Breaking down the MLB Wild Card races

by | Sep 23, 2016

The respective battles for the final two MLB playoff spots in each league are living up to their descriptor.

With roughly a week of regular-season play remaining, both the AL and NL races have the potential to go down to the wire and feature plenty of unpredictable moments–and we’ve seen a lot already.

The Mets and Giants are currently tied and in position for the final two berths in the NL, but the Cardinals sit just behind them and are only one-half game back. And on the other side, six clubs are within three games in the AL. Here’s how things look right now.

The San Francisco Giants, at the All-Star break, appeared to be above this sort of fray – and better than any team in baseball. They held a league-best 57-33 record. But it’s been all downhill since. Bruce Bochy’s club is a league-worst 24-39 in the second half and staggering to the finish line.

By splitting a crucial home series with St. Louis, the Giants fell one game behind the New York Mets for the Wild Card’s top position while maintaining a one-game edge on the Cardinals for second.

New York, though, failed to build on its newfound lead. Instead, it was swept by Atlanta at home. The Cards took two of three in Colorado. And even though San Francisco continued to spiral by dropping two of three to the NL West-leading Dodgers, the trio ended Wednesday deadlocked at 80-72 apiece – marking just the second time in the divisional era (which dates back to 1969) when there was a three-way tie for a division or Wild Card lead this late in the season.

With St. Louis idle, victories the next night by New York (in dramatic, come-from-behind fashion) and San Francisco created a small measure of separation. However, there remains the possibility of a wacky scenario to precede the postseason.

Who has the edge over this final stretch? In terms of opponent strength, the Mets enjoy the easiest remaining schedule. But after three straight losses at the hands of an Atlanta team of 90-plus defeats, nothing’s for certain.

As these clubs lack consistency and exude mediocrity, it keeps the door slightly ajar for the Pittsburgh Pirates and Miami Marlins — four and 4.5 games out, respectively. Although there’s no indication either team is set to go on hot streak.

If you thought the NL field was a crowd, the AL race is a literal mob scene.

The Toronto Blue Jays and Baltimore Orioles, each fading from the surging Red Sox, are among the many left to slug it out for the consolation prizes. At 83-69, Toronto sits one game ahead of the Detroit Tigers, winners of four straight.

By virtue of a doubleheader sweep against Minnesota on Thursday, Brad Ausmus’ club leapfrogged struggling Baltimore, which has dropped six of its last ten, and into the second spot. The O’s best not look in the rear-view mirror, because it’s filled with other clubs eager to pass them.

The Houston Astros, behind the likely league MVP in Jose Altuve, are 1.5 games behind Detroit. Only a half-game separates them and the Seattle Mariners — ever-consistent and never spectacular.

And somehow, despite losing four straight at Fenway Park, the New York Yankees (backed by their amazing young catcher, Gary Sanchez) still can’t be counted out at three games behind.

The one team that has faded away, thanks to a recent three-game losing streak, is the defending World Series champions. Kansas City apparently peaked in August — only to peter out in September.

So, how in the world do you untangle this jumble? Head-to-head match-ups over the next week will do plenty to clear the picture: the Yankees pay a visit to Toronto over the weekend, the Blue Jays and Orioles meet up starting on Monday, and the same goes for the Mariners and Astros.

This playoff expansion, which began in the mid-1990s and evolved to its current iteration in 2012, was created with the idea of keeping more teams’ World Series hopes alive while sustaining fan interest.

Regardless if you embrace it or denounce it, one thing holds true: The Wild Card, especially this year, has fulfilled its purpose.