The surging Miami Dolphins will travel to play the undefeated New England Patriots at Gillette Stadium on Thursday night to kick off Week 8 of the 2015 NFL season.
According to current odds at Sportsbookreview.com, Miami is a 7.5-point underdog despite winning its last two games by a combined 46 points.
Here are five keys for the Dolphins in upsetting the Patriots on Thursday night:
1. Continue winning on the ground
A year ago, the Dolphins rushed for 191 yards and beat the Patriots by 13 points at home. Three months later, Miami gained just 76 yards on the ground and were blown out in New England. Running the ball looks like the great equalizer for the Dolphins. Luckily for Miami, no team has been better in the run game over the last two weeks.
Since Dan Campbell took over as interim head coach, the Dolphins have rushed for a league-high 428 yards—or an average of 224 yards per game. Lamar Miller has gained 288 of those yards. Miami needs another big night from Miller and the running game to beat New England.
2. Turnover free Ryan Tannehill
The Dolphins are 1-12 when Tannehill throws two or more interceptions in a game, including an 0-2 mark against New England. On the flip side, Miami is 20-3 when Tannehill finishes a game with a passer rating over 91.0.
There’s a lesson here. The Dolphins don’t need an otherworldly show from their quarterback on Thursday night. Instead, Tannehill just can’t throw away Miami’s chances at the upset. Turnovers are like blood in the water for the Patriots. Once your offense starts giving the ball back to Tom Brady, it can get ugly in a hurry.
3. Disruptive defensive line
After four weeks of hibernation, Miami’s defensive line has finally come to life the last two weeks. The unit now needs its most disruptive game of the season to combat Tom Brady. The Dolphins have everything they need, especially inside, where Ndamukong Suh could make life very difficult for Brady when attempting to move up in the pocket.
Since Campbell took over, Miami has 10 sacks, including six from Cam Wake and two from Suh. Just sacking Brady isn’t the primary goal, however. Consistent pressure is. The Dolphins paid millions of dollars on the defensive line, in hopes that winning the line of scrimmage would finally even the playing field against Brady. Miami’s theory will be put to the test Thursday night.
4. Big special teams play
Winning on the road in primetime often requires a game-changing play from either the defense or special teams. Considering the Patriots have only three turnovers this season, including zero at home, it might fall on Miami’s special teams to create the spark.
The Dolphins have a return weapon in Jarvis Landry, who already has a punt return for a touchdown this season. Kick returner Damien Williams also had two kick returns of at least 30 yards last week. Also, the Dolphins can’t afford any slip ups from kicker Andrew Franks. He missed an extra point in Houston last Sunday. Miami needs every point it can muster in New England.
5. Start fast
New England has lost four games since the start of the 2014 season. In two of the losses, teams got up on the Patriots early in the game. The Chiefs led 27-0 in Week 4 of last year, while the Packers jumped out to a 13-0 lead in Week 13. Every team wants to start fast and get a lead, regardless of opponent, but the Dolphins probably can’t get behind early and expect to come back and beat the Patriots in New England.
Miami has held first-half leads of 17-3 and 41-0 over the last two games, so maybe some momentum will carry over to Thursday night. The Dolphins need to take a lead and then ride Lamar Miller and a top pass-rush to the upset.