The 2015 MLB regular season concludes on Sunday, Oct. 4. The following day could be a bloody one for major league managers. We could very well be referring to it as Black Monday, as 10 managers could potentially be dismissed after the season ends — if not the very next day, then soon thereafter. A couple of skippers are already rumored to be gone; all that remains is the official announcement. That is one-third of the positions available in MLB, which would result in some significant upheaval throughout the sport.
So who is most likely to be fired once the regular season concludes? Whose seat is the hottest as Oct. 5 approaches? Here is a ranking of the MLB managers whose jobs are likely in the most jeopardy. This includes two interim managers, who may be replaced anyway by virtue of their current job title. (It doesn’t include managers who will make it to the postseason. Only the Dodgers’ Don Mattingly would seemingly be in trouble if his team loses early on.)
[A tip of the hat to Ken Miller of 1700 The Champ in Des Moines, Iowa for inspiring this idea a couple of weeks ago when he and Marty Tirrell had me on their radio show for one of my regular appearances.]
1. Brad Ausmus, Tigers:
According to reports out of Detroit, the decision has already been made to fire Ausmus. It’s just a matter of the Tigers finishing out what’s become a hopeless season. The team’s front office, led by new general manager Al Avila, surely didn’t mean for such news to leak out, resulting in an embarrassing and awkward situation to deal with. But it indicates the dissatisfaction with Ausmus and the desire by owner Mike Ilitch (who reportedly was never on board with hiring Ausmus) to quickly move on. There are rumblings that Detroit is already set to hire former Twins skipper Ron Gardenhire, who has the opposite profile of Ausmus.
2. Dan Jennings, Marlins:
This is another decision that’s already been made, as reported by Fox Sports’ Ken Rosenthal. The Marlins want Jennings to move back up to his position in the front office, from which he was called down to replace Mike Redmond in May. With no managerial experience since coaching a high school team in the 1980s, moving Jennings to the dugout was a disastrous move, one questioned by Marlins players and resented by managers throughout MLB. The only question remaining for Jennings is whether he takes his old job back (others in the Miami front office are reportedly favored by owner Jeffrey Loria) or he moves on to another GM opening, such as the one in Seattle.
WASHINGTON, DC – SEPTEMBER 08: Manager Matt Williams #9 of the Washington Nationals talks with Yunel Escobar #5 during the seventh inning against the New York Mets at Nationals Park on September 8, 2015 in Washington, DC. (Photo by Greg Fiume/Getty Images)
3. Matt Williams, Nationals:
If not for the Marlins having already reportedly decided on Jennings, Williams would be higher on this list. There may be no hotter seat for a manager in baseball than the one Williams currently sits upon. The Nationals have been a vast disappointment, picked by many as the World Series favorite with a stellar starting rotation and deep lineup. Sure, the Nats have dealt with several injuries throughout the season. But so have the Cardinals, yet that team has stayed on course. Williams’ team has shown a surprising lack of urgency since falling behind the Mets in the NL East, and his inept game management (calling for bunts in obvious run-scoring situations, stubbornly sticking to bullpen roles) has made him an easy target for derision.
4. Fredi Gonzalez, Braves:
With a contract extension through next season, Gonzalez is seemingly safe as the Braves look toward the opening of their new ballpark in 2017. Atlanta was not expected to be very good this year, as team president John Hart traded away established veterans for young talent (especially on the pitching side) in an attempt to revitalize the organization. Managing a depleted roster should really give Gonzalez a pass. But there are rumblings that the manager has lost his clubhouse in the midst of what’s been a trying season. If players have tuned him out, then it’s obviously time to make a change. And if the Braves are looking to upgrade from Gonzalez upon moving into their new park, why not just let him go and get the new guy in there?
[Editor’s Note: because they are just SO FUN TO WATCH -JL]
5. Walt Weiss, Rockies:
It’s difficult to blame Weiss for the Rockies’ record, especially when GM Jeff Bridich now apparently has the power to overhaul the roster as needed. Troy Tulowitzki was dealt at the trade deadline, and you have to figure Carlos Gonzalez will follow suit during the offseason. If not for the Phillies, Colorado would likely finish with the worst record in MLB. Yet the future currently looks brighter in Philadelphia after the infusion of young talent received in recent trades. The Rockies are still undergoing that process. Maybe that will allow Weiss some leniency, as a more experienced manager may not sign on for a rebuilding project. Yet the losing is hard to ignore. As of this writing, Weiss has a 201-268 record, resulting in the worst winning percentage (.428) in franchise history.
6. Robin Ventura, White Sox:
Perhaps the White Sox were overestimated coming into the season. But after adding Jeff Samardzija, David Robertson, Zach Duke, Melky Cabrera and Adam LaRoche, this team was expected to contend with the Royals and Tigers for a division title and a playoff spot. The AL Central has shaken out differently than predicted, with Kansas City showing last season was no fluke and the Twins emerging as the most surprising team of the season. It’s not Ventura’s fault that Samardzija has a 5.27 ERA, LaRoche is batting .211 and Cabrera has a .706 OPS. But fighting Detroit for last place in the division is not how this was supposed to go when the White Sox were clearly loading up for a playoff run, and the manager is usually the one to answer for that level of disappointment.
CHICAGO, IL – MAY 9: Manager Bryan Price #38 of the Cincinnati Reds talks to umpire Bill Welke #52 during the seventh inning in the second game of a doubleheader on May 9, 2015 at U.S. Cellular Field in Chicago, Illinois. The Chicago White Sox won 8-2. (Photo by Jon Durr/Getty Images) *** Local Caption *** Bryan Price;Bill Welke
7. Bryan Price, Reds:
The Reds play in the toughest division in MLB, one that will produce three playoff teams this year. Though the front office appeared to think one more playoff run was possible from this roster, Cincinnati really wasn’t going to compete for the postseason. Yet a last-place finish for a team that had Johnny Cueto before the trade deadline and MVP-caliber production from Joey Votto, not to mention solid seasons from Todd Frazier, Brandon Phillips, Marlon Byrd, Mike Leake and Aroldis Chapman reflects poorly on the manager. So does Price’s composure in dealing with veteran players and the media, and if the Reds are going to rebuild, they need someone with more patience and calm.
8. Lloyd McClendon, Mariners:
Firing McClendon would probably be unfair. He finished with a winning record in his first season, and though the Mariners failed to meet expectations this year, that’s due in large part to everyone not named Nelson Cruz or Felix Hernandez providing nowhere near the production needed for the team to win. The argument could be made that McClendon has gotten the most of out his team despite so many poor performances, refusing to cater to veteran status or presumably assigned roles. But he just hasn’t been given much to work with. GM Jack Zduriencik has already been fired for badly constructing this roster. Unfortunately for McClendon, who deserves better, the next GM will probably want to hire his own guy to manage the team.
9. Pat Murphy, Padres:
Murphy is yet another manager who has to worry that the team’s GM might prefer to make his own hire. The circumstances are a bit different, of course, with Murphy serving as San Diego’s interim skipper since Bud Black was fired in June. But GM A.J. Preller didn’t hire Murphy to begin with and may want to install an entirely new coaching staff to lead the roster that was overhauled last offseason and figures to be changed even further this winter. Preller was criticized for not making more moves at the trade deadline, leading to speculation that the front office believed the team could play better. However, that didn’t happen, which doesn’t help Murphy’s cause. Nor do rumblings that the Padres are reportedly interested in bringing back Brad Ausmus (who was previously a special assistant with the team) if the Tigers dismiss him.
10. Pete Mackanin, Phillies:
As with McClendon, Mackanin might lose his job when a new general manager takes over and decides to make his own hire. However, it appears that the Phillies’ interim skipper has impressed new team president Andy MacPhail with his energy and motivating the dismantled roster to play with enthusiasm. One of the frequent criticisms of former manager Ryne Sandberg is how he dealt with players, especially veterans. But Mackanin communicates well, which has resulted in a more relaxed atmosphere and will surely be important during the next couple of years as the Phillies build a new team with developing young talent. Can MacPhail and a new GM find anyone better suited for the job?