This probably feels like a talk-radio topic, yet it does seem worth discussing. While no one can say anything just yet in a factual sense, waiting to use hindsight on the matter of “football programs in decline” is something Americans very much enjoy.
Will they be able to use that hindsight in the coming weeks? We’ll soon find out.
Here is what we know for sure: Chip Kelly is no longer the head coach of the Oregon Ducks. He is manning the ship for the Philadelphia Eagles, which is an entirely different topic altogether. The days of relying upon the brilliance that was Marcus Mariota are over. Today, there’s no reason to give Oregon the benefit of the doubt built by Kelly, since all major remnants of his tenure are gone, baby… gone.
To be fair, this is only one bad start to one bad season. It is easy to begin to question the direction of the program after the Ducks were destroyed by Utah as if the latter was Andre The Giant and they were the Brooklyn Brawler. A rational discussion can still be had, however.
*
What’s left? What about Oregon going forward makes you think remotely about the Oregon of previous seasons? This is important question — a feeling will build among college football prognosticators that the era of Oregon being elite is coming to a close.
Mark Helfrich is still there. He has been around the program since 2009 and was an excellent offensive coordinator for Kelly before being promoted from within. As the man in charge of Oregon football, he led the program to the national title game in the College Football Playoff era. By beating Florida State in the Rose Bowl — which doubled as the playoff semifinal round — Helfrich achieved more in the 2014 season than Kelly did in 2010. At the same time, it could be argued that he won big in 2014 with another — likely better — coach’s players, chiefly Mariota. Regardless, he didn’t fall flat on his face.
I guess that shouldn’t make us question what’s left at Oregon; the better question might be, “What is left at Oregon that’s still any good?” We will get back to Helfrich in a minute.
What’s still good at UO? Money is good. Hell, money is the best. You like it, I like it, Nike likes it, and Oregon benefits from Nike’s ability to shove bundles of it in the program’s direction. That is something which won’t go away.
Chip Kelly, Mark Helfrich, or even Bill Murray if need be, Nike is going to continue to help Oregon the only way it can, by giving the Ducks loot. That helps keep their facilities at a level matched by few, while making it easier for coaches to recruit some of the better players in the country. However, the simple flow of money into a program doesn’t automatically equal sustained success. Consider what’s going on at the University of Texas right now.
Still, it is hard not to see all that cash and not think happy thoughts. This is a positive, a very big one at that, one that could help the program rebound at any point if things turn sour.
Now back to Helfrich. Is he a good coach? He did well when he had Mariota playing quarterback for him. I am not sure that’s the best way to gauge his abilities as a coach, as I am sure many other good college coaches would also have had similar success if they had a Heisman-caliber player behind center.
However, we shouldn’t use the fact that he excelled with another coach’s players against him. What was he supposed to do? Fail? Doing well in his first few seasons — albeit with a roster mostly built by another guy — doesn’t make this current season’s previous woes a sign of his undoing. It could… but then again, we can attach meaning to anything we ever see and call it “a sign of things to come,” if it helps us fit whatever narrative we are trying to sell.
——–
Going back to 2013, the year in which Helfrich took over Kelly’s gig, Oregon has had solid recruiting classes. 247Sports had Oregon’s 2013 class ranked as 19th-best in the land (fourth in the Pac-12), 2014’s class 21st (again, fourth in the Pac-12), and 2015’s class 16th (third in the Pac-12). However, the 2016 class is shaping up to be its worst, with a current national ranking of 24 (fourth in the Pac-12).
Personally, I do not put a ton of stock into the rankings of high school players, but it can be used as a gauge to see how kids coming out of high school view programs — the talent of those kids can make or break any program.
Not that the Chip Kelly era saw Oregon scooping up all the five-star guys in the world or anything, but it has to be a bit concerning to see Helfrich’s classes going in the wrong direction. Ignore the national rankings for a minute; Oregon is continuing (according to people in the high school rankings field) to hover around having the fourth-best recruiting class in its own conference.
That could very well be a testament to how strong a league the Pac-12 is. Make no bones about it; the Pac-12 is the second-best conference in the nation. However, if we are discussing whether Oregon is still a top five-to-10 program in the country, it would make sense to say no if the Ducks aren’t one of the three best recruiting programs in their own conference.
Again, recruiting isn’t the end-all for this discussion. It doesn’t mean — as a fact — that Oregon is toast. If it’s a sign that the Ducks are in deep trouble, we could certainly cite recruiting while coupling it with the absence of Kelly’s players and Oregon’s atrocious start to this season.
I’m not willing to completely sign off on Oregon being done as a program merely because of a (really) bad start to the season. It wouldn’t seem logical to do so. Simply consider this column as a harbinger of things to come — because as the season progresses, and if Oregon’s woes continue to pile on top of each other, there are going to be more like this one… except being way more factual and pronounced about the Ducks’ possible demise.
Luckily for Oregon, regardless of how good or bad Helfrich ends up being, Nike money should help the Ducks get back on track at one point or another. Money will always help keep programs in the mix.
Deficient recruiting and coaching? No.