No hitter these days hits .450 for the duration of a 162-game season and no pitcher maintains a 0.50 earned run average through September. Still, some of the outstanding individual performances over the first two weeks of 2016 give a glimpse of what’s to come.
It’s time to read between the stat lines and determine which of these hot starts are trends or aberrations.
Trevor Story
Seven home runs in seven big league games. And not just any seven…it was his first seven. He then went for two triples in a single game earlier this week at Coors Field and has already tallied 13 RBI. There’s no reason to think he can’t have a solid first season and be an impact player in the Rockies lineup in place of Jose Reyes. But if you think he’s going to remain anywhere close to this pace, you’re either related to him or you’ve been using too much of Colorado’s legalized recreational drugs. This started as a fairy tale, but is fading soon into reality. Sell
Nolan Arenado
Whether it’s the benefit of the Colorado air or simply seeing the ball better than normal, nearly the entire Rockies lineup is hot at the plate – having posted a league-best .300 batting average and having scored 58 runs. No Rockie has driven in more of those runs than the star third baseman – 14, to be exact. Half of his season total (along with two homers) came in Wednesday’s victory over San Francisco. His season is only nine games and 24 at-bats old, but his impact so far is ample proof that the 42-home run, 130-RBI output in 2015 was no fluke. Buy
Vince Velasquez
If there’s a rebuilding plan in Philadelphia, Velasquez better be part of it. Over the course of just two games, he’s already displayed the talents – and a nasty mix of pitches – that can make him the ace of the Phillies rotation in no time. The righty who was part of a trade with Houston last July overpowered the New York Mets over six three-hit innings. Then the 23-year-old topped it by providing the best-pitched outing of the young season: a complete game shutout on Thursday versus San Diego in which he allowed just three hits, no walks and struck out 16. Buy
Jeremy Hazelbaker
It seems like every year, there’s a new unsung Cardinals hero. For now, it’s the 28-year-old rookie right fielder out of Ball State University. With at least one hit in eight of St. Louis’ nine games, Hazelbaker – who’s only in the lineup because Tommy Pham is hurt and Randal Grichuk is underperforming – has built up a batting average of .481 along with three homers and seven RBI. But the tendencies he’s developed on the lower levels – including a 27 percent strikeout rate in Triple-A – are bound to catch up with him. Sell
Ian Kennedy
Ever since he went 21-4 with a 2.88 ERA for Arizona in 2011, Kennedy has been searching to regain that magic. He won 15 the next year. Then, his numbers worsened – to 15 losses last year. In that four-season span, however, the teams he pitched for weren’t contenders. Now a member of the defending champs, Kennedy appears rejuvenated: two starts, two wins, 14 strikeouts and an ERA of 0.66. Thanks to great support (on offense and in the field), his career is in revival mode. Buy
Jonathan Papelbon
His “choke job” on the eventual NL MVP did a good job to obscure the fact that Papelbon didn’t completely live up to expectations after coming to D.C. in a deadline deal. Despite all of that, he remained on the Nationals roster. And now we know why. At age 35, he has converted all five of his save opportunities – allowing just a measly run to Miami on April 10. Last September’s scuffle now a distant memory, Papelbon is showing us why he’s been one of the best closers in the league over the past decade…even if he’s still a jerk. Buy
Tyler White
Trevor Story isn’t the only first-year player to begin his big league career in thunderous fashion. White makes make up the other half of MLB’s first pair of rookies to win their respective league’s Player of the Week award together. Since that week, he’s pretty much kept up his blistering pace – batting .438 with three home runs and 10 runs driven in. Like Story, he was equally as much of an unknown when the season began. And like Story, he’ll eventually come back to earth. Sell
Chase Anderson
Oftentimes, a change of scenery is most beneficial. Anderson is hoping that theory is true. After a pair of so-so seasons as a Diamondback, he’s attempting to make it as a back-end rotation member in Milwaukee. It’s working so far. In 11 innings over two starts, his opponents have yet to tag him for an earned run. But it’ll take more than just a couple of outings to make anyone feel he’s turning it around. Past long-term trends suggest a regression. Anderson’s second half numbers are worse than those he posts during the first half. Sell