The Cleveland Indians line-up that will play later today will almost certainly be greatly changed when they end the season as Central Division champions on October 2nd. While that is true of any team, more than any other time in recent history, the 2016 Indians have been built that way on purpose. Rather than being built to fail, they have been built to survive the failure of any individual part.
Every year for every team, some players get injured and others under perform forcing the team into bad situations where they have to force a young player into a position they aren’t ready for or sign one of the few remaining free agents. Essentially, the Indians already did this.
Rather than going into the season with an acceptable roster similar to the end of 2015 including Giovanny Urshela at third and Lonnie Chisenhall in right, Mike Chernoff went for MLB veteran depth in his first off-season as GM. Signing Juan Uribe, Rajai Davis and Marlon Byrd helped shore up those two positions in particular, but more importantly, those players being replaced to start the season are still with the team. Urshela will stay in AAA and Chisenhall on the DL to begin the year, but should Uribe or Byrd fail in one manner or another, they can easily be replaced by players who already have significant Major League experience without any further cost in dollars or talent.
Mike Napoli was probably the biggest signing of the off-season and the Indians don’t have much depth at first base, but even he is fairly easily replaceable if necessary. Carlos Santana is good enough at first and prefers playing there to DH and this move would free up the designated hitter for literally anyone on the team. This could be a player like Byrd once Chisenhall or Michael Brantley returns or it could be Roberto Perez (if he is hitting well) or a revolving door of players getting a half day off. If this was the case, the Jose Ramirez fanatics would be extremely happy as it would mean he would probably be playing nearly every day at one position or another in a Chone Figgins type fashion.
The bullpen is another perfect example of this. The Indians could have started the season with Shawn Armstrong, Giovanni Soto and Jeff Johnson in relief roles, but instead they went with Ross Detwiler, Joba Chamberlain and Dan Otero. These three may not be the best options for the long term, but by having all three on the roster they will be able to determine who is dependable (or expendable) by the time Tommy Hunter and Craig Stammen return from the DL. In this ever evolving roster, the Indians could start the year with the current trio, move on to Hunter and Stammen and end the year with Armstrong, Johnson and Austin Adams. There are so many MLB ready relief options that it would be nearly impossible for the Indians to run out of qualified relievers even if they have to DFA all the non-roster invitees who made the team out of Spring Training.
This type of construction exists throughout the entire roster, including the starting rotation which is still the Indians’ greatest strength. While including Cody Anderson in the rotation to start the season was a bit of a surprise, it gives the Indians six starters on the 25 man to begin the year and, should one falter, it would take no official roster changes to replace him. This could be due to injury or poor performance and could be a one time thing or long term.
Clevinger throws during MLB action Spring 2016 in Goodyear, AZ. – Joseph Coblitz, BurningRiverBaseball
Because the Indians have three aces, they could even survive the loss of one of the three more easily than nearly any other team in baseball and certainly more easily than any other Indians team since 1969. If they have to go beyond the current group, including Trevor Bauer, there is always T.J. House in AAA along with Mike Clevinger, who will likely make his MLB debut this season after dominating in AA last year and Spring Training this year.
Speaking of AAA, there are even more options than those already mentioned. Should the outfield need more help (like if Brantley comes back later than expected, Chisenhall gets off to a slow start or anyone else is unable to perform), Joey Butler is a great first option, but there are better options coming down the line. Late in the season, Indians fans will almost certainly be clamoring for Bradley Zimmer, who will begin in AA, but will like
ly move up to Columbus very quickly. If the outfield by the end of the season is Zimmer, Naquin and Chisenhall with Brantley at DH, it wouldn’t be a huge surprise and could be the best possible outcome offensively and defensively for the team.
In the middle infield, there is less flexibility, particularly considering the quality of the next player up compared to the current. There is no obvious replacement for Jason Kipnis or Francisco Lindor although Erik Gonzalez is about as ready as he’ll ever be for a utility man role. One possible solution, however, is Uribe who has played considerably at third, short and second even playing a little at first and in the outfield. Should something happen to Kipnis, the worst case scenario would be to see him be replaced in the line-up by Urshela with Uribe moving to second. Short would be harder to fix, but at least Ramirez has Major League experience as a starting short stop, even if it didn’t go so well the first time.
Some complained when the Indians didn’t sign a big name this off-season, going for patches for the line-up holes rather than buying a whole new tire. The biggest reason for this was their minor league depth. Why sign Jason Heyward to an 8 year, $184M deal when Zimmer is less than a year away and Clint Frazier is most likely only two years away? Players like Uribe won’t hold players like Urshela and Yandy Diaz back. If a minor leaguer is performing at a level that makes them look more valuable than their Major League counterpart, the Indians should be less cautious than in previous seasons. Unlike the deals made with Nick Swisher, Michael Bourn and even Ryan Raburn, the free agents brought in this year are all on one year deals and owed relatively small amounts by a Major League standard. If the Indians will be better with Urshela than Uribe, for example, I don’t believe the Indians will hesitate to make the move. If they wouldn’t be, however, Uribe is here to make sure they get at least some offensive production from third base.
Byrd was the last signing of the bunch and possibly the smartest. He is owed just $1M this year and should help the Indians greatly in April when they need to put together a full roster despite the loss of Brantley and Chisenhall to the DL. Once they return, if Byrd is playing well, he should still get regular playing time as a platoon mate for Chisenhall. If he isn’t, he could be traded mid-season for the second season in a row or simply released.
The amount of options this team has at nearly every position places them in the best possible position to survive the season. The aging veterans should help the team survive the early months better than in previous seasons and the young stars should carry the rest of the year. Because of the variability, it is impossible to predict who will be on the final Indians roster, but I can guarantee that it will not be the same starting line-up that played on April 4th.