If you’re still alive in your NFL survivor pool, consider yourself lucky. That jackpot is in your sights, so be careful who you pick as your Week 11 lock and use this list as your guide.
These four games could be upset material. The point spreads are based on Sports Book Review consensus odds as of Friday afternoon.
Indianapolis (+5) at Atlanta
Before their bye last week, the Colts (4-5) took the unbeaten Panthers to overtime and foiled the Broncos’ perfect record. The average margin in their seven games since Week 3 is 4.43 points. They’ve been in every game. Matt Hasselbeck, who will start in place of Andrew Luck, is 2-0 as a starter this season and he’ll be going up against a defense that lost to Blaine Gabbert two weeks ago. The Falcons (6-3), who also had a bye last week, have lost three of their last four and while Devonta Freeman has 48 receptions this year, his average yards per rush have gone down in each of the last three games, bottoming out with his 12-carry, 12-yard day at San Francisco in Week 9.
St. Louis (+2 1/2) at Baltimore
The Rams (4-5) have replaced Nick Foles with Case Keenum at quarterback. Keenum is 2-8 in his career as a starter, but this is the perfect setting for the 27-year-old to get his feet wet in his debut as the Rams’ starter. The Ravens (2-7) are allowing 271 passing yards per game, 26th in the NFL. So far the Ravens have only beaten the Mike Vick-led Steelers in overtime and the reeling Chargers. The Rams are the only team to win at Arizona this season and they took the NFC South-leading Vikings to overtime two weeks ago. However, they laid an egg last week, losing 37-13 at home to the Bears. That inconsistency shouldn’t be entirely surprising since the Rams are the youngest team in the NFL, according to Philly.com. They have a chance to take a step forward this week.
Tampa Bay (+6) at Philadelphia
The Eagles got off to a rare fast start last week against the Dolphins. After scoring 10 first-quarter points in their eight previous games combined, they scored 16 on Sunday only to blow a 16-3 lead and lose 20-19. Mark Sanchez replaced an injured Sam Bradford and threw an end-zone interception with less than five minutes left. Sanchez gets the start Sunday and he’ll be without half of his backfield tandem. Ryan Mathews is likely to sit with a concussion.
With #Eagles RB Ryan Mathews out with a concussion for Sunday, Kenjon Barner will get his first carries since 2013. Will be fascinating.
— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) November 20, 2015
That’s not exactly what Sanchez needs against the league’s seventh-ranked defense in yards per game (334.2) and the third stingiest defense in yards per carry (3.6). The Bucs have wins at New Orleans and at Atlanta under their belts this season.
Buffalo (+7) at New England
The Patriots (9-0) no longer would be unbeaten if Landon Collins could have hung on to an interception or if the Giants could have stopped them on fourth-and-10 on their game-winning drive last week.
The Patriots are starting to look vulnerable and Tom Brady is losing weapons by the week. Dion Lewis suffered a season-ending knee injury two weeks ago and Julian Edelman was lost at least for the regular season last week. Nine different players have started on New England’s injury-ravaged offensive line. The Giants sacked Brady three times Sunday and held him to his lowest passer rating (92.8) of the season. The Bills (5-4) have allowed an 82.4 passer rating, seventh-best in the league, and this is always a game Rex Ryan marks on his calendar.