren McFadden and Lance Dunbar has been so unimpressive that Dallas desperately acquired Seahawks backup Christine Michael. Expect a sophomore slump from Giants receiver Odell Beckham Jr. as defenses blanket him and see if Victor Cruz is healthy enough to beat them. And the Redskins are just a dumpster fire.
NFC North
Minnesota Vikings
Many expect a two-horse race between the Packers and Lions, but look at the Vikings gaining on the outside. Jordy Nelson’s injury will hurt the Packers more than most people think, and that defense will give up some points. While Matt Stafford remains inconsistent in Detroit and Jay Cutler adjusts to yet another offensive coordinator in Chicago, Teddy Bridgewater will emerge as a top-tier quarterback in the NFL. Bridgewater was rated the best quarterback in the NFL over the last five weeks of the 2014 season, according to Pro Football Focus. Charles Johnson can draw enough coverage to free up Mike Wallace for the occasional deep ball, and a refreshed Adrian Peterson will tilt the division’s balance of power.
NFC South
New Orleans Saints
It’s going to take more than seven victories to win the division this year. Nine might do it, though. The Saints lost Jimmy Graham, but Brandin Cooks could take the league by storm if he stays healthy. The Saints strengthened their offensive line by adding center Max Unger in the Graham deal, and they have a nice 1-2 punch at running back with Mark Ingram and C.J. Spiller. Every defense in the division is suspect except for the Panthers, but the offense doesn’t have enough firepower for a repeat.
NFC West
Seattle Seahawks
This will be a tough division to win, and the Seahawks will look vulnerable at times. But the addition of Jimmy Graham adds a dimension to the offense and the defense will remain a force with or without Kam Chancellor. Even if Carson Palmer stays healthy, there’s nothing the Cardinals quarterback can do about being 35. The Cardinals only out-scored their opponents by 11 points last season. If they don’t win those close games this season, they could be in for a decline. The Rams are offensively challenged and the 49ers have lost too much talent.