While Week 5 of the 2015 NFL season doesn’t look like it will feature many upsets at first glance, few things are more certain than a handful of underdogs beating favorites every Sunday.
Using odds from sportsbookreview.com, we’ve identified five games that could see underdogs emerging victorious on Sunday.
Seattle Seahawks (+3.0) at Cincinnati Bengals
The Bengals are off to a perfect 4-0 start so far this season, largely due to quarterback Andy Dalton’s red-hot form. He’s thrown nine touchdowns and just one interception, and his passer rating of 123.0 trails only Aaron Rodgers.
But the Seahawks could finally give him some problems on Sunday. Seattle hasn’t allowed an offensive touchdown since safety Kam Chancellor returned from his holdout. Opponents have punted 18 times over the last 20 possessions against the Seahawks, while averaging just 202 total yards per game since Chancellor’s return. It seems much safer to bet on Seattle’s defense against Dalton than vice versa.
Buffalo Bills at Tennessee Titans (+3.0)
Rex Ryan’s defenses typically feast on rookie quarterbacks, but Marcus Mariota isn’t your average rookie. His 110.3 passer rating ranks fifth in the NFL. And thanks to a bye in Week 4, the No. 2 overall pick has also had two long weeks to get a good look at the Bills’ blitz schemes and pressures.
Buffalo is coming off a poor performance in Week 4, in which quarterback Tyrod Taylor looked rattled throughout the game. The Bills converted just 3-of-16 third downs and committed 17 penalties in a 14-point home loss to the New York Giants. A few big plays under pressure from Mariota could be enough to spring the upset of Ryan’s up-and-down club.
Jacksonville Jaguars (+3.0) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The idea of the Buccaneers being a home favorite against anyone seems laughable, given the fact that Tampa Bay hasn’t won at Raymond James Stadium since 2013. The losing streak is up to 11 games after last week’s 37-23 defeat against the Carolina Panthers.
Tampa Bay has now lost its two home games this season by a combined total of 42 points. The Jaguars also inspire no confidence, especially after getting blown out in New England and failing to beat the Colts without Andrew Luck in back-to-back weeks. In fact, Jacksonville is currently riding an 11-game road losing streak. But something has to give.
The Sadness Bowl is most likely to be won by the team with the least sloppy quarterback. Amazingly, that quarterback is Blake Bortles. Furthermore, expect Jaguars rookie running back T.J. Yeldon to have a field day against the league’s 30th-ranked run defense.
New Orleans Saints (+5.0) at Philadelphia Eagles
Even with Drew Brees starting under center for the Saints, the 1-3 Eagles are still a significant favorite in this game. Confidence remains high for Chip Kelly’s club with the NFC East still wide open, while New Orleans is still being doubted by oddsmakers and analysts alike.
But don’t count out the Saints in Philadelphia. Kirk Cousins picked apart the Eagles’ defense in Week 4, completing 31 passes and leading the offense on a late 15-play touchdown drive that spanned 90 yards to win the game.
Philadelphia still can’t run the football, with only the Detroit Lions averaging fewer yards per carry than the Eagles’ 3.1. If this game eventually comes down to which quarterback plays better, the scales will shift the Saints’ way. Brees has thrown five touchdowns and just one interception over his last two regular-season games against the Eagles, which both ended in wins for New Orleans.
Arizona Cardinals at Detroit Lions (+3.0)
The Lions are the NFL’s lone winless team after four weeks of play, making them an unlikely upset pick—especially with the 3-1 Cardinals coming to Detroit. Then again, no one gave them any chance of going into CenturyLink Field and beating the Seahawks on Monday night, either. Detroit ended up a half-yard short and one blown call away from pulling off the upset. Either the Lions will look at their 0-4 start and mail it in, or Jim Caldwell’s club will return home ticked off and desperate.
It’s only a matter of time until Calvin Johnson goes off and takes a game over. Megatron has seen 41 targets from quarterback Matthew Stafford over the past three games, and even though he only managed 56 yards against the Seahawks, there’s no better time than now for him to torch his opposition.
Don’t underestimate the potential return of linebacker DeAndre Levy, either, especially going up against a shaky Cardinals offensive line. He is expected to play, and could help make life very difficult for an offense that committed three turnovers in a home loss to the Rams last week.
The Lions’ season is on the line, so we can expect a strong effort from them at home in the epitome of a must-win game.