Now that the Big 12’s head honchos have smartly rebuffed commissioner Bob Bowlsby’s entreaties to re-institute a conference championship game, they can move on to what should be their next order of playoff business.
The question of whether the lack of a championship game constitutes an advantage or disadvantage in positioning for the College Football Playoff has dominated the conversation during this latest kerfuffle. After being snubbed by the selection committee in the tournament’s first season, that shouldn’t come as a surprise.
However, that creates a no-win situation for the league. If the answer to that question is that it does give the conference an advantage, it comes off as though the Big 12 is trying to game the system. If it’s a disadvantage, it means the Big 12 should start the playoff chase from behind.
Bowlsby actually fell into that trap on Tuesday when discussing the conference’s decision:
“We may find ourselves in better shape than some other conferences as a result of our model rather than in spite of our model.”
So, if framing the decision to hold a championship game as a risk-reward proposition is a problem for the league, is there a solution?
To borrow a line from Don Draper, if you don’t like what’s being said, change the conversation.
Ironically, the Big 12 needs to double down on the idea behind “One True Champion.” While the catchphrase backfired something fierce on the league this season, the Big 12’s impulse to promote its round-robin schedule was actually dead-on.
The point of a conference championship game is to crown a winner when — unlike the Big 12 — all the teams in the league can’t play each other in the regular season. With a round-robin schedule, a championship game is extraneous: The conference champ is already guaranteed to have played the team deemed second-best in the league, as is the case in the rest of the Power 5.
Furthermore, the division format necessitates unbalanced scheduling, and we’ve seen how that plays out*:
- Since the SEC expanded to 14 teams in 2012, just one of the conference’s six division winners played a cross-divisional opponent with a winning conference record (SEC West champ Auburn versus Georgia in 2013);
- In the Big Ten’s first season with 14 teams in 2014, West winner Wisconsin caught Maryland (4-4 in conference play) and Rutgers (3-5) from the Big Ten East;
- ACC division winners have played a total of two cross-divisional opponents with winning conference records since expanding to 14 teams in 2013 (Georgia Tech versus Clemson in 2014 and Florida State versus Miami in 2013).
*Also, note that there have been no rematches from the regular season in conference championship games in the leagues that have expanded to 14 teams. That’s to be expected as in-conference scheduling gets thinned out.
In the Big 12, no team gets the benefit of missing out on some of the conference’s best teams in the regular season. In that respect, the path of its champion is every bit as challenging as that of a conference championship game winner, if not more so. (Or, if you want to “go negative:” The other conferences need a title game to put their champs on an even field with the Big 12’s best.)
Ultimately, the Big 12 can make a strong case that it has the best regular season of the Power 5 conferences. Going forward, Bowlsby and the Big 12’s members need to drive that message home.