Four potential upsets in NFL Week 12

by | Nov 27, 2015

One upset already has taken place in Week 12 of the 2015 NFL season, but there could be more on Sunday.

The NFL’s Thanksgiving slate served up a stunner when the Bears defeated the Packers 17-13 in the nightcap of the holiday tripleheader, and there should be enough leftovers for an upset sandwich or two before the end of Week 12.

Not all of these potential upsets will register highly on the shock meter, but some of the consensus lines on Sports Book Review as of noon on Friday seem a little off. The Cowboys were actually favorites at one point over the Panthers, for crying out loud.

Watch for these possible upsets and point spreads that can be exploited.

Minnesota (+ 1 1/2) at Atlanta

The Vikings (7-3) hit a bump in the road Sunday, losing 30-13 at home to the Packers, but the Falcons (6-4) are really struggling. Atlanta has lost four of its last five games and none of the teams the Falcons have played this season currently have a winning record. Matt Ryan has thrown 10 interceptions this season, including three in Sunday’s loss at home to Indianapolis, and has had three games with passer ratings under 68. The Vikings have allowed 224.8 passing yards per game, seventh in the league, and their run-stopping duties will be a little easier with Devonta Freeman likely out with a concussion.

Tampa Bay (+3) at Indianapolis

Jameis Winston has thrown nine touchdown passes and two interceptions over the last six games, and the Buccaneers (5-5) have gone 4-2 in those games. He torched the Eagles for five touchdown passes last week and he faces the NFL’s No. 29 pass defense Sunday (278.9 yards per game) and the No. 30 pass rush (14 sacks). The Colts (5-5) started the season 0-2, losing both games by 13 points. Since then, all their games have been decided by seven points or less. The last three have been decided by three points. This is a game between two .500 teams that could go either way, and the Bucs are 3-2 on the road this season.

Pittsburgh (+3 1/2) at Seattle

The Seahawks are 25-4 at home since 2012, and no AFC team has won there since 2011. The Seahawks (5-5) have lost their air of invincibility, but it still takes a good team to win at Seattle. Only the unbeaten Panthers and NFC West-leading Cardinals have done it this season. The Steelers (6-4) might be up to the task. The Seahawks are allowing 303.6 yards per game, second in the NFL. However, they’ve only played three offenses ranked in the top half of the league (Bengals, Panthers, Cardinals) and lost all three of those games. The Steelers offense is ranked sixth, and on defense they have 28 sacks. The Seahawks have allowed 35 sacks. Only the Browns have given up more.

New England at Denver (+3)

The Patriots (10-0) are getting more respect from Vegas than the Panthers did going into Dallas. A lot of that might have to do with the fact that they’re facing a backup quarterback, but they’d be better off against a broken-down Peyton Manning than Brock Osweiler, who three touchdown passes in Chicago against a defense that stifled Aaron Rodgers Thursday night. Bill Belichick will have plenty of schemes cooked up for the unseasoned Osweiler, but can the Patriots score enough points?

The Patriots already are without Dion Lewis and Julian Edelman. Danny Amendola returned to practice Thursday after suffering a knee sprain Monday night, according to MassLive.com. If Amendola isn’t available in Denver, the Patriots’ top two receivers will be the inconsistent Brandon LaFell and the undrafted Chris Harper. The Patriots aren’t dominating teams like they were earlier in the sedason. They’ve been held to less than 30 points in three straight games after scoring 30 or more in six straight. The Bills had Tom Brady on the run all night on Monday, and the Broncos (8-2) lead the league with 34 sacks.

It’ll be an interesting Sunday Night Football matchup.