Handicapping NBA games can sometimes be very challenging, especially when trying to determine how an injured star player may or may not impact a team’s ability to win games.
And while injuries are a part of any sports betting, it can be argued that that the sport that is most affected most by an injury to a star player — is the NBA.
Whether it’s a minor injury or a season-ending injury, when an NBA star player goes down, it can end a team’s chances at winning and a NBA handicapper’s ability to pad their wallet.
The reason.
Unlike other sports, the absence of an NBA superstar is felt much more. With just five players on a side, and the fact that players play both offense and defense, replacing a player in the NBA is a much more difficult task.
For example, if the Clippers were to lose a star player the likes of Blake Griffin, they would surely struggle, even if a little until his return. That’s because its hard for an NBA team to adjust its game plan, which usually revolves around its star player.
Handicappers have to be aware of this and be able to identify certain factors that will enable them to determine how big of an impact the loss of a particular player will be on a NBA team’s ability to win games.
First, NBA bettors need to determine if an injured star player was playing up to expectations before he was sidelined.
Often times, the public puts too much emphasis on a star player’s reputation, even if he is under-performing, which in turn will cause odd makers to react by over or undervaluing their team in the NBA betting odds.
That’s why it’s important for handicappers to not only track injuries, but also performance of superstar players, as players who are injured should equal the affect the same way a struggling player does.
Advice From Legend Jon Price – Worlds Most Successful NBA Bettor
Jon Price has been featured in Forbes, Eye on Gaming, Gambling911, and many other publications for his ability to beat out bookmakers. He always advises basketball bettors who want to go at it on their own to look at the stats and think outside the box on why a team may win or lose that particular day. In College basketball he has already started off 9-1 his best start to NCAA hoops ever. The reason he equates is refining and understanding the statistics and using what works well for NBA betting and translating it to college.
Next, handicappers wanting to back team’s with an injured star player, need to take into account that team’s upcoming schedule.
If the team is playing opponents that are well below their caliber, than the impact of an injury may not matter as much. However, if that same team has a stretch of tough opponents coming up, its odds of winning without their star player will probably diminish. Combine that with a recent letdown in motivation or momentum, and it’s critical that NBA bettors not underestimate the emotion in an NBA game when factoring in an injured star player.
Finally, in order to really understand the impact of an injury to a team that has lost its star player, handicappers need to look at its depth.
If a team has good depth, than the injury to its star player would not matter all that much. But if a team is thin in certain positions, then it might find itself as the unfamiliar underdog.
And while a team with ample depth can often rally around each other to pick up the slack, especially if it’s just for a single game, handicappers should not get fooled by a team that has won a single game without its superstar, but should watch, wait and see of it can sustain that beyond two or three games.
If NBA bettors do a little digging, they might even discover that a particular team has handled past injury situations better than most.