After much anticipation, the final week of the 2014 NFL regular season is rapidly approaching. Two playoff berths are still up for grabs, and six teams have a shot at one of those spots.
All the Week 17 action will take place on Sunday. Of the 16 games set to be played, 10 of them have playoff implications. Two involve playoff teams that will likely rest their starters, and four will be watched only by die-hard fans of teams already looking forward to the draft.
Five teams in the NFC are 11-4. They’re all headed to the postseason, but the seeding has yet to be determined. Only the Cowboys know they’ll host a playoff game. They just don’t know if it will be in the wild card or divisional round. The Seahawks, Cardinals, Lions and Packers all have no idea where or when they’ll be playing.
All those questions will be answered on Sunday. Here’s a look at 10 games that will shuffle the playoff deck.
No. 10: Cardinals (11-4) at 49ers (7-8)
As far as playoff implications go, this NFC West matchup is the weakest of the 10 games on this list.
Whether they win or lose this game, the Cardinals are almost certain to be the No. 5 seed in the NFC and will suffer the indignity of going on the road to face whichever team with a losing record wins the NFC South.
The Cardinals can get the top seed and home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. But they would need a win and a Seahawks loss at home to the Rams, among other things. They could also end up as the second or third seed, but all of those scenarios involve a Seahawks loss or tie, which seems unlikely.
The only way Arizona would drop to the No. 6 seed would be if the team loses at San Francisco, and the Cowboys-Redskins and Lions-Packers games both end in ties.
Despite being out of playoff contention, the 49ers showed last Saturday that they’re up for playing the role of spoiler when they jumped out to a 28-7 halftime lead against the Chargers before blowing it. But in this case, there isn’t much spoiling that can be done. The Cardinals are probably hitting the road for the playoffs anyway.
No. 9: Raiders (3-12) at Broncos (11-4)
The Broncos could have wrapped up a first-round bye on Monday night, but lost 37-28 at Cincinnati. Now, they just have to beat the Raiders to lock up the No. 2 seed. It seems like an easy task, but the Broncos have looked mortal lately.
Peyton Manning threw four interceptions for the first time since 2010 on Monday night. He’s been picked off six times and has thrown just five touchdown passes over the last four weeks. The Raiders, meanwhile, have won three of their last five games after an 0-10 start, although none of those wins have come on the road.
If the Raiders beat the Broncos for the first time since the 2011 season opener, and the Bengals beat the Steelers, the Broncos would fall to the No. 3 seed. And, most importantly, Manning’s 38-year-old body wouldn’t get any rest.
No. 8: Rams (6-9) at Seahawks (11-4)
There’s not too much to hit on here. If the Seahawks win, they’re the top seed in the NFC.
The Rams shut out the Raiders and Redskins in Weeks 13 and 14, but have come back to earth with home losses to the Cardinals and Giants. They don’t have much more of a chance to play spoiler than the Raiders do. But if they manage to pull off what would be a shocking upset, the Seahawks could tumble all the way down to the No. 5 seed. If that happens, they’d have to do without the help of the “12th man” at CenturyLink Field to repeat as champions .
No. 7: Cowboys (11-4) at Redskins (4-11)
For the first time since 2010, the Cowboys won’t be playing in the regular season finale on Sunday Night Football. And unlike the last three years, their playoff lives don’t depend on a Week 17 game.
The Redskins put a damper on the Eagles’ playoff hopes with a 27-24 win at Washington on Saturday. The Eagles were eliminated from playoff contention the next day when the Cowboys routed the Colts, 42-7.
There’s not much the Redskins can do to foil the Cowboys on Sunday. The Cowboys have clinched the NFC East title, and attaining the No. 3 seed seems likely. That’s also their floor. Even if they lose, they can’t fall to the No. 4 seed.
If the Cowboys beat the Redskins, they would need both the Cardinals and Seahawks to fare no better than a tie to climb to the No. 2 seed. The Cowboys could also get a first-round bye with a win and a Packers-Lions tie, or even the top seed if a Cardinals loss is added to that mix.
No. 6: Jaguars (3-12) at Texans (8-7)
Now we get into the games involving teams fighting for their playoff lives. The Texans resuscitated their playoff hopes with a 25-13 home win over the Ravens Sunday, but they still need help to reach the postseason.
They shouldn’t have trouble taking care of business against the Jaguars. Arian Foster is set to face the NFL’s 27th-ranked rushing defense. The Texans might even be able to win this one without Foster throwing a touchdown pass.
If the Texans beat the Jaguars as comfortably as they should, a lot of fans at NRG Stadium will be looking at their phones late in the game. They’ll be checking the Browns-Ravens and Chargers-Chiefs scores. In addition to a win, the Texans need Ravens and Chargers losses to get into the playoffs as the No. 6 seed.
Of course, MVP candidate J.J. Watt boosts the excitement factor of any game. He sacks quarterbacks, bats down passes, catches touchdown passes and blocks extra points. However, not even he can affect what happens in Baltimore and Kansas City. The Texans have to win, cross their fingers and hope for the best.
No. 5: Browns (7-8) at Ravens (9-6)
Rex Grossman wouldn’t agree that this is one of the five most exciting NFL games of Week 17. He had a chance to be a part of it when the Browns came calling, but he decided to pass on the offer rather than throw passes for the team.
The Ravens don’t need as much help as the Texans do to make the playoffs. They just have to beat the Browns and hope for a Chargers loss or tie. The Ravens could also get away with tying the Browns if the Chargers lose.
That last-second, 34-33 home loss to the Chargers will come back to haunt the Ravens if they lose and the Chargers win.
Baltimore won’t have to contend with Philip Rivers on Sunday. The Browns will trot out Brian Hoyer, Tyler Thigpen or Connor Shaw under center. Even though those guys don’t add much sizzle to this matchup, this divisional rivalry still has more history than Jaguars-Texans.
No. 4: Bengals (10-4-1) at Steelers (10-5)
NBC apparently believes this is the most riveting game of Week 17. The network flexed the game from the 1 p.m. ET time slot to Sunday night.
This decision was likely made with the assumption that the Bengals would lose to the Broncos on Monday night, and would have to scratch and claw for their playoff lives in Pittsburgh. But the Bengals overcame their primetime stage fright and upended the Broncos, 37-28, to clinch a postseason berth.
The Steelers secured a playoff spot with a 20-12 win over the Chiefs on Sunday. As such, isn’t exactly the play-in game NBC would prefer to have on the final Sunday night of the regular season. But the reward for winning this game and the cost of losing it will be crystal clear by kickoff.
The winner takes the AFC North and at least the No. 3 seed. If it’s the Bengals, there would even be a first-round bye in it for them if the Raiders upset the Broncos. The Steelers can’t get a first-round bye.
The loser of this game in all likelihood would travel to Indianapolis to face Andrew Luck and the Colts on the Lucas Oil Stadium turf. The Colts have a 99 percent chance of being the No. 4 seed. They have little to gain by winning at Tennessee, so they could rest their starters to be fresh for their wild-card game.
Going to Indy would hold some intrigue for the Steelers, who shocked Peyton Manning at Indianapolis in the 2005 playoffs en route to winning Super Bowl XL. They’d have a chance to do the same to Manning’s successor.
The Bengals have already played to one tie this year. If they battle the Steelers and the game ends in a stalemate, they would win the division and get the Steelers again at home in a wild-card game.
No. 3: Chargers (9-6) at Chiefs (8-7)
This is one of just two games in which both teams have playoff hopes, with the loser failing to qualify for a postseason berth.
The Chiefs will likely go home anyway, even if they win. They’d still need Cleveland to win at Baltimore, and Jacksonville to win at Houston. The Chargers are in with a win or even a tie if the Ravens lose or tie.
If they get in, the Chargers are looking like a team that could do some damage in the playoffs. They lost to the Patriots and Broncos at home in consecutive weeks, but they also managed a gritty 10-point comeback win in the final five minutes at Baltimore as well as a comeback from a 28-7 halftime deficit at San Francisco.
All that momentum could disappear, however, if they fall to the Chiefs in Kansas City. The Chargers earned their playoff berth last year at home, even though they needed overtime to beat the Chiefs’ backups in Week 17.
No. 2: Panthers (6-8-1) at Falcons (6-9)
Hold your nose if you want, but the NFL thought enough of this game to move it to the late afternoon.
The winner of this NFC South matchup will host an 11-5 team in a wild-card game despite having only seven wins.
It can be argued whether or not a team with a losing record even deserves to be in the playoffs, but the Falcons are playing well and are coming off a big win in which they eliminated the Saints from contention in the Superdome on Sunday.
Since Thanksgiving Day, the Falcons have lost only to the Steelers and Packers—both playoff-bound teams. Maybe Matt Ryan, Julio Jones and a plus-8 turnover differential is the formula for a dangerous playoff team.
On the other side of the ball, there’s the storyline of Cam Newton possibly leading the Panthers into the playoffs less than three weeks after hurting his back in a car accident. The Panthers have won three in a row, and with a win or a tie on Sunday, they’d go from 3-8-1 to hosting a playoff game—quite a turnaround.
No. 1: Lions (11-4) at Packers (11-4)
Even though NBC chose Bengals-Steelers over this game, the result of this matchup will have more of an impact because it will decide which team gets a first-round bye—while the loser would be forced into a wild-card game on the road. The first-round byes in the AFC will likely be decided by the time the Bengals and Steelers take the field on Sunday night.
Even though both the Lions and Packers are in the playoffs, getting to the Super Bowl will be a lot harder for the loser of this game. The winner clinches the NFC North title, a first-round bye and possibly home field throughout January. The loser will likely have to settle for the No. 6 seed—being forced to win an extra game on the road to get to the Super Bowl.
The Lions beat the Packers, 19-7, at Detroit in Week 3. They have now beaten their division foe in two straight games for the first time since 1999. But the Lions haven’t won at Lambeau Field since 1991, when Mike Tomczak was the Packers’ quarterback. When a streak that long could come to an end, it will surely draw viewers.
The Packers are 7-0 at home this season. If the Lions manage to win and end up hosting a playoff game in two weeks, it would result in the most excitement the team’s fan base will have experienced since Barry Sanders was striking fear into his opponents just before the turn of the century.