If the NFL playoff picture developed at the same rate as a Polaroid photo, it would still look quite dark right now. But by the time this weekend’s slate of games is in the books, some imagery would likely begin to come into focus.
Two of the ten most important games remaining on the 2014 regular-season schedule will be played this Sunday. We’ll be treated to entertaining matchups between division leaders. One of the games looks to feature plenty of offensive fireworks. And the other—with two of the league’s best defenses squaring off—should be quite the opposite.
Three more will take place in Week 17, as that particular slate features all divisional games. It’s one of the few good ideas implemented since Roger Goodell took over as commissioner.
Let’s take a look at ten games that will drastically affect how the NFL playoff picture plays out.
(7-2) Patriots at (6-3) Colts—Week 11
Showdowns between these two teams are as much a part of late Autumn as raking leaves, but much more entertaining.
Nothing can keep these former AFC East rivals apart—not even the 2002 realignment.
The Patriots and Colts have met every year since 2003. Last year was the first time since then that they didn’t meet in the regular season, but they reunited in the playoffs with the Patriots winning 43-22 at Gillette Stadium. The Colts haven’t beaten the Patriots since 2009, when the Patriots infamously tried to clinch a victory by going for it on 4th-and-2 from their own 28.
Five years and one day later, the Patriots and Colts will meet at Lucas Oil Stadium for the first time since then. Both fresh off their bye, these AFC East powers will square off on the Sunday Night Football stage.
Andrew Luck will be looking for his first victory over the Patriots in his third try, and it would give the Colts a shot at home-field advantage throughout the AFC playoffs. They’d have the tiebreaker over the Patriots, but a three-way tie with the Patriots and Broncos would be a bit more complicated with the Colts’ loss at Denver in Week 1.
The Patriots own the tiebreaker over the Broncos. A win over the Colts would put them in a good position to put away their suitcases for most of January—and possibly even pack them for a trip to Arizona in February.
(7-2) Lions at (8-1) Cardinals—Week 11
The Lions and Cardinals lead their respective divisions, but both teams have opponents breathing down their necks.
Detroit has a one-game lead on (6-3) Green Bay in the NFC North and could fall into a tie for first place with a loss, although the team beat Green Bay at home in Week 3. The Cardinals have a two-game lead on the (6-3) Seahawks and a three-game lead on the (5-4) 49ers. But the Seahawks have won three straight and the 49ers last Sunday became the first team to win at New Orleans since 2012.
The loss of Carson Palmer for the season seems that much more ominous for the Cardinals with the Seahawks and 49ers building so much momentum, but Drew Stanton led them to a comeback win over the St. Louis Rams Sunday and he’s 2-1 as the Cardinals’ starter with the only loss coming at Denver. A win Sunday will provide evidence that the Cardinals can keep the Seahawks and 49ers at arm’s length without Palmer.
Whichever team wins this game can take a big step toward home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. The Cardinals would retain the best record in the NFC with a win. If the Lions win, they’d have the tiebreaker over the Cards and a better conference record than the NFC East-leading Eagles.
(8-1) Cardinals at (6-3) Seahawks—Week 12
Arizona won at Seattle last season, and if the Cards can clam up the 12th Man in Week 12 it would widen the distance between the teams in the NFC West race. It’s a comfort zone they might need if they struggle without Palmer in the coming weeks. The Cardinals then would have a chance to capture the tiebreaker over the Seahawks when they host them in Week 16.
The Seahawks have won three straight and can make a run at the Cardinals if Stanton falters. They seem to be regaining their Super Bowl swagger after a 38-17 home win over the New York Giants on Sunday.
The Cardinals will at least take a one-game NFC West lead into CenturyLink Field. But even if it’s a two-game lead, they’ll be feeling the heat if the Seahawks win.
(6-3) Seahawks at (5-4) 49ers—Week 13
The 49ers resuscitated their season Sunday with a 27-24 overtime win at New Orleans. It was the Saints’ first home loss since Week 17 of the 2012 season.
If the 49ers can take advantage of a soft spot in their schedule—which includes Sunday’s game at the (3-6) Giants and next week’s home game against the (3-6) Redskins—they’ll have a 7-4 record when they welcome the defending champions to their home on Thanksgiving night.
The Seahawks, meanwhile, are at (6-3) Kansas City on Sunday and host (8-1) Arizona in Week 12. It will be a challenge for them to maintain their one-game lead on the 49ers. Second place in the NFC West could be at stake here, and that might be the only wild-card berth available in this division.
It would behoove the 49ers to win this game at home, because they’ve never beaten a Russell Wilson-led team in Seattle.
(6-4) Steelers at (5-3-1) Bengals—Week 14
The AFC North is currently the NFL’s Group of Death. Every team in the division is at least two games over .500, and there figures to be at least one wild card berth emerging from this quartet.
This is the first of four games remaining between AFC North teams, and the Steelers and Bengals face each other in two of them.
The Bengals’ home was pillaged by the Browns in the Battle of Ohio in Week 10, and now they stagger into three consecutive road games. The first of those is against the Saints, who are 11-1 at the Superdome since the beginning of last season. Then it gets a bit easier when they go to Houston, then Tampa Bay.
The Bengals might as well leave the buses running when they play the Steelers, because the next week they hit the road again when the Battle of Ohio moves to the Dawg Pound. Then they host the Broncos and go to Pittsburgh in Week 17.
Cincinnati has beaten Pittsburgh at home only three times since the turn of the century. They’re going to have to make it four. This game, as well as the one the week before at Tampa Bay, is the closest thing to a breather remaining on the Bengals’ schedule. They have to take advantage of it and turn at least a couple of those rough spots into wins. If not, their playoff hopes will be the Group of Death’s first victim.
(7-3) Cowboys at (7-2) Eagles—Week 15
The Eagles were supposed to run away with the NFC East. They’re running away from the Giants and Redskins, but so are the Cowboys.
In Week 13, Dallas will host Philadelphia on Thanksgiving for the first time in 25 years, but the Week 15 game is more likely to decide the division since there’s a such a talent gap between those teams and the Giants and Redskins, both 3-6.
Both the Eagles and Cowboys have lost to the 49ers and Cardinals and have a resume-building road win. The Eagles won at Indianapolis in Week 2 and the Cowboys won at Seattle in Week 6. The Cowboys’ home loss to Washington in Week 7 is the only ugly loss between the teams.
The second-place finisher in the NFC East isn’t guaranteed a playoff spot. The Packers and Seahawks, both second in their divisions, are 6-3. The winner of this prime time (for now) clash could have a shot at a first-round bye in the playoffs. The loser might not make the postseason at all.
(6-3) Chiefs at (6-4) Steelers—Week 16
The Chiefs have the best record among non-division leaders in the AFC. They went 4-0 against the AFC East, which gives them the tiebreaker over the Dolphins and Bills.
The Chiefs will likely get into a tiebreaker tussle with a team from the AFC North, which could send two wild cards to the playoffs. The Steelers are the only AFC North team the Chiefs play, so this is their only chance to bag a tiebreaker against a team in that division.
Conversely, a win over the Chiefs could come in handy for the Steelers as the playoff picture comes into focus. It would also beef up Pittsburgh’s conference record, which is currently 5-3. That’s the first tiebreaker to decide the wild card race between teams from different divisions that haven’t played each other.
(6-3) Browns at (6-4) Ravens—Week 17
Maybe Ravens coach John Harbaugh didn’t want the entire world to hear him take a shot at the Steelers in the locker room after the Ravens defeated the Titans Sunday.
But Harbaugh was on to something. Unlike the Steelers, the Ravens can handle the lowly task of beating underdogs. The Steelers have resume-building wins over the Colts and Ravens, but losing to the Buccaneers and Jets is like scribbling all over that resume with a crayon.
While Harbaugh was at it, he might as well have had a few chuckles about the Bengals’ remaining schedule, which includes three straight road games, a trip to the Dawg Pound and a visit from Peyton Manning.
“See You in September” might as well be the official song for the Bengals’ 2014 season, because since starting 3-0, they’ve gone 2-3-1.
The Browns have a little smudge on their resume, too. They lost at Jacksonville in Week 7. But they spruced up that resume with their Week 10 domination at Cincinnati and currently reside alone in first place.
Of the two AFC North matchups in Week 17, this one is more likely to decide the division because the Browns and Ravens have been the more consistent teams. The Ravens won at Cleveland in Week 3, so the tiebreaker is theirs if they take care of business at home.
(8-1) Cardinals at (5-4) 49ers—Week 17
The only head-to-head game so far among the NFC West’s trio of contenders is the Cardinals’ Week 3 home victory over the 49ers. That makes for a rather primordial picture in the division.
The division will shape itself as Seattle plays all of its games against the Cardinals and 49ers during a five-week stretch that ends in Week 16.
This will be the more playoff-relevant of the two NFC West pairings on the season’s final weekend. The Rams aren’t likely to contend, and the Seahawks should make short work of them in Seattle. By then, it might not be enough for the Seahawks. Their next six games—including four on the road—are all against teams with winning records.
San Francisco, on the other hand, has three games remaining against teams with losing records, including winless Oakland. After Sunday’s trip to New Jersey to face the Giants, the 49ers don’t leave the West Coast in the final six weeks of the season.
The 49ers and Seahawks both can make a run at the Palmer-less Cardinals, but the schedule favors the Niners. The Cardinals have that Week 3 win in hand, but a 49ers win at Levi’s Stadium would make “tiebreakers” a popular Google search in Arizona and San Francisco.
(7-2) Lions at (6-3) Packers—Week 17
It’s been quite awhile since the Lions last won at Green Bay.
Detroit is trying to win its first division title since 1993. To do that, the team just might have to win at Lambeau Field for the first time since 1991.
Neither the Lions nor the Packers show signs of letting up in this two-team NFC North race.
The Lions’ four-game winning streak will be put to the test Sunday at Arizona. Then the red-hot Patriots await at Gillette Stadium in Week 12.
Four days after playing the Patriots, the Lions are home for Thanksgiving against the Bears. The Buccaneers and Vikings follow on a three-game homestand against teams with a combined 8-22 record. Then the Lions finish the season at Chicago and at Green Bay.
The Packers have a tough matchup on Sunday, at home against the Eagles. They also play the Patriots but get them at Lambeau in Week 13. The only other team with a winning record on Green Bay’s schedule before Week 17 is Buffalo, and they may not have one by the time the two are scheduled to meet in mid-December.
The Lions defeated the Packers 19-7 at Detroit in Week 3. So technically, they could fall a game behind the Packers and still win the division with a Week 17 victory in Lambeau, if it came down to that. But that’s a tall order, being that it’s a feat they haven’t managed to pull off in nearly a quarter-century.