Through nine weeks, Carson Palmer of the Arizona Cardinals and Andy Dalton of the Cincinnati Bengals top ESPN’s statistical quarterback ranking system, better known as Total QBR.
Palmer has thrown 20 touchdowns and averaged 9.2 yards per attempt for the 6-2 Cardinals, while Dalton has 18 touchdowns and a 111.0 passer rating for the 8-0 Bengals. So far, so good for QBR.
The third player in ESPN’s statistical measure of quarterbacks is where everything goes haywire.
Trailing Palmer and Dalton isn’t Tom Brady, who is on pace to throw 44 touchdowns and just four interceptions for the 8-0 New England Patriots. It also isn’t Aaron Rodgers, who—despite his recent struggles—still has 19 touchdown passes and the fifth highest passer rating in the NFL.
The answer isn’t Drew Brees, Derek Carr, Philip Rivers, Ben Roethlisberger, Eli Manning or Tyrod Taylor.
Coming in third in ESPN’s Total QBR rankings is New York Jets quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick.
The journeyman signal caller certainly hasn’t played poorly in 2015. Fitzpatrick has completed almost 62 percent of his passes, with 13 touchdowns and seven interceptions. But he’s also No. 18 overall in traditional passer rating at 89.3.
According to ESPN, Fitzpatrick has four games with a QBR of at least 90.0 out of 100. His worst game came against the Philadelphia Eagles, when he threw three interceptions and had a QBR of 26.9.
Overall, Fitzpatrick gained big points in ESPN’s system for his running ability and avoidance of sacks.
Confused by QBR? Don’t feel bad. Most are. It’s a complicated metric contrived to help incorporate everything that goes into playing the quarterback position. But the added nuance has only made the systems more confusing for casual fans.
ESPN’s rough summary:
“The Total Quarterback Rating is a statistical measure that incorporates the contexts and details of those throws and what they mean for wins. It’s built from the team level down to the quarterback, where we understand first what each play means to the team, then give credit to the quarterback for what happened on that play based on what he contributed.”
Passer rating isn’t perfect, but it generally does a strong job of establishing a common sense quarterback hierarchy. QBR hasn’t gained much traction in recent years, probably because few understand it. And any metric claiming Fitzpatrick has had a better season than Tom Brady probably isn’t going to gain many points from fans looking for a new way to evaluate quarterbacks.
Fitzpatrick has played well for the 5-3 Jets. But Brady is playing the position as well as any player ever for the unbeaten Patriots.
Total QBR leaders after Week 9:
1. Carson Palmer, Cardinals (84.8)
2. Andy Dalton, Bengals (77.6)
3. Ryan Fitzpatrick, Jets (76.7)
4. Aaron Rodgers, Packers (74.3)
5. Tom Brady, Patriots (73.9)
6. Tyrod Taylor, Bills (72.6)
7. Drew Brees, Saints (71.2)
8. Eli Manning, Giants (70.1)
9. Brian Hoyer, Texans (69.4)
10. Ben Roethlisberger, Steelers (68.4)