The Green Bay Packers are 5-0, and quarterback Aaron Rodgers has 13 touchdowns and a passer rating of 117.4.
These realities hide the fact that the Packers are going through some ups and downs on offense. And at least part of the problem appears to be Green Bay’s lack of a deep passing game.
The Packers are averaging 20.5 points per game over the last two weeks. Both ended in wins—a 17-3 victory over the 49ers in San Francisco and last Sunday’s 24-10 home win against the Rams—but neither was a showcase in offensive consistency. In fact, Green Bay leaned on a vastly improved defense to overcome the offense’s shortfalls in both games.
Several factors have come into play, including injuries up front and the quality of defensive opponent. A Packers offensive line missing right tackle Bryan Bulaga and T.J. Lang at various points over the last three weeks has also faced three strong pass-rushing teams. The logical answer to a shuffling front against a dominant pass rush is to get the ball out of the quarterback’s hand quickly.
The Packers have followed that script. Over Green Bay’s last three wins, 66 of Rodgers’ 107 pass attempts have traveled less than 10 yards in the air. He only completed two passes traveling over 20 yards; one on a free play against Kansas City (27-yard touchdown to James Jones) and a second on a sideline heave to Jones in San Francisco.
The Rams caught on in Week 5. St. Louis intercepted Rodgers twice, with both coming off plays in which defenders took advantage of Green Bay’s new tendencies. On the first, Rams safety/linebacker Mark Barron sat on the edge and read Rodgers’ short pass, tipping the ball in the air and causing the interception. On the second, Rams cornerback Trumaine Johnson sat on a short route to the outside and jumped Rodgers’ attempt. A later play should have ended in a third pick when Rodgers threw it right to defensive tackle Nick Fairley, who dropped into the middle field and played the short pass.
Rodgers did throw two touchdowns, and the Packers still beat the Rams by two scores. But his two scores were on intermediate throws in which his receivers scored after chewing up yards after the catch.
The Packers have two possible solutions.
One would be to start using second-year receiver Jeff Janis as the offense’s go-to vertical threat. He has the long speed necessary to get down the field, but Rodgers and the Packers clearly trust him very little in the offense at this point in his career.
The second is much more feasible, but it’s also more of a waiting game. The Packers appear to have a ready-made deep threat in Davante Adams, but the sophomore receiver is also nursing a lingering ankle injury. It’s unknown when he’ll return.
It seems the Packers are finally seeing the side effects of losing Jordy Nelson, who caught 11 passes over 40 yards in 2013 and 2014 before tearing his ACL in the preseason. While Green Bay is still producing in the passing game, the big plays down the field have all but dried up.
Eventually, the Packers will settle down along the offensive line and get healthy at receiver. The two factors could combine to provide a more capable downfield passing game, while also erasing some of the inconsistencies we’re seeing from Green Bay lately.