There are no “sure things” in the NFL, especially when it comes to predicting the outcome of games. It is, however, a common occurrence for at least one underdog to beat the spread and also win outright each passing week.
Week 4 looks to be no different, with five teams that match up well against their opponents and could emerge victorious on Sunday.
Based on the odds from Sportsbookreview.com, here are five potential upsets that may happen in Week 4 of the NFL season:
Oakland Raiders at Chicago Bears (+3)
Everyone is drinking the Raiders Kool-Aid. And on paper, it appears that they could possess a 3-1 record heading into Week 5. The public certainly believes that will be the case, with 78 percent of bettors backing Oakland.
But hold that thought.
The Raiders have been listed as an underdog in 27 straight games, and now they’re laying chalk on the road. Oakland is riding a two-game win streak, the club’s first since 2012—which is also the last time the Raiders were favored away from home.
The Bears are an absolute mess and are clearly the worst team in the league. They’re averaging only 294.3 yards per game on offense, with the Raiders racking up almost that much through the air alone (282.7 yards/game).
There’s so much to love about Derek Carr, Amari Cooper, Khalil Mack and this young, talented Raiders team, but their youth will show on Sunday on the road in the form of turnovers or critical mistakes at key moments in the game.
Minnesota Vikings (+7) at Denver Broncos
The Vikings have a new identity and possess the tools to harass opposing quarterbacks on defense and run the football on offense, which is exactly how the Chiefs nearly (but should have) beat the Broncos back in Week 2.
This might end up being the most physical game of the week, with both quarterbacks in the crosshairs of attacking, pressure-orientated defenses. If Teddy Bridgewater takes care of the football, Minnesota stands a fighting chance to go into Denver and win. Peyton Manning, at 39 years of age, has struggled against opposing defenses that can generate a pass rush and take him off his spot. If they can generate interior pressure and get in his face, they may be able to keep the veteran quarterback out of a rhythm and render the offense one-dimensional.
New York Jets vs. Miami Dolphins (+1.5)
A trip to London is becoming routine for the Dolphins, who went across the pond and beat up on the Raiders 38-14 in front of roughly 83,000 fans at Wembley Stadium last season. While Miami hasn’t been a good football team so far in 2015, there’s too much talent on the roster for the Dolphins to continue playing like a 6-10 club. A hint of desperation combined with the confidence of winning in London last year could help get Joe Philbin’s team over the hump against the Jets.
Miami has won three of the last five matchups against their AFC East foe, and their stout secondary will make it tough for the Jets receivers to get separation. As a result, quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick will have to fit balls into tight windows, something he’s not good at doing, and we could see some turnovers committed by Gang Green in their first game played overseas.
Philadelphia Eagles at Washington Redskins (+3)
Divisional games away from home are never easy, and Washington is coming off a mini-bye after playing on Thursday night in Week 3.
The Redskins’ ability to stop the run (allowing 75.0 yards/game) will be on their side, as the Eagles have struggled immensely to move the football on the ground this season (ranking 30th in the league with just 64.3 yards/game).
On the other side of the ball, Washington needs to run it well with Alfred Morris and Matt Jones to take some pressure off quarterback Kirk Cousins and limit his turnovers. These two teams split a pair of three-point decisions last season, so don’t be surprised if Washington wins at home to kick off the 2015 series. They have the personnel to outmuscle the Eagles and control the line of scrimmage.
St. Louis Rams (+7) at Arizona Cardinals
There’s no tangible reason to doubt Arizona’s 3-0 start. The Cardinals dismantled the Bears and 49ers in back-to-back weeks, and no team in the league has scored more than Arizona (126 points).
Carson Palmer is playing at an MVP level and the Cardinals’ defense ranks in the top five in the NFL in points against, yards and takeaways. That being said, Arizona’s first three opponents have a grand total of one win combined—and it’s very possible the Saints, Bears and 49ers will all end up among the worst teams in the league by season’s end.
Could a visit from the Rams—and that dominant front four—be a reality check? It seems unlikely at first glance, especially with Arizona playing at home, but the Rams’ physical, grind-it-out style of play can keep games close. If they can generate pressure on the 35-year-old Palmer and make things difficult for him, they may be able to hand Arizona its first loss of the season on Sunday.