The winter meetings—MLB’s signature offseason event—occur in the midst of the holiday shopping season. The event features many “buyers” attempting to push other competitors aside in hopes of landing a hot commodity to upgrade their respective teams for the 2015 season and beyond.
But if the past results are indicative of what may be in store in the future, the hype leading up to the event tends to be more entertaining than what actually takes place.
Predicting players’ future landing spots can be quite tricky. Analysts will often have more success relying on gut feelings and what makes sense—rather than what may be circulating in the rumor mill.
We’ve attempted to take some bold stabs at what may happen at the Hilton San Diego Bayfront from Monday through Thursday when Major League Baseball’s winter meetings take place.
10. The veterans committee will not vote any of the 10 finalists into the Hall of Fame
There are a number of candidates who should already have plaques in their honor, but still have yet to receive their accolades.
Gil Hodges currently presents the strongest case to get voted in. The former Brooklyn/Los Angeles Dodgers first baseman and manager of the 1969 World Champion New York Mets has received the most Hall of Fame votes of anyone who has not been elected into the elite club.
Tony Oliva, Jim Kaat, Dick Allen and Minnie Minoso make strong cases as well. Yet, each has been passed over by voters several times over.
It’s hard to imagine voters acting less picky and allowing at least one of the ten candidates on the ballot to receive the requisite 12 votes needed for enshrinement.
9. Troy Tulowitzki will remain in Colorado–for now
When healthy, Tulowitzki possesses the power and defensive ability that makes him one of the best players at his position. He’s put together four seasons with a .300 batting average or better, six with at least 20 home runs and he owns a pair of Gold Glove awards.
He’s an MLB-caliber player when healthy. But the knock on him is that he’s played in slightly more than half (264) of the team’s games over the last three years.
Despite a pension for injury, there aren’t too many shortstop-needy teams that would pass on the opportunity to have him in their lineup. The Mets have had dreams of filling their weakness at shortstop with big-name talent. But it will likely amount to nothing more than a dream.
Even though the relationship between Tulowitzki and the Rockies’ brass has soured, it makes more sense for the two parties to suck it up until closer to the July trade deadline—when some desperate team may come calling in dire need of his services.
8. Mets will finally make an upgrade at shortstop with the acquisition of Alexei Ramirez
GM Sandy Alderson has the luxury of possessing some talented young arms to potentially deal. He’s also up against the misfortune of attempting to help run a financially-strained organization just trying to survive and keep its head above water.
A dilemma mounts: Should Alderson give up one of his talented, yet unproven arms in exchange for some help at the Mets’ weakest spot in the lineup?
If he does decide to pull the trigger, it’ll likely be for Ramirez–with one year remaining on his contract, coming off his best offensive season (15 HRs, 74 RBI, and a .273 average).
The White Sox are in need of a starting pitcher, making this potential swap one that could satisfy both parties.
7. Justin Upton will be traded to the Orioles
With the Braves signing Nick Markakis on Wednesday, the younger Upton’s days in a Braves uniform are now likely numbered. There are a handful of teams that could use a right-handed hitting corner outfielder—one of which being Markakis’ former club.
The Red Sox and Blue Jays are continuing to upgrade their respective offenses. But the Orioles, on the other hand, have regressed—resulting in a steep decline from what was a potent lineup in 2014.
Upton can give Baltimore a power bat to fill a void and help stop the bleeding from Nelson Cruz’s departure. He can also help strengthen what is already a very solid defensive outfield.
A potential deal could very well hinge on whether or not the O’s want to part ways with top pitching prospect Dylan Bundy.
6. Melky Cabrera will return to San Francisco
This particular move seemed improbable during the latter part of the 2012 season and beyond.
Cabrera, who was hitting .346 through 113 games that year, was suspended for the remainder of the season due to his involvement with Biogenesis. The Giants went on to win the World Series without him, and Cabrera was soon shipped off to Toronto.
Pablo Sandoval has signed with the Red Sox and Michael Morse is weighing his options elsewhere. San Francisco is seeking a reliable power bat to replace them (preferably one that can play a decent left field). That puts Cabrera, now 30 years old, right back in the mix following a solid comeback season in which he maintained a .301 average with 16 home runs and 73 RBI in 139 games.
Provided the Giants can outbid other suitors (such as the San Diego Padres) and are willing to offer a solid multi-year deal, this once-believed broken relationship could certainly be mended.
A great tradition of #SFGiants is welcoming back ex-Giants – even those who left with bad feelings. Melky Cabrera would test the tradition
— Marcos Breton (@MarcosBreton) December 4, 2014
5. James Shields will take his talents to South Beach
“Big Game” James has a nice ring to it, even if it may no longer apply.
Although James Shields made a sound impact on the Kansas City Royals’ rotation in his two seasons there, he wasn’t exactly reliable during last year’s World Series run—allowing 36 hits and 17 runs over 25 innings.
But that doesn’t mean he isn’t one of several pitchers set to receive offers near or in excess of $100 million. The once cash-strapped, now pocket-filled Miami Marlins are going to reel in Shields to South Beach, where he can once again provide a veteran presence to a starting staff headed by 22-year-old Jose Fernandez.
4. Mariners will land Matt Kemp
If the Dodgers were a softball team, they wouldn’t have an outfield problem and could find a place in the starting lineup for Matt Kemp.
But, alas, only three outfielders are allowed on the field at once in the game of baseball. That makes Kemp expendable. He has voiced his displeasure in the past about not being a regular in the lineup and is now a movable piece that other teams would gladly welcome.
The two-time All-Star finished with 25 homers and 89 RBI last season. And even though Seattle recently signed Nelson Cruz to a 4-year deal, adding another power bat in the outfield would make the Mariners a true contender in the American League.
3. Jon Lester will reunite with Theo Epstein and sign with the Cubs
Lester’s stay in Oakland appears as if it will be a brief one.
After being sent to the Bay Area from Boston, Billy Beane’s rental seemed as if it could be the last key piece needed for the A’s to make a World Series run, based on Lester’s past history as a dominant starter. But it proved to be a curse, and the team struggled immensely in September.
The A’s got knocked out of the postseason in the Wild Card round, and the team must now move forward without former clubhouse leader Yoenis Cespedes. Many assumed Lester would return to the only other club he’s ever played for. But they’re not alone. The Giants, Cubs and (most recently) the Dodgers have made a bid for his services as well.
In the end, new skipper Joe Maddon will likely get his way and the Cubs front office will do all it can to land this No. 1 starter. Lester certainly has strong reason to return to Boston. But playing under a familiar face in team president Theo Epstein and pitching in a ballpark that is far more kind to left-handed pitchers (as opposed to Fenway) could be more appealing to him.
2. Cole Hamels will ship up to Boston
The domino effect from Jon Lester’s decision will result in a piece of the Phillies’ old guard making his way up north.
Trade rumors surrounding Hamels have been swirling since last season’s All-Star break, and it looks like he may ship up to Boston (assuming Lester doesn’t return home).
Hamels is only 30 years old, has plenty of big-game experience and his arm looks to have a few more quality years remaining in it. He went 9-9 with a 2.46 ERA last season, despite often failing to receive run support from his team.
Hamels will have the opportunity to leave behind a Phillies team that lacks big-name talent and has been marred by bad contracts. He can escape the salary cap fiasco and sign with a real contender in the Red Sox.
1. Max Scherzer will receive a halo placed above his head
Rewind to this past offseason, and remember what took place between Scherzer and the Tigers’ brass in March. The 2013 AL Cy Young Award winner—with one year remaining on his contract—reportedly didn’t bite on a six-year, $144 million contract extension.
It didn’t take a genius to read the tea leaves and figure out that this Scott Boras client likely wasn’t going to be calling Detroit home for 2015 and beyond. By going 18-5 with 252 strikeouts and a 3.15 ERA in a dominant 2014 campaign, Scherzer has raised his stock enough to command an even heftier payout in the near future. The White Sox and Yankees are just two of the many teams that have expressed interest in his services.
But the Angels present an ideal scenario. They have the finances to acquire Scherzer. And they already have plenty of talent in place to give him the best chance to win a World Series sooner rather than later.
If this prediction comes to pass, the Angels would likely become the early favorites to win the American League pennant in 2015.