The leash for NFL coaches is very short nowadays, as the league has seen 30 head coaching changes since 2012.
The Miami Dolphins became the latest team to axe their head coach, firing Joe Philbin on Monday after a 27-14 loss to the New York Jets in Week 4 dropped his record to 24-28 through 52 games. Miami picked tight ends coach Dan Campbell to serve as the team’s interim coach.
Philbin is the first head coach to go in 2015, but he won’t be the last. The NFL is averaging just over seven firings per season over the last four years.
Here are seven candidates who are already on the hot seat after four weeks of play in 2015.
Chuck Pagano, Indianapolis Colts
The Colts are 2-2 and lead the AFC South once again, but not all is well in Indianapolis. The well publicized friction between Pagano and general manager Ryan Grigson remains. And while some coaches have the job security that comes with a multi-year deal, Pagano’s contract is up after 2015.
Despite three straight division titles and a trip to the AFC title game last season, the Colts don’t look capable of making a long run in the postseason this year. Pagano will likely need one to stay in Indianapolis long-term. An in-season firing is entirely possible if the Colts somehow nose dive out of playoff contention.
Gus Bradley, Jacksonville Jaguars
Through 36 games, Bradley’s Jaguars have won just eight times. Granted, he took over a massive rebuilding project back in 2013. But fast forward to 2015, and Jacksonville doesn’t look considerably closer to competing for much of anything. The Jaguars gave up 51 points and were blown out by the New England Patriots in Week 3, only to travel to Indianapolis last week and lose a game in which Andrew Luck didn’t even play.
Jacksonville is approaching must-win territory with the one-win Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Houston Texans up next on the schedule. Bradley will be in big trouble if his team manages to fall to 1-5, especially with a trip to London to face the Buffalo Bills before the bye. Just ask Philbin about that long plane ride home.
Jay Gruden, Washington Redskins
Washington’s come-from-behind win over the Eagles in Week 4 cooled Gruden’s seat, but only for now. Still, the Redskins are 2-2 and in the thick of the NFC East race. Maybe Washington will ride quarterback Kirk Cousins and remain in the division hunt. More likely, a team known for self-destructing will go down that road once again at some point in 2015.
Cousins has had his moments, but he’s still a quarterback with 27 turnovers (23 interceptions, four lost fumbles) in 18 career games. An implosion is likely on the horizon. Washington has road games against the Falcons (4-0), Jets (3-1) and Patriots (3-0) over the next four weeks. Gruden’s seat will be steamy if Washington is suddenly 3-5 or 2-6.
Jim Tomsula, San Francisco 49ers
No coach should be on the hot seat after just four games, but it sure looks like Tomsula will be feeling the heat by the end of the season. His 49ers have started 1-3, and it’s been ugly. San Francisco ranks dead last in points scored (48), and no team has a worse point differential (-62).
It doesn’t help that Tomsula’s quarterback is regressing right in front of our eyes. The 49ers aren’t going to win many games with Colin Kaepernick playing as poorly as he has through the first four weeks. It wouldn’t be totally shocking if San Francisco goes on to win only three or four games, and Tomsula ends up a one-and-done head coach.
Mike Pettine, Cleveland Browns
Lose to the Oakland Raiders at home and you’re probably putting your job in jeopardy. Follow that up with a heart-breaking, only-happens-to-Cleveland type of loss in San Diego, and Pettine’s seat is starting to heat up. The Browns are 1-3 to start 2015, giving Pettine a 8-12 record over his first 20 games as head coach.
Included in the three losses this season are a 7-point defeat to the Raiders in Cleveland and a 3-point loss in San Diego after giving the Chargers two attempts at the game-winning kick in the final seconds.
And things don’t look to be getting any easier anytime soon. Look at the Browns’ upcoming schedule: It’s difficult to find another win before the 49ers come to town—in mid-December.
Sean Payton, New Orleans Saints
It’s possible that the return of Drew Brees combined with Week 4’s dramatic 26-20 win over the Cowboys in overtime will spark the Saints, who are now 1-3. Payton had better hope so. New Orleans is coming off its second 7-9 season in the past three years, and the 2015 Saints are already three games back of the Atlanta Falcons in the NFC South.
Given the week-to-week health of Brees’ shoulder and New Orleans’ rebuilt but still shaky defense, another sub-.500 record seems completely plausible. Would the Saints bring back Payton after a four or five-win season? Or maybe the better question is, would Payton even want to return?
Bill O’Brien, Houston Texans
The Texans are 1-3, with the lone win coming against a bad Buccaneers team. And their quarterback situation is an absolute mess. Head coach Bill O’Brien has already shuffled through the terrible tag team of Brian Hoyer and Ryan Mallett several times. They also suffered a blowout loss in Week 4, as the Texans fell behind 42-0 to Atlanta and ended up losing 48-21. They now have a primetime game coming up against the division’s top dog and will face the Colts—with the likely return of Andrew Luck—to kick off Week 5 on Thursday Night Football.
It sure looks like O’Brien’s job is already in jeopardy. He probably deserves a chance to coach a young quarterback of his choosing, but things could very easily blow up in his face before he gets that opportunity.