With the midseason point of the 2014 NFL season now in the books, it’s the time of year when we start looking at which teams are contenders and pretenders in the playoff picture.
It is not, however, the time of year that we’re accustomed to seeing the Cleveland Browns in first place in the AFC North. But that’s exactly where they stand after dominating the Cincinnati Bengals, 24-3, on Thursday Night Football.
The Browns got Week 10 off to a surprising start and established themselves as a legitimate contender and force to be reckoned with.
They were one of eleven teams that entered Week 10 with winning records in the AFC, according to the Elias Sports Bureau. That’s a Los Angeles-style traffic jam right there (not that there are any teams from L.A. in the NFL—not currently, anyway).
Meanwhile, on the other side of the fence, it might not take a winning record to finish first in the wretched NFC South. The (4-4) Saints will likely win that division and make the playoffs as long as they remember how to dress themselves. The wild cards in the NFC will come from the other three divisions.
Just about every team except the Jaguars, Jets, Raiders and Buccaneers harbor playoff hopes as the season really heats up. So here are five contenders and pretenders heading into Sunday’s Week 10 slate.
Contenders
Cleveland Browns (6-3)
Another week, another milestone win for the Browns. Pretty soon they’ll have enough milestones to mark off a marathon.
First, they broke the record for largest comeback win on the road, roaring back from 25 points down to beat the Tennessee Titans, 29-28, in Week 5.
The following week they pounded the Steelers, 31-10, at the Dawg Pound, their most lopsided victory over Pittsburgh in 25 years.
Then, on Thursday night, the Browns added to this year’s collection of “firsts” with their first division road win since 2008, routing the Bengals, 24-3. It’s also the first time the Bengals lost a regular-season game at home since 2012. Now, the Browns are in first place in the AFC North this late in the season for the first time since 2007, according to the Associated Press. They share the division’s top spot with the (6-3) Steelers.
The Browns knocked the Bengals from first place by sacking Andy Dalton twice and intercepting him three times. They allowed the Bengals to convert just three of 17 third-down attempts and ran for 170 yards after failing to run for more than 69 in their three previous games.
Since their bye in Week 4, the Browns are 5-1. Their 24-6 loss at Jacksonville is the skunk at the lawn party, but with all the parity in the NFL, every team is allowed one stinker. After all, their roommates in the AFC North penthouse lost to Tampa Bay at home.
Detroit Lions (6-2)
The Lions lead the NFC North. But these are the Lions, so their contender status isn’t a given.
The Lions boast the NFL’s top defense in terms of yards per game (290.4) and points per game (15.8). They’ve weathered the absence of Calvin Johnson, going 3-0 when he sat out with an ankle injury. Golden Tate caught 24 passes, two for touchdowns, during that time.
Tate caught a 73-yard touchdown pass from Matthew Stafford to slash a 23-10 deficit to 23-17 against the Saints with four minutes left in Week 7. Then Glover Quin’s interception set up the go-ahead touchdown, and the Lions won, 24-23.
The Lions showed more resiliency the following week. They fell behind the Atlanta Falcons, 21-0, in the second quarter in London, but won on a last-second field goal by Matt Prater.
Lurking on the Lions’ schedule is a home game against (5-3) Miami on Sunday followed by road games at (7-1) Arizona and (7-2) New England. But the Lions have had their bye week to recharge, and they’re expected to have Megatron back Sunday. Don’t be surprised if they win their first division title since 1993.
Green Bay Packers (5-3)
So far, the Packers’ losses have all come on the road (at Seattle, Detroit and New Orleans).
The loss at Seattle came when the Seahawks still had their championship aura. The Lions lead the NFC North with the league’s top-ranked defense. The Saints haven’t lost at home since 2012.
No red flags there.
As long as Aaron Rodgers’ hamstring holds up, the Packers will be playing in January for the sixth straight season. Rodgers’ 113.6 passer rating is the best among quarterbacks who have thrown at least 50 passes this season, and running back Eddie Lacy is regaining the form that earned him 2013 AP Offensive Rookie of the Year honors. After failing to average four yards or more per carry in any of the first four games, Lacy has averaged 5.1 yards per carry in the last four games.
Defensively, the Packers are winning the turnover battle. Their plus-8 giveaway/takeaway ratio is third in the league behind the Patriots and Cardinals. Cornerbacks Sam Shields and Casey Hayward both have two interceptions, and six other Packers have one interception. That’s some vintage 2010 Packers defense, and they raised the Lombardi Trophy that year.
Kansas City Chiefs (5-3)
The Chiefs have only had one real stinker of a game, and that came in Week 1 when they lost, 26-10, at home to Tennessee. They lost again the next week, but they gave the Broncos all they could handle in a seven-point loss at Denver.
Since that 0-2 start, the Chiefs have won five of their last six games and they’re the last team to beat the Patriots.
Justin Houston leads the NFL with 12 sacks. No one else has more than nine. He’s on pace to break Michael Strahan’s single-season record of 22.5 sacks and he’s a major reason why the Chiefs have the NFL’s top passing defense and No. 5 overall defense.
Jamaal Charles, who was third in the league with 1,287 rushing yards last season, has just 435 this year. It might not be realistic for the Chiefs to expect Charles to surge in the second half the way he did last year, when he averaged six yards per carry in November and December. This year, six of the Chiefs’ eight remaining games are against teams in the top half of the league against the run.
The other two games are against the winless Raiders. Just the fact that they’re 5-3 without feasting on the Raiders is enough to make the Chiefs contenders. They also get the Broncos and Chargers at home.
Miami Dolphins (5-3)
The Dolphins blew a playoff berth in 2013 by losing their last two games and finishing 8-8.
Miami won’t lose its last two games this season. The Dolphins finish with home games against the (4-5) Vikings and (1-8) Jets, and they have what it takes to cross the challenging bridge before that which includes trips to (6-2) Detroit, (6-2) Denver and (7-2) New England.
The Dolphins’ defense ranks second in the league against the pass and third overall. After returning two interceptions for touchdowns in a (27-13) win at Jacksonville in Week 8, the Dolphins became the first team Sunday to shut out the Chargers since 1999. Philip Rivers was intercepted three times (in just three quarters) for just the fourth time in his career and his 31.0 passer rating was the third-lowest of his career.
Coupled with the Dolphins’ formidable defense is the guy who looks like their first franchise quarterback since Dan Marino.
Ryan Tannehill has thrown six touchdowns and one interception during Miami’s three-game winning streak. He’s also been strikingly consistent running the ball. In the last four games, he’s run for 49, 48, 48 and 47 yards. He’s fourth among quarterbacks with 245 rushing yards.
Dolphins fans can now look back and laugh at the days of Chad Henne and Matt Moore.
(‘Pretenders’ can be found on Page 2.)