October is the most exciting month of all for sports fans. Nevermind March Madness, the tenth month of the year regularly features incredible drama in addition to a plethora of action. And the majority of it takes place on the baseball diamond.
With the 30-team, 162-game marathon of a regular season now complete, the focus has shifted to 10 clubs embarking on a sprint to the finish line—as the sport’s ultimate prize awaits.
The Kansas City Royals and San Francisco Giants both emerged victorious in their respective Wild Card showdowns, punching their tickets to the Division Series and narrowing down the contenders by two. And now it’s time to crunch the numbers and figure out which of the remaining eight teams has the best chance of winning a World Series title.
8. Kansas City Royals
Strengths:
Small ball came through tremendously in the Royals’ epic comeback to beat the visiting A’s in the AL Wild Card game. The lost art of the stolen base was revived by manager Ned Yost. Kansas City swiped seven bags—most of them coming in the late innings—to tie a postseason record. That quickness is also beneficial for a defense with several Gold Glove winners.
Yost’s curious decision to yank starter James Shields in the sixth in favor of rookie Yordano Ventura may actually benefit the Royals—as the veteran should be fresh enough to take on the Angels at Kauffman Stadium for Game 3. Shields was tops in the rotation in wins (14) and strikeouts (180) and can provide postseason experience to a team filled with young players embarking on new ground.
And speaking of young, the 23-year-old Ventura led the team with a 3.20 ERA to go along with his 14 victories. The Royals are blessed with talented youth in the bullpen—including a pair of fireballers: Wade Davis and Brandon Finnegan. In closing, Greg Holland’s 46 saves was just two behind the Major League best.
Weaknesses:
Tuesday night’s rally notwithstanding, Kansas City is limited in its ability to score runs in bunches. The offense is reliant on players in the lineup stringing together hits or walks without the luxury of a true slugger. In fact, the Royals had just nine home runs in September and 95 for the season. The man most likely to hit one out is Alex Gordon—and his homer total for the year was only 19 (along with a pedestrian .432 slugging percentage).
One major intangible that works against the Royals is experience—or lack thereof. They seemed unfazed and undaunted against the A’s, with a crowd starved for postseason baseball providing plenty of support. The magic worked for one night in K.C. And, yes, the Royals had 47 road wins. But the setting becomes far different when it’s a long series against better opponents.
Outlook:
It’s quick to make the connection that this year’s Kansas City Royals are akin to last year’s Pittsburgh Pirates. Both ended long postseason droughts and came through behind their raucous home crowds to move on to the Division Series.
If the phenomenal ride for the Royals had not gone past Tuesday night, it still would have been a memorable season—one in which the franchise saw playoff baseball for the first time since 1985. Instead, the team and their fans got a game that eased the pain of past failures.
Kansas City is easy to root for—and it’s also easy to see them bounced by the Angels. The Royals have a roster that’s set for the future. Presently, they’ll have to wait.
7. St. Louis Cardinals
Strengths:
Like clockwork, the Cards continue to get the most out of players that would fail on their own in lesser environments.
Adam Wainwright, however, would be great anywhere. He won 20 games for the second time in his career and posted his lowest WHIP (1.03) and ERA (2.38). Both Lance Lynn and Shelby Miller finished up strongly. Lynn was 7-4 with a 2.11 since early June to end up with 15 victories on the year. Miller, in his second big league season, had a 1.69 ERA over his last six starts. Opposing batters hit just .236 off him.
Their main veteran stalwart, Yadier Molina, battled and dealt with injuriy at mid-season to become healthy for the postseason. The aging catcher may be slipping statistically, but his leadership is his greatest asset. Still, he threw out nearly 48 percent of runners trying to steal. How he’ll handle speedster Dee Gordon is crucial to the Cards’ success.
It’s also about time we gave praise to Mike Matheny, now in his third year at the helm of the Cardinals and with a playoff appearance in each of those seasons. He can no longer be accused of riding the coattails of Tony LaRussa’s team.
Weaknesses:
In all honesty, it’s hard to see how St. Louis even got into the playoffs with the offense it put out. The Cards were nearly outscored, were last in the NL in terms of home runs and ranked 13th in stolen bases.
A number of players that came through in recent postseason glory—Carlos Beltran, David Freese and Allen Craig—have departed. Instead, the Redbirds are left to rely on the underachieving Jhonny Peralta (a .222 batting average in September) and the declining production of Matt Carpenter.
John Lackey was expected to jump right into the starting rotation when acquired from the Red Sox in late July. It hasn’t gone too well in his new home (3-3, 4.30 ERA). He’ll only get a postseason start (in NLDS Game 3, to be exact) due to his past achievements: two rings and six playoff wins with an ERA just above 3.00.
Outlook:
To their undying credit, the St. Louis Cardinals don’t give in. They could have easily conceded a second place finish and settled for a battle in the Wild Card chase.
Instead, Matheny’s club showed the same resolve that got them to the World Series in 2006, 2011 and 2013. By winning nine of ten games heading into September, St. Louis took command of the Central.
The magic this franchise seems to have is a formula that the rest of the league envies—and it once again got them to the postseason. However, a trip back to the World Series is hard to envision. The starting pitching behind Wainwright isn’t as dominant. Conversely, a weaker offense has to endure a great pair of arms in Kershaw and Greinke and—possibly—a consistent staff in Washington.
6. San Francisco Giants
Strengths:
The core of this club—manager Bruce Bochy, catcher Buster Posey and ace Madison Bumgarner—are by no means strangers to the playoffs. In fact, the Giants have two of the past four World Series titles.
Bumgarner stood out and performed more like an ace over the season’s second half—going 8-3 with a 2.29 ERA. He kept it up by shutting out the Pirates on Wednesday to earn San Francisco a date with the top-seeded Nationals.
Buster Posey didn’t always play like the MVP he’s been, and wasn’t always the best hitter amongst his teammates. He, too, turned it around in August and September. For those two months, Posey hit 13 home runs, drove in 35 and contributed a batting average of .361.
Hunter Pence wasn’t particularly effective in September, but he still ranked second in runs scored. Brandon Crawford, meanwhile, prevents plenty of runs with his range and arm at shortstop. That certainly gets forgotten when you hit a grand slam in the Wild Card game.
Weaknesses:
Bochy’s pitchers—namely the starters—are versatile, able and ready to go. There’s just not entirely reliable. At season’s start, you’d gladly make Tim Hudson a No. 2. At season’s end, his status is unknown due to a horrid final month that saw him go 0-4 with an 8.72 ERA. Ryan Vogelsong wasn’t much better during that span. He also went 0-4 for September and had a hefty ERA of 5.53.
The late-season struggles affected Pablo Sandoval, as well. His batting average over the final four weeks was barely above .200 and he got on base at a rate of just 28 percent.
His decline may be the product of not having Michael Morse in the lineup. An oblique injury has kept the left fielder off the postseason roster so far. His 11 home runs and 38 RBI through May was a big reason why the Giants got off to such a hot start.
Outlook:
In pressure situations, including Wednesday’s road Wild Card match-up with the Pirates at PNC Park, the Giants never show panic (unless you count Joe Panik). Many of the players on this roster are all-to0-familiar with postseason baseball—giving them an undisputed edge in the poise category.
If you’re into numerology, the past two even-numbered seasons have been very good to San Francisco. Could a third championship win in six years be in store for 2014? It could really go either way. They could maintain the mediocre play that saw them lose touch with the NL West champion Dodgers or they could revert back to being savvy (and successful) October participants. History suggests the latter—logic (and more recent history) suggests the former.
5. Detroit Tigers
Strengths:
It wasn’t the same MVP performance we are used to seeing from Miguel Cabrera (25 home runs, .313 batting average). However, he came through in September—despite a bone spur in his right ankle. During the regular season’s finale month, Cabrera hit .379 with eight homers and a .709 slugging percentage.
Cabrera remains one of the game’s most feared sluggers—even though he may not be the toughest out in Detroit’s lineup. Victor Martinez competed for the AL batting title with a .335 mark while providing additional pop (35 homers), leading the league in on-base percentage—and striking out just 42 times. J.D. Martinez also picked up Cabrera’s slack in pop—knocking 23 over the fence.
When the Tigers acquired David Price at the trade deadline, they officially possessed the last three AL Cy Young Award winners. But only one performed near that level for the entire year. The reputation of Detroit’s “Big Three” is more on past laurels, but the potential is there to be vital in this upcoming playoff run.
Price’s up-and-down season ended on a high when he cruised past Minnesota on Sunday to clinch the Central. Game 1 starter Max Scherzer went 18-5, posting a 3.15 ERA and 10.3 strikeouts per nine innings. We know Justin Verlander isn’t going to return to his dominant form of 2011 or 2012, but he did win in five of his last seven starts.
Weaknesses:
There has been great trepidation among the citizens of Motown when manager Brad Ausmus goes to closer Joe Nathan in the ninth—Brad Ausmus being chief among them. His first year with the Tigers was one he’d rather forget as he blew seven of 41 save opportunities and posted an ERA of 4.89 with 4.6 walks per nine innings.
The struggles of Nathan were felt throughout the bullpen—mainly set-up man Joba Chamberlain, who had a 5.11 ERA over the season’s second half. Collectively, the relief staff ranked 13th in the AL with an ERA of 4.30. Beyond the efforts of Martinez and Cabrera in the lineup, there isn’t much else. Ian Kinsler, picked up this past winter from the Texas Rangers, performed below what Prince Fielder provided at the plate.
Outlook:
Turn back the calendar two months, and nobody—even the Tigers themselves—thought they would have to sweat it out to the last weekend to determine their playoff fate. But after a rough August, Detroit righted itself in September to retain the AL Central crown, edging out the challenging Royals.
To get there, they did what was expected when prognostications were made at preseason—overwhelming opponents with strong starting pitching and power at the plate. Detroit can get off to good starts, but can they finish? The Tigers undoing may be a porous bullpen that can easily be exposed by quality hitting clubs such as the Orioles or—if lucky enough to advance—the Angels.