The first week of the NFL regular season tends to bring forth many overreactions from fans and analysts.
While there is valuable information to be gained from the first weekend, sweeping assumptions made about any one team or player must be labeled hasty at best and reckless at worst. One game is just too small a sample size.
Remember, three of last season’s final four NFL teams—the Patriots, Packers and Colts— lost decisively during Week 1 in 2014. Many thought the Dolphins were taking the AFC East crown, and Aaron Rodgers looked nothing like an MVP. The 49ers—a .500 team by season’s end—trounced the eventual 12-win Cowboys by two scores in Dallas.
As Rodgers once said, R-E-L-A-X.
Now that 14 of the 16 games in Week 1 are complete, here are the biggest overreactions from the first slate of Sunday games in 2015:
5) Could Jameis Winston and Marcus Mariota be a 1998 redux?
Once upon a time, Peyton Manning and Ryan Leaf were the first two picks in an NFL draft. We all know how that one-sided quarterbacking story ended up.
Given the manner in which Marcus Mariota’s Titans dismantled Jameis Winston’s Buccaneers in Week 1, it wouldn’t be surprising if similar (but premature) comparisons are made—with Mariota representing Manning and Winston taking the role of Leaf—between this year’s pair of quarterback selections who were the first two players taken in the draft. The second overall pick, Mariota threw four touchdowns and had a perfect passer rating in his NFL debut, while Winston—the top selection—tossed two interceptions, including a pick-six. Tennessee beat Tampa Bay by a convincing 42-14 scoreline.
Did the Bucs pass up Manning to take Leaf? Slow down.
Manning once threw three picks in his NFL debut, a Colts loss (in fact, Manning threw 11 interceptions during his first four games). 14 years later, Robert Griffin III was nearly perfect in his first NFL start. Manning is a first-ballot Hall of Famer, while Griffin is now a scout-team safety.
The lesson here: Young quarterbacks are best not judged off one game. Mariota outplayed Winston—there’s absolutely no doubting that—but the career arcs of the two players were not decided when the clock in Tampa Bay hit 0:00 Sunday afternoon. Mariota has a chance to be very good. Winston has an equal chance to be very good. Both could still bust. We are far too early in the process to know anything more.
4) The Seahawks and Colts are not the powerhouses we thought they were.
Count Seattle and Indianapolis out at your own peril.
Neither team was given a warm welcome to the 2015 season, with the Seahawks losing in overtime to the Rams and the Colts getting bullied up in Buffalo by the Bills. 0-1 starts aren’t fun, but they also aren’t death wishes, especially when it’s clear why both upsets happened.
Both the Seahawks and Colts are shaky along the offensive line. The Rams and Bills might have the two most dominate front-fours in the NFL. Mix the two football elements together and the outcome is almost always the same.
There is still reason for some worry, though. The Seahawks didn’t play like the same defense minus safety Kam Chancellor, and the Colts defense still looked softer than Charmin. We don’t know if these problems are going to go away anytime soon.
However, we do know that Russell Wilson quarterbacks the Seahawks and Andrew Luck quarterbacks the Colts. We also know that these two teams won 27 games last season.
Don’t forget, the Rams sent the Seahawks to 3-3 with a win in St. Louis last October. The Colts were 0-2 after two weeks of play. Let’s not bury two teams many considered Super Bowl favorites before Sunday’s action kicked off.
3) Is Peyton Manning rapidly declining right in front of our eyes?
Week 1 is going to make it easy to confirm the regression of 39-year-old Peyton Manning, who threw for just 175 yards and zero scores on 40 attempts during an ugly win over the Ravens. He tossed a bad pick-six and did not lead a single touchdown drive for the Broncos offense.
The five-time MVP still probably deserves more than a week in 2015 before he’s left for dead.
Yes, Manning now throws 75 instead of 90, and he’s mobility is all but gone. But he is also just one regular-season game into a new offense under Gary Kubiak, and his offensive line—featuring four new starters—struggled badly against a really good Baltimore front. When an offense is new and pressure is suddenly introduced, the whole process can go haywire like it did Sunday for Denver. The Ravens will rough up a few offenses in 2015.
Speaking of which, Father Time has kicked around his fair share of great players. Regression at quarterback can come in an instant. Manning wasn’t good to end 2014 and he wasn’t good Sunday.
But let’s give him time. If we’re seeing the same Manning come October, it’ll be a different story. For now, the smartest and most productive quarterback in NFL history deserves the benefit of the doubt. If anyone can overcome physical deterioration at the position, it’s Manning.
2) Is Megatron no longer the dominant playmaker he’s always been?
The Detroit Lions held receiver Calvin Johnson out of this preseason, in hopes of saving their best offensive player for the games that really matter. But save for a 28-yard catch on Detroit’s first drive Sunday in San Diego, Megatron hardly made a tangible impact.
The soon-to-be 30-year-old receiver caught just two passes on four targets for 39 yards. The Lions, meanwhile, gave up a 21-3 lead and lost, 33-28.
Could it be possible that Johnson, who dealt with nagging injuries for most of last season, is no longer one of the game’s elite receivers? Don’t bank on it.
The Chargers bracketed Megatron for most of the contest, and instead of forcing the football to No. 81 regardless of the coverage, quarterback Matthew Stafford went to alternate options. This seems in line with the direction Jim Caldwell and Joe Lombardi have been trying to provide Stafford with in the offense’s second year.
Let’s also give some credit to the Chargers defense. Golden Tate managed just 24 yards on eight targets, and Stafford was under pressure for most of the afternoon.
The Lions will adjust. The second-half results from San Diego demand some degree of change. I doubt Johnson has another four-target game during the rest of the season.
1) Are the Bills and Chiefs true contenders?
The Bills and Chiefs were among the most impressive teams on Sunday.
Buffalo put a hurting on Andrew Luck and the Colts, allowing just 14 points and generating three turnovers against an offense many believe to be among the best in the game. Quarterback Tyrod Taylor was equally impressive, throwing for 195 yards and a score and rushing for 41 more in an efficient starting debut.
The Chiefs roughed up the Texans in Houston, using early takeaways and three touchdowns from Alex Smith to jump out to a 27-6 lead. Kansas City then coasted to a seven-point win.
Despite two undeniably impressive opening victories, it’s too early to label either the Bills or Chiefs as serious contenders.
Much like in 2014, Buffalo is going to play tenacious defense. The Colts offensive line won’t be the last unit the Bills embarrass this season. The question mark in Buffalo remains on the offensive side, where Taylor now has exactly one start under his belt. He played a terrific game Sunday, but the Bills also protected him during a game that played out exactly to plan. He’ll face Bill Belichick and the Patriots next weekend, which figures to be a much better test of where he’s at.
Many of the same concerns exist in Kansas City. The defense looks like a wrecking ball, but can Alex Smith elevate those around him? Smith threw for three scores in the first half Sunday, but one came with Travis Kelce wide open and another developed off a simple swing pass. We’ll know a little more about Smith and the Chiefs after they take on the Broncos in Denver next Thursday night.
This isn’t to take anything away from either club. Few teams will want to play the Bills or Chiefs in 2015. It just seems likely that we’ll learn more about each team’s ability to contend in Week 2 than in Week 1.