To all of those who assumed the Tigers and A’s to be in this position at the beginning of August, the two teams that will actually play for the American League pennant have exemplified the unpredictable nature of this season.
What the Kansas City Royals and Baltimore Orioles also proved was that the means of arriving at the ALCS can vary significantly. But the results in the Division Series were the same—sweeping their respective opponents and strengthening their World Series hopes.
Offense:
The method by which the Royals look to score runs and the strategy used by the Orioles are on opposite sides of the spectrum. That’s especially true when it comes to speed. Look no further than the final tally for stolen bases. Kansas City had the most, Baltimore the least.
Royal running has continued to shine this postseason—most prominently in the Wild Card victory—when seven different players collectively tied a playoff record for steals in a single game.
What the Orioles lack in swiftness they make up for in power. Led by the league leader in home runs, Nelson Cruz, the O’s belted an MLB-best 211 round-trippers over the course of the regular season. Cruz kept up his torrid pace in the ALDS versus Detroit with two more homers as well as five RBI, 12 total bases and a .500 average.
.@ncboomstick23 owns a career .710 slugging percentage and a 1.059 OPS in #postseason play. — MLB Stat of the Day (@MLBStatoftheDay) October 6, 2014
Also contributing heavily to the pop in the Baltimore lineup has been Adam Jones (29 HRs, 96 RBI, 30 doubles) and Chris Davis (26 HRs). The ladder may not participate in this series, however, as his suspension for Adderall won’t end for five more games—and may leave him off the roster.
The Royals were the antithesis of the Orioles when it came to the long ball. Their team home run total was a meager 95. As you might expect, that’s the worst output for any club in 2014. However, the Kansas City bats have come alive lately—especially at crucial points. This timely hitting has even included some balls going over the fence. Take, for instance, the first two games of the Division Series in Anaheim. The Royals did in the Angels with a Game 1, 11th inning home run by Mike Moustakas that broke a 2-2 tie. One night later, it was Eric Hosmer with the big blow (also in the 11). His two-run homer led to a 4-1 victory.
In the long term, Alex Gordon was tops on the club for the regular season in nearly every major offensive category and has even received MVP discussion for his efforts.
Defense:
The all-too-often axiom in football, “Defense wins championships,” can most certainly be applied when observing the leather flashed by these teams. If you’re in need of any visual proof from a Royals perspective, just take a look Lorenzo Cain robbing the Angels with a diving grab on successive plays.
That was just one of several highlights Kansas City’s outfielders have provided over the past 10 days. Baltimore’s may not be as spectacular, but they are equally effective—if not more. With Adam Jones, Alejandro De Aza and Nick Markakis showcasing outstanding range, this trio can prevent many would-be hits from falling and, thus, limit run-scoring chances.
The O’s and Royals are about dead even when it comes to outfield prowess. The same can be said of their slick play in the infield. Manny Machado’s loss is a bad break for Baltimore, but J.J. Hardy’s presence on the left side of the infield can somewhat make up for it. Hardy has won a Gold Glove in each of the past two seasons, while Eric Hosmer was the first base recipient last year.
Caleb Joseph should see more time at backstop for the Orioles as he attempts to limit the Royals’ fleet feet. The 28-year-old catcher threw out 40 percent of baserunners in comparison to veteran Nick Hundley’s 19 percent success rate.
Starting Pitching:
Neither rotation will overwhelm you with the presence of a Clayton Kershaw, Max Scherzer, Adam Wainwright or Madison Bumgarner. In fact, both Kansas City and Baltimore rank near the bottom of the league when it comes to strikeouts from its starting pitchers. But in today’s baseball, where the bludgeon-ball era is mostly a thing of the past, no team gets to the playoffs—much less the ALCS—without a balanced staff.
The Royals are headed by James Shields, who will get the ball in Game 1 on Friday night at Camden Yards. Shields was tops in the rotation in wins (14) and strikeouts (180) and has provided postseason experience to a team filled with young players embarking on new ground. One of those youngsters is 23-year-old Yordano Ventura, who led the team with a 3.20 ERA to go along with his 14 victories. Eight years older, but with just as much playoff familiarity, Jason Vargas was solid in his lone LDS start—allowing two runs in six innings against the powerful Los Angeles Angels.
One standout in the Orioles’ sweep of Detroit was Bud Norris, with 6.1 scoreless innings of work and the win in the series-clinching game.
Likely Game 1 starter Chris Tillman also got a ‘W’ against the Tigers as he allowed two earned runs and four hits in five innings. Whatever Norris and Tillman have right now, Wei-Yin Chen (who led the club with 16 victories) would like some.
The lone disappointment from the Orioles staff recently, Chen exited Game 2 after 3.2 innings with five runs and seven hits on his stat line. He also lost his final two regular season outings.
Relief Pitching:
Buck Showalter has plenty of quality bullpen arms at his disposal, and can utilize them better than any skipper in the league. Darren O’Day, Tommy Hunter and lefty Andrew Miller each finished with regular season ERAs under 3.00. Miller’s acquisition from the Boston Red Sox near the trade deadline has proven to be one of the most underrated deals of the season and the envy of clubs (namely the Tigers and Dodgers) who could have greatly used his talents.
Closing it out is Zach Britton—a man of 37 saves and a WHIP of 0.90. With this group stabilizing opposing offenses, Baltimore was able to scratch out the most one-run victories in 2014.
The Royals counter with a group that isn’t quite as polished, but possesses just as much ability. In 19 innings this postseason, K.C.’s bullpen has allowed five earned runs, has a .185 batting average against, and has struck out 21. Greg Holland’s 46 saves was just two behind the Major League best, and his 12.99 Ks per nine innings were just behind Wade Davis.
Brandon Finnegan, who has gone from the College World Series in June with TCU to pressure cooker of MLB postseason in October with Kansas City, can also top 100 miles per hour with regularity.
Mangers:
The shrewd nature by which each manager orchestrates through a game is easily apparent, and the two have a distinct specialization.
Buck Showalter’s strength is, as stated above, in creating the best possible match-ups for his club during late-inning situations. While Buck is practical, Ned Yost is outside-the-box. His over-tendency to employ the bunt has been a point of derision for some…but it usually works. So does his need for speed.
Yost’s small-ball approach is counterculture to what was normally thought of as winning baseball in the current era. That said, he does not hold the cards when it comes to experience. Although he’s yet to reach the World Series, Showalter has been at the helm of more good teams: the Yankees in 1994 and 1995, the Diamondbacks in 1999, and with the O’s two years ago. This success rate gives him the edge in this fascinating battle of baseball wits.
Prediction:
These two have faced each other seven times this year, and every neutral observer hopes they play the same amount for this series. Many have already embraced the Royals for their style of play and for the great storyline they’ve presented in October—a franchise that has gone from doormats to the doorstep of the World Series.
But the Orioles have the better offense, the better manager and a slightly better bullpen—trumping whatever destiny has in store as they inch the Charm City closer to its first title since 1983.
The Royals topped the Orioles in four out of those seven regular season meetings. This time around, the wins will be in Baltimore’s favor. Orioles in seven