One thing you can always find difficult in Philadelphia is dishing out tough love. We may be the City of Brotherly Love, but there’s no love at all when you don’t have unbridled optimism for every sports team at the beginning of every season. That goes for every team in this city — even the Sixers, who only won ten games last year.
That statement is especially true when it comes to the Philadelphia Eagles. You are not allowed to speak negatively about the Eagles ever or be labeled a heretic and be burned at the stake in the middle of South Philadelphia. That’s what is going to make this an interesting column. I’ve seen all of the tweets, the reports, the massively flaming hot takes, and some have made sense. There are others that make absolutely zero sense to me.
The editors and staff at Total Sports Live know me to be “brutally honest” about the teams in this town regardless of my homerisms. (I guess that’s why they love it when I post these things because of the massive amounts of traffic.) They may sound hot take-ish, but if you take some time and think, you may see that I’m right. When you do that, this bit of tough love will prepare you for a very different Philadelphia Eagles season. If you’re ready, let’s dive in.
This is the first year of a massive rebuild and transitional period.
There have been two major rebuilds within the Philadelphia Eagles organiztion since 1999.
The more recent rebuild came when Chip Kelly became head coach in 2013 after the final year of the Andy Reid era. That rebuild was moderately painless in the beginning because there was still a good amount of talent on the roster with Lesean McCoy, Desean Jackson, and Jeremy Maclin (who got hurt during his first year of the Chip Kelly regime). That rebuild (or “sidestep”, we’ll say) yielded two 10-6 seasons and pretty decent levels of optimism. We all remembered what happened in year three.
The first year of this rebuild reminds me a lot more of the first rebuild when unknown assistant coach Andy Reid took over a team that had gone 3-13 the previous year. A rookie quarterback from Syracuse University was drafted amidst a sea of booing. There was very little talent on the offensive side of the ball aside from a 24-year old Duce Staley, who ran for 1,200 yards that year. Most of the talent was on defense, where you’d find a young Brian Dawkins, Jeremiah Trotter, and Mike Mamula. (I know. I know. Mike Mamula is about as synonymous as mentioning Ryan Leaf in San Diego, but Mamula did have 8.5 sacks in the 1999 season.)
The 2016-2017 Philadelphia Eagles season seems eerily familiar. The head coach, Doug Pederson, is a little bit of a no name. A rookie quarterback was drafted with the weight of the franchise’s future on his shoulders (North Dakota State’s Carson Wentz). There’s barely any talent on the offensive side of the ball except for tight end Zach Ertz and wide receiver Jordan Matthews. All of the talent is on the defensive side (i.e. Fletcher Cox, Mychal Kendricks, Malcolm Jenkins).
The 1999-2000 Philadelphia Eagles went 5-11 but showed promise. That’s what this first year is about: promise and hope for the coming years.
The Philadelphia Eagles defense will be top-ten in DVOA.
There are plenty of bright spots on the Philadelphia Eagles roster. They’re all on defense, though.
Defensive tackle Fletcher Cox, linebackers Connor Barwin and Mychal Kendricks, and safeties Malcolm Jenkins and Rodney McLeod are just some of the blue chippers on this defense. Brandon Graham is back as is Vinny Curry, and my personal favorite Bennie Logan is still in the mix. This defense is pretty stacked.
Defensive coordinator Jim Schwartz had a resurgence in 2014 with the Buffalo Bills and his defense was 9th in DVOA that year. The players he has on this year’s Eagles squad are almost as good, if not better than that collection he had in Buffalo. There’s something to be said about going from one coach to another and the level of intelligence differs. The Eagles will see a VAST difference in the defense ran by Schwartz as opposed to former defensive coordinator Billy Davis. That’s not just a reference to the return to the 4-3 with some Wide-9 sprinkled in.
You’ve already seen some of the wrinkles this preseason as the Birds have eight turnovers in just two games. (Granted, it’s only the preseason, but there is reason to be hopeful on this side of the ball as opposed to the other side where there’s a little hope, but the light is flickering quite steadily.)
Zach Ertz and Jordan Matthews will be 1-2 for the Eagles in receptions, yards, and touchdowns. No one else will come close to either of them in any category.
The drop off in talent between Ertz/Matthews and the rest of the receiver core is downright abysmal. There is virtually no other way to put this. Last year’s first round pick Nelson Agholor has looked decent in the preseason, but is dangerously approaching “bust” category. Dorial Green-Beckham was acquired last week, but he hasn’t been in a game yet, so who knows what he provides. The editor of this website, Jovan Alford, has been on the record in stating that Josh Huff should be the fourth WR or perhaps in the Canadian League as a slotback for the Saskatchewan Roughriders. (A statement that had me saying to myself, “Damn, dude. That’s cold.”)
That statement is painfully true, however. Zach Ertz is the best receiver on the roster due to his ability to create mismatches with linebackers and safeties. Matthews is 1b simply because he’s the best “wide receiver” we have. Assuming whoever the Eagles quarterback is, remains upright during pass plays, the ball is going to one of those two guys fairly routinely.
Oh, that leads me to this:
The Philadelphia Eagles offensive line will yield a lot of sacks … and I mean A LOT of sacks.
The quarterbacks who have been sacked the most times in a single season in the NFL are:
David Carr – 76 in 2002
Randall Cunningham – 72 in 1986
David Carr (again) – 68 in 2005
Jon Kitna – 63 in 2006
Steve Beurlein and Ken O’Brien – both 62 in 2000 and 1985, respectively.
The only saving grace is that an actual Philadelphia Eagles quarterback won’t make this list since there’s no chance Sam Bradford comes back after sack number 30 or so. Left tackle Jason Peters is 34 and right tackle Lane Johnson could miss a significant amount of games if his B-test comes back positive for a violation of the league’s drug policy. Guard Brandon Brooks is already hurt, and Isaac Seumalo is a rookie. At least we have one of the best centers in the league in Jason Kelce, right? If there is a bet in Las Vegas for “how many games will Sam Bradford start”, take the under for whatever that number is. You’ll win money. Trust me.
Rookie Carson Wentz will make his first NFL start no sooner than Monday, November 28th.
The Philadelphia Eagles will ride Sam Bradford until his wheels fall off — which could happen sooner than later given Sammy’s injury history. Once that happens, the reigns go to Chase Daniel, who signed a three-year, $21 million deal this offseason to be a backup/mentor/clipboard holder which he did so well for Andy Reid and Doug Pederson in Kansas City.
When Daniel has had enough of being thrown to the wolves, that’s when Wentz makes his first start. It will be that late because if the stars align perfectly, the Eagles could be in the middle of a playoff push, and a competent quarterback could mean the difference. The other reason is that the Eagles would be so far OUT of the race that it’s time to nuke the season for morbid and see what you have in the kid. Don’t do it against the Seattle Seahawks in Seattle, though. Wait a week for a nice showdown against Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers. That’d be fun, and you’d probably sell out the stadium for that.
The over/under for win totals for the 2016-2017 Philadelphia Eagles is seven. Bet the under or push.
Seven wins for this season seems perfect when you consider the Dallas Cowboys, New York Giants, and Washington Professional Football team are all more balanced on both sides of the ball than the Eagles. That’s just in the division. When I give the Eagles schedule a good look, there are only six games where I can easily (or at least semi-easily) say there’s a win:
9/11 vs. Cleveland – They won’t lose the home opener.
9/19 at Chicago – There’s something about Chicago’s defense I don’t trust — their ability to get stops.
11/13 vs. Atlanta – From here until the end of time, Atlanta is fraudulent. Ask my brother.
12/11 vs. Washington – The honeymoon for the Washington Professional Football team could be fading by this point.
12/22 vs. New York Giants – The Eagles love to play “spoiler” to a Giants playoff or division push. It happens every year.
1/1 vs. Dallas – By this point, Carson Wentz could be starting and knowing the offense really well. This will be the Wentz 300 yard, 3 TD game.
The only other game where there’s even a remote possibility of winning is perhaps the away game against the Detroit Lions on October 9 – which is “Schwartz Bowl II”. A 7-9 or 6-10 season this year is a gift. Take it. This leads me to my last statement about the 2016-2017 season.
The Philadelphia Eagles WILL NOT make the playoffs this year.
Put a car note on that bet.
Put a house note on that.
The only scenario where the Eagles make the playoffs is if the team jets of the Giants, Cowboys, and Washington all crash in the same season. If that happens, sure, the Eagles will make it to the postseason by default — provided that Commissioner Roger Goodell hasn’t cancelled the season entirely.
It’s hard for me to go into a Philadelphia Eagles season with so little optimism, and I’ll probably be labeled very negatively on social media and among my social circles. I’ll bear that cross, however. Sometimes, hard truth is required to make folks see the bigger picture. It won’t be easy to hear, boys and girls. This season is GOING to suck. It won’t horrifically suck and not in the most terrible way possible, but it won’t be fun more than it will be.
This season is about taking that next first step. Lower your expectations a bit and control your feelings. This ride is going to be rough for a year, but it will smooth itself out.