Bold Predictions for the Second Half of the 2014 MLB Season

by | Jul 18, 2014

We have witnessed outstanding pitching, superb rookie performances and a fair share of great finishes so far in 2014. Most teams have played up to expectations. Still, there are clubs that are far off from most preseason prognostications.

It’s one thing to make observations on events that are firmly placed in the rear-view mirror. It’s another to step out and make predictions on what’s to come in the days and months ahead.

That said, there’s no fear here with this bold forecast.

Rays Make the Playoffs
It would have been very easy to bury the Rays for good when they were 24-42 on June 10—coming off their 14th loss in 15 games. In fact, the case can still be made that Tampa is done this year as far as contending is concerned (44-53, 9.5 games back in AL East).

Multiple pitching injuries, not to mention lousy defense and an abundant sense of underachievement, were to blame for its placement in the division’s cellar.

But if there’s any manager or any team that can overcome these hardships, it’s Joe Maddon and his Tampa Bay Rays. It doesn’t hurt to have a left-handed ace in David Price, either. The headline subject in many trade rumors, Price has kept his value high by winning four straight decisions and having a standout month (1.14 ERA, 0.97 WHIP).

His significance to the club and the lack of a truly great offer from other clubs will keep Price in Tampa past the July 31 trade deadline. With that, and the hitting talents of Evan Longoria and James Loney, the Rays can take advantage of a weakened division and reel in other playoff contenders.

In the end, an eight game deficit in the Wild Card is going to be erased. Reminiscent of its comeback in 2011, Tampa edges out Seattle for the second Wild Card spot.

The Biggest Deadline Deal Has Already Happened

It wasn’t a surprise that Jeff Samardzija got traded out of Chicago. What was surprising was the where and when. Billy Beane pulled the trigger on July 4th…not only getting the Cubs’ right-handed ace, but landing rotation mate Jason Hammel as well. Suddenly, a deep A’s staff was that much deeper.

Many big names have been swirling as being on the trading block. David Price, Chase Utley, and Jonathan Papelbon are the most notable. All are going to maintain the same address come August. As parity remains abundant, there fewer and fewer sellers. Thus, driving the amount of trade possibilities down and increasing the likelihood that those stars stay put. 

Granted, the next 13 days will see teams make swaps that have short-term and long-term effects. Nothing, though, will surpass the significance of the move Billy Beane and the A’s made on Independence Day.

Jose Abreu Hits 50 Home Runs
This isn’t necessarily going out on a limb, considering that Abreu stands at 29 home runs in 82 games despite being out of the White Sox lineup for just over two weeks with an ankle injury. But many rookies hit a wall in the months of August and September—either due to the fatigue of playing a longer schedule than they normally would in the minors or due to opposing pitchers figuring them out.

Abreu may, in fact, slow down a bit, but not enough to prevent him from breaking Mark McGwire’s rookie record of 49 home runs (set back in 1987).

Gregory Polanco Wins NL Rookie of the Year
The hype machine was ratcheted way up for the big league entrance of this multi-talented outfielder. Upon joining the Pirates on June 6, he made an immediate impact.

He had a five-hit game on June 13, which included his first career home run. Soon after, he became the first player in franchise history to record a hit in each of his first eight games—ultimately totaling up an 11-game hitting streak.

With a weak NL rookie class, even a truncated inaugural season in the majors will be enough to put Rookie of the Year voters in his corner. And if his bat or his speed doesn’t convince you, maybe his defense will.

Andrew McCutchen Wins NL MVP Again
Polanco may have provided a spark to a once-slumbering Pirates squad, but McCutchen is the driving force behind Pittsburgh’s charge.

Following a May in which he had zero homers and nine RBI, McCutchen has made up for it since then. In June, he blasted eight home runs and drove in 25 runs. It’s been more of the same in July, with five homers and 13 RBI as he’s raised his batting average to .324 (fifth-best in the NL).

His performance has been reflected in his team’s resurgence—pulling to within 3.5 games of first place in the NL Central. This isn’t like the inexperienced Pirate teams of the past that wilted in the late summer heat. With a leader like McCutchen remaining hot, Pittsburgh can nab a Wild Card spot for the second straight year—and their center fielder will again be rewarded for his efforts.

Nationals Take NL East by 10 Games
This may say more about the Braves than the Nationals. However, Washington’s improved health is also a factor. Since Bryce Harper’s return, the Nats are 8-4 and have the division lead. The insertion of Doug Fister (after starting the year on the DL) has made a once-strong rotation even better.

It’s only a matter a time before this group of talented hitters and pitchers come together as they continue to share that first place hold with Atlanta as the second half commences.

Keeping pace by taking care of weak opponents, the Braves have been victorious in 12 of their past 17 contests. Come late July, however, the schedule becomes far tougher. Between July 29 and August 24, they have 22 games against teams over .500 (Dodgers, Mariners, Nationals, A’s, Pirates, Reds). Can the regressing pitching staff withstand this potential barrage? Can an offense that ranks among the worst in the NL muster up enough support to win crucial ball games? The evidence says no. 

Ron Washington and Kirk Gibson Fired before Season’s End
Combining injuries and underachieving play, the Texas Rangers are in complete freefall. It started with Prince Fielder’s season-ending surgery and has continued with horrid pitching and a struggling offense. Once a .500 team in mid-June, the Rangers went into the All-Star break having lost eight straight and 22 of 25 games.

It might seem like overreaction at this point, especially since Washington did lead Texas to consecutive World Series appearances in 2010 and 2011. But the downfall is so severe and a there doesn’t appear to be a turnaround coming soon. The only way to fix that (as just or unjust as it may seem) is to fire the manager.

Kirk Gibson didn’t have the same type of talent in front of him at the start of this season. That doesn’t make the D-backs efforts in 2014 any less disappointing. Arizona sits 13.5 games back in the NL West mainly due to a run differential that is second-worst in baseball. The only team worse? Yes, the Rangers.

Gibson, like Washington, will be getting pink slips in late September while their clubs will have interim managers finishing out the year.

Orioles and Dodgers in the World Series
It’s a slight alteration from what was predicted just prior to the regular season. So, seeing the Dodgers where they are is no surprise by any stretch. All of the races in the NL are competitive and up-for-grabs—including the NL West. It won’t stay that way into September, as L.A. will separate from San Francisco thanks mainly to a deep pitching rotation.

That starting staff, led by the dominant Clayton Kershaw and supported further by Zach Greinke, will be awfully tough to beat in a five or seven-game series.

Baltimore’s arms are as renowned, but have improved since the calendar turned to June and have the AL’s third best team ERA in July (3.05). But what powers the Orioles are the bats. Nelson Cruz, Adam Jones, Chris Davis help form a productive lineup, while a healthier Manny Machado readily makes defensive gems at third.

The talent pool in the AL East has thinned since the season began. Boston and Tampa struggled out of the gate, while the Yankees and Blue Jays have stumbled in the summer. Baltimore can pull away with the division and posses enough clout to overcome the pitching of Detroit or Oakland. No one’s talking much about the O’s now, which makes them a perfect dark horse contender.