Editor’s Note: Crossover Chronicles is happy to welcome two special guests to a roundtable on the Eastern Conference finals between the Cleveland Cavaliers and Atlanta Hawks. Joining us are special guests Raphielle Johnson and Aaron Torres, whose analysis will lead off our examination of this series. The other five panelists for this roundtable are Crossover Chronicles writers.
*
ROUNDTABLE SPECIAL GUESTS
RAPHIELLE JOHNSON, COLLEGE BASKETBALL WRITER FOR NBC SPORTS / COLLEGE BASKETBALL TALK – @raphiellej
Atlanta key player: DeMarre Carroll
I can certainly see Kyle Korver in this spot, given his shooting ability and how it helps Atlanta from a spacing standpoint. But Carroll’s ability on both ends of the floor is critical to the Hawks’ chances, and his progression as a two-way player hasn’t been exceeded by many (Jimmy Butler being one) this season. He’ll need to be productive offensively, but the big key is how he performs defensively against LeBron.
Cleveland key player: Kyrie Irving
While Jeff Teague tailed off some as Atlanta’s series with Washington progressed, he’s still a very good point guard who can make things happen offensively. Irving’s health — and these days off before the series begins on Wednesday should help some — is key in limiting the Hawks’ starting point guard. And on the other end, Kyrie has to be that quality option alongside LeBron James as both a shooter and a penetrator.
Matchup/battle Atlanta must win: Defensive rebounding percentage (vs. Cleveland’s offensive rebounding percentage)
Matchup/battle Cleveland must win: Three-point shooting
Series Prediction: Cavs in 6
Atlanta’s whole can’t be underestimated, and its 60-win regular season is evidence that this is a team to be respected. But in the end, the Hawks don’t have LeBron James. Even with Kevin Love out and Kyrie Irving hobbled, he’s enough to get the job done.
AARON TORRES, FOX SPORTS LIVE SHOW WRITER /
COLLEGE FOOTBALL & BASKETBALL WRITER FOR FOX SPORTS – @Aaron_Torres
Atlanta key player: DeMarre Carroll
Cleveland key player: J.R. Smith
Matchup/battle Atlanta must win: Defensive three-point field goal percentage (aka, don’t let Cleveland get hot from deep)
Matchup/battle Cleveland must win: Bench points
I mentioned it above, and I can’t believe I’m saying it here, but I think the key to the series for the Cavs — and ultimately why I’m picking them — is J.R. Smith. Well, J.R. Smith and everything that he represents.
What do I mean by that?
For starters, the Cavs were a different team with Smith on the floor against Chicago; after his suspension, Cleveland won three of its next four games, including one (Game 4) that he basically won for them. Yes, LeBron closed out Game 4 with a buzzer beater. But the Cavs would’ve never been in position to win it without Smith’s 11 fourth quarter points.
To take things a step further though, when I said that the key to the series is “J.R. Smith and everything he represents,” what I’m saying is that he’s just one of several, random bench guys who stepped up against Chicago. It’s funny; we spent so much time over the last few weeks focusing on Kyrie Irving’s bum foot, LeBron’s bad shooting and Kevin Love’s overall absence, that everyone seems to have failed to notice that the Cavs actually won the last three games of their series against Chicago…and won the last two convincingly.
Forget LeBron, Kyrie and Love… the new “Big Three” in Cleveland is J.R., Dellavedova and Tristan Thompson!
Ok, may not.
But the truth is, Cleveland wouldn’t be here without its bench. And it’s that bench which will carry the Cavs to a series win against the Hawks.
Series Prediction: Cavs in 6
*
CROSSOVER CHRONICLES PANELISTS
BART DOAN, CROSSOVER CHRONICLES STAFF WRITER – @CrossoverNBA
Atlanta key player: Pero Antic.
When he’s on, Antic is a horrific guy to have to check. He’s scrappy enough to irritate you, and has range enough to bring your bigs out to uncomfortable places. The Bulls had basically a hobbled Pau Gasol, and that was it when it came to playing this role… which Gasol did as best he could. Anytime you have a big who can step out and still scrap, it makes you hesitant on the pick and roll, which is where the Cavs have struggled.
Cleveland key player: Iman Shumpert.
The Hawks thrive on ball movement and being able to get into the paint, forcing the defense to collapse. The key to that is Jeff Teague, which a banged-up Kyrie Irving and a game but ultimately not ideal defender, Matthew Dellavedova, won’t be able to check. Shumpert will need to keep Teague in front of him as much as he can, allowing fewer free passing lanes that help the Hawks thrive.
Matchup/battle Atlanta has to win: Preventing Lebron from being transcendent.
The fact that the Cavs have made it this far with a hobbled Kyrie Irving, no Kevin Love, and no Anderson Varejao is a testament to Lebron James’ greatness, among other things. But to put the Cavs away, they’ll need to focus all of their efforts on not letting him be legendary, and merely letting him be great. That means when he has the ball, shading him to his strong hand, collapsing in the paint, making anyone … anyone … other than him make shots to win and see if those role players can do so. If they can, fine. But that’s a lot better than seeing if Lebron can do it. He’s their soul. He struggles, they struggle, mentally and otherwise. Remember, even with the Miami Heat … when you get Lebron funked, you get the entire team funked.
Matchup/battle Cleveland has to win: The pick and roll on defense.
The genesis of most half-court offenses is in some way tied to the pick and roll. Cleveland’s issue will be getting out on Atlanta’s shooters and not over-playing to the point where it allows easy ball movement, but still having the ability to get back and tend to the boards. The Hawks will assuredly try to devise plans to keep Tristan Thompson from getting easy boards. How do the Cavs adjust?
Series Prediction: Cavs in 6
JOSEPH NARDONE, CROSSOVER CHRONICLES STAFF WRITER – @JosephNardone
Atlanta key player: Kyle Korver
Korver needs to mentally dump his Washington-series performance, and revert back to form. While it might only be my opinion that the Hawks are overmatched, everyone should agree that they have no shot unless Korver is hitting buckets with the regularity which he did in the regular season.
Cleveland key player: LeBron James
He is the best player on Earth. If you’re picking anyone else, then you are likely either trying to be cute or have some really good insights I do not understand, because I’m just a mere mortal.
Matchup/battle Atlanta must win: Jeff Teague vs. Kyrie Irving
“Winning” the battle is probably the wrong phrase. Nevertheless, if Teague were to offset some of Irving’s greatness or even be better at him for large stretches in the series, he can give the Hawks a boost to their win probability. I wouldn’t be shocked if the two never guarded each other, or at least for most of each game, but if their box scores look similar, it is a pretty safe assumption that any person rooting for Atlanta would consider that a “win in a battle,” which could help the Hawks win the war.
Matchup/battle Cleveland must win: Bench production
I wouldn’t really say the Cavs “need” to win this battle, but it is a facet of this series which — if dominated by Cleveland — would certainly kill any of Atlanta’s chances. It wouldn’t be bad, either, if the Cavaliers started to build their bench’s confidence going into the NBA Finals.
Series Prediction: Cavs in 7
JOE MANGANIELLO, CROSSOVER CHRONICLES SENIOR WRITER – @thatjoemags
Atlanta key player: Kyle Korver
Cleveland key player: Timofey Mozgov
Matchup/battle Atlanta must win: On the perimeter with its athletic, versatile frontcourt.
Matchup/battle Cleveland must win: Punish Atlanta on missed shots by ripping the boards.
Series Prediction: Hawks in 7.
Short of a healthy Chicago team finally connecting all the wires, this is the East Finals series we all wanted. After a few promising regular season bouts, the main event will feature altered versions of each team: Atlanta is hampered by injuries and missing bench cog Thabo Sefolosha. Cleveland, without Kevin Love, has far and away the shortest rotation of any Final Four team.
This series seems easy to dissect — one team has LeBron James and Kyrie Irving, and the other does not — but there are a myriad of variables in addition to the ones mentioned above that suggest a six-or seven-game grind. My favorite question: Who will James, the closest thing to a power forward on the Cavaliers, guard in crunch time? If he shuts down Paul Millsap, great, but who checks Kyle Korver?
We’re learning more and more about the NBA every year, living in the “Advanced Stats Boom.” Whether or not a non-superstar like Kyle Korver can swing a conference finals will be fascinating basketball theater.
BRYAN GIBBERMAN, CROSSOVER CHRONICLES STAFF WRITER – @Gibberman10
Atlanta key player: Kyle Korver
Korver hasn’t been bad in the playoffs, but he also hasn’t been “scorching hot I’m never gonna miss a three” Korver. He seemed to be the last link missing, as Al Horford and Paul Millsap both found their games versus the Washington Wizards in the Eastern Conference semifinals. If Korver finding his shot is the key for Atlanta to pull off this upset, I’ll guess he will in the next two weeks.
Cleveland key player: Kyrie Irving
If Irving isn’t healthy, this spells trouble for the Cavs. Even LeBron James needs some secondary ball handling help, and Irving is the only player left on the Cleveland roster to be relied upon in this fashion. Putting it on J.R. Smith and Iman Shumpert to be your secondary creators versus shot makers is a dangerous game.
Matchup/battle Atlanta must win: The three-point line
The Hawks are going to have to finish a positive in the three-point battle on a nightly basis. If they let Cleveland get the best of them there, it’s going to be hard for them to overcome that and win this series.
Matchup/battle Cleveland must win: Offensive rebounds
I don’t typically consider offensive rebounding a hugely important aspect of basketball, but it has been advantageous for the Cavs. If Tristan Thompson and Timofey Mozgov can continue to get Cleveland extra possessions, that gives the Cavs more of a margin for error.
Series Prediction: Hawks in 7.
I said during the regular season if the Hawks and Cavaliers met in the playoffs, I’d go with Atlanta. I’m sticking with it. The Hawks are the more cohesive offensive unit and should be able to attack the Cavs’ defensive weaknesses. Atlanta’s starting lineup has been spectacular during the playoffs, and if it plays together enough, it should be able to give the Hawks a chance to win this series.
MATT ZEMEK, CROSSOVER CHRONICLES INTERIM EDITOR – @CrossoverNBA
Atlanta key player: Kyle Korver
Cleveland key player: Tristan Thompson
Matchup/battle Atlanta must win: Dennis Schroder vs. Playoff Pressure
Matchup/battle Cleveland must win: Defensive rebounding percentage
If you think Kyle Korver will go off in this series, you’ll probably pick the Hawks in 7. However, Korver looks like a player who is thinking too much about the fact that his shot’s not going down the way it did in the regular season. Rebounding will therefore take center stage in this series, which means Tristan Thompson is Cleveland’s key role player. It also means that if the Cavs can make Atlanta a “one and done” team at the offensive end of the floor, they can limit the Hawks’ scoring output and play this series the way they want to. No Kevin Love and a banged-up Kyrie Irving mean that Cleveland has to win this series with defense. If the Cavs don’t allow second-chance points, they should make their way to the NBA Finals.
Series Prediction: Cavs in 6