The page from postseason to next season turns abruptly.
One minute the Stanley Cup is being paraded around the ice as a new champion is crowned. The next, speculation of trades and potential buyouts begins. The focus shifts quickly from how the team performed this season to how the roster will look next season.
GM Steve Yzerman and the Bolts hold three of the top 60 picks in the draft (Getty Images)
“We have a very busy month here getting into June, a lot going in preparation for the draft,’’ Lightning general manager Steve Yzerman said shortly after Tampa Bay’s season came to an end. “We have several players whose contracts are up, restricted and unrestricted free agents. So we have a lot of work to do . . . on moving forward.’’
Welcome to next season. That time is already at hand.
Draft weekend in Buffalo takes place June 24-25 at First Niagara Center. It’s a weekend that historically belongs to the future.
The hopes and dreams of the players selected are on full display. The shape of a franchise often starts to mold into shape. The entire weekend is built around the future of any franchise watching draft pick after draft pick gets paraded around the host arena wearing the jerseys and caps of the teams they hope to play for one day.
But times have changed in recent years.
Increasingly in the salary cap era the focus for teams at draft weekend has as much about the now as it is next.
Because of how rosters are structured since the implementation of the salary cap, reshaping teams after training camps begin often becomes more about the math than about the hockey. Salary structures are already in place when players report to camp in September.
Making a hockey deal becomes a challenge once that time of year comes around. Player for player swaps have turned into salary for salary trades.
You take my bad contract and I’ll take yours becomes a common phrase turned by general managers around the league.
Which brings us back to draft weekend and how it’s turned into a key point of the hockey calendar. Trades often become a bigger story-line to follow than the top players who are selected.
At the 2015 draft, where Connor McDavid and Jack Eichel were generational talents at the top of the draft pool, it was the Boston Bruins that grab headlines with trades that sent young blue liner Dougie Hamilton and popular power forward Milan Lucic out as the Bruins looked to reshape their roster. Buffalo did the same with opposite results, acquiring two-way center Ryan O’Reilly and goaltender Robin Lehner looking to strengthen their roster.
The 2014 draft, when Tampa Bay acquired Jason Garrison from Vancouver, also big names such as Ryan Kesler, James Neal, Patric Hornqvist and Nick Bonino changed teams.
What does that all mean for the Lightning heading in to the 2016 draft?
It means Tampa Bay might very well be the team to keep an eye on when all 30 franchises assemble in Buffalo for three days.
While Steve Yzerman and his scouting staff, led by Al Murray, hold three of the top 60 picks in the draft (27th, 44th and 58th) and nine picks overall, there is plenty to look forward at the draft table. Given the Lightning’s recent success at the draft, that should hold plenty of value in helping Tampa Bay maintain a strong farm system that has been in place since Yzerman assumed the general manager duties.
But that’s not why Tampa Bay needs to be followed closely.
This might very well go down as the summer of transition for the franchise. Roster moves ahead of next season will almost assuredly have to be made as the roster that led Tampa Bay to the 2015 Stanley Cup Final and the 2016 Eastern Conference finals will almost certainly have a different look once the season opens in October.
“Potentially,’’ Yzerman said of roster changes. “To what extent I don’t know right now. But I look at not only the free agents, the contracts, the salary cap is an issue for us. And I don’t know for certain but I’ve got to keep expansion on the horizon as well. So those two reasons, potentially, might force us to have a little bit different look, but the nucleus of this team won’t change dramatically.”
The best time to start that transition and reshape the roster starts now.
Will Steven Stamkos stay or will he go? (Photo by Sanford Myers/Getty Images)
While the immediate future of Steven Stamkos will be the biggest storyline surrounding Tampa Bay leading up to July 1 and the start of free agency – will he stay or will he go – other situations will be just as important to keep a close eye on.
The Lightning have several key restricted free agents up for new deals that will require raises – Nikita Kucherov, Alex Killorn, Vladislav Namestnikov, Cedric Paquette and J.T. Brown.
That brings the salary cap in to play in how it affects what Tampa Bay wants to do.
The exact salary cap number is expected to come out before the draft, with most estimates around $73 million. Tampa Bay currently has approximately $52.5 million committed to just 15 players, leaving around $20 million in space available for between 7-8 players.
While having Mattias Ohlund come off the books – finally – as well as the retained salary on the contract of Sam Gagner, that helps open up nearly $5.2 million in cap space. But it doesn’t alleviate all of the Lightning’s salary cap issues.
There are other options to consider and keep tabs on over the next couple of weeks.
Matt Carle is a popular player when it comes to shedding some salary. No doubt moving Carle is something high on Tampa Bay’s list. First choice might come from trying to trade Carle, who carries a $5.5 million hit, and retaining some salary in order to facilitate a trade that would keep the Lightning on the hook for two years if they hold back some salary.
The other option would be to buy out the remaining two years on Carle’s contract, which would pay him two-third the remaining balance of the contract spread out over four years. That would save the Lightning approximately $3.6 million over the next two years as the Tampa Bay would carry a $1.8 million cap hit for four years.
Tampa Bay’s goaltending situation will also come into play.
Ben Bishop has one year remaining on his contract that carries a $5.9 million salary cap. Andrei Vasilevskiy has one year left on his entry level contract that carries a base salary cap hit of $925,000 plus incentive bonuses.
At some point, a decision has to be made as to which goalie Tampa Bay will retain moving forward. And with
Is goalie Ben Bishop the likely candidate to go? (Getty Images)
expansion likely coming for next season, the Lightning will only be able to protect one.
That means draft weekend could be the right time to explore moving one or the other, with Bishop the likely candidate despite all the success Tampa Bay has enjoyed since he joined the team in 2013. And even if that decision is not made at the draft, the groundwork could be put in to place to consummate a move this summer.
So as the league is set to descend on Buffalo with all eyes set on the future of the Lightning franchise, the focus for Tampa Bay will almost certainly be on the present.
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