After three weeks last season, Aaron Rodgers and the Packers were an unrelaxed 1-2, and Tom Brady was preparing to play a Chiefs team that would beat him and the Patriots 41-14 on Monday Night Football.
If forced to pick an MVP ahead of Week 4 in 2014, not a single voter would have taken Rodgers, who went on to win the award. Brady also recovered, leading New England to another Super Bowl title.
The moral here: Things can change very quickly from September to December in the NFL.
The top MVP candidates after three games in a season are rarely the top options come the end of Week 17, but the 2015 season might be a unique one. The top five ahead of Week 4 have some staying power.
5. Julio Jones, Atlanta Falcons
The game’s most dominant receiver leads the NFL in catches (34), targets (46), receiving yards (440), yards after the catch by a receiver (120) and first-down receptions (23). His numbers boggle the mind, but he’s not all stats. Jones’ 44-yard catch in Week 1 set up Atlanta’s game-winning field goal, and his 38-yard reception a week later allowed the Falcons to punch in the go-ahead points in the fourth quarter. In Week 3, he scored two second-half touchdowns as Atlanta came from behind to get to 3-0. Insane numbers and winning plays are the lifeblood of any MVP.
4. Andy Dalton, Cincinnati Bengals
Dalton has the smallest probability of staying among the MVP candidates long-term, but he’s undoubtedly one of the top options after three weeks. His passer rating of 121.0 ranks second in the NFL, and he’s one of only three quarterbacks to throw at least eight touchdowns and one or fewer interceptions. The Bengals are also 3-0, in large part due to Dalton’s three touchdowns in a win over San Diego and two incredible scoring plays (both to A.J. Green) late against the Ravens in Baltimore last week. If he can finally pull it together on a national stage—the Bengals have four prime-time games in 2015—Dalton will remain in the MVP discussion.
3. Carson Palmer, Arizona Cardinals
Palmer leads the NFL’s top scoring offense through three games. In fact, only a handful of teams in league history have scored more than Arizona’s 126 points to start the season. The 35-year-old Palmer has been sublime, throwing nine touchdowns with a passer rating of 119.8. Five of those scores have gone to Larry Fitzgerald, who suddenly looks 25 again with Palmer healthy. Most scoff at ESPN’s QBR, but only Ben Roethlisberger has a higher mark than Arizona’s starting quarterback this season. The 3-0 Cardinals also look like a true contender, and quarterbacks for title contenders typically have a chance at MVP. If his knees cooperate, Palmer will be right there by season’s end.
2. Tom Brady, New England Patriots
Deflate this. Brady is completing 72.2 percent of his passes to start 2015, and his 1,112 passing yards lead the NFL by almost 150. Only Brady and Rodgers have five or more touchdown passes and zero interceptions. At his current pace, Brady will throw for nearly 6,000 yards with 48 touchdowns and no picks. That might be unreasonable, even for Brady, but it’s not at all difficult to envision him throwing for 5,000 yards, 40 or more touchdowns and just a handful of interceptions. And we know the Patriots are going to win at least 11 or 12 games. Brady, along with the next guy on this list, are heavy, heavy MVP favorites.
1. Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers
Rodgers takes the top spot, but only by a hair. You can’t go wrong with either No. 12. The Packers’ version threw five touchdown passes to finish off Week 3, giving him 10 for the season. Only 11 quarterbacks in NFL history have thrown 10 or more scores through three games, and only two—Rodgers and Peyton Manning—have done it without an interception. He’s on pace to throw 53 touchdowns without a turnover in 2015. Given how stingy Rodgers is with giving the ball away, and how easy he makes it look getting the ball in the end zone, no stat line should be deemed impossible. In a perfect world, Rodgers and Brady would share the MVP. They both look well on their way to producing a pair of historic quarterbacking seasons.