Steven Stamkos is an elite NHL talent. While he’s out with injury, it’s easy to forget what his presence on the ice to the Lightning means. But the numbers don’t lie and that is why GM Steve Yzerman should resign him, no matter what the cost. (7 years, $10 million AAV). Based on a salary cap of $73 million, Stamkos could command as much as $14.6 million per season, which would be 20 percent of the cap, just as Patrick Kane and Jonathan Toews do. Don’t expect Stamkos to demand that amount as it would hamper Tampa Bay’s Cup winning chances. But a salary of $10-$12 million is not out of the question.
According to the Alberta Sports News Cult of Hockey, over the last five seasons Steven Stamkos is the only NHL player to fire at least 500 shots and have a shooting percentage higher than 18.0 percent. Not only that, but his margin of lead is incredible. Among the 500-shot club, Stamkos (18.1 percent), Jiri Hudler (17.7 percent) and Tyler Bozak (16.4 percent) are the only players to score on more than 16 percent of their shots. Hudler and Bozak, although undeniably gifted shooters, accomplish this in large part by being picky about when they shoot.
Stamkos isn’t that selective. If you increase the minimum number of shots to 200 per season (1,000 total), the gap between Stamkos and the rest of the NHL gets bigger. The second-ranked shooter is now Corey Perry (14.8 percent). He and Joe Pavelski (14.7 percent) are the only other scorers to clear the 14 percent mark.
Frankly, Steven Stamkos is a scoring machine. Despite his scoring numbers being down (by his unbelievably high standards) he’s averaged 44 goals for every 82 games he’s played.
Looking at GAR (Goals Above Replacement) we see that Stamkos performs at an elite level, hitting 15-20+ GAR in all but his rookie season, something done in fewer than 6% of all player-seasons.
He contributes value to his team almost 100% in offensive play: 95% of Stamkos’ career GAR comes from his offensive ability, approximately two-thirds of which coming from his shooting percentage (15.2% at 5v5) and a third from his impact on shot-rates (Corsi For) (Maple Leafs Hot Stove).
Of course these do not include Stamkos’ intangible values. He is a leader, a captain with an inspirational work ethic. He draws penalties, stays out of the box and is a power play point beast.
When you have one of the elite players on your side, you have a massive advantage in the playoffs. It’s a proven fact. Just look at recent Stanley Cup champions. From Toews, Anze Kopitar, Teemu Selanne to Sidney Crosby, they all had one. Yes, Nikita Kucherov is proving to be a scorer, but not an elite player…yet. Although the Lightning are a team in transition, the Stanley Cup window is still open…with Stamkos on the roster.
Ryan Lambert of Yahoo Sports writes:
“It should come as no surprise that in the shootout era, Stamkos has the first-and second-most valuable seasons turned in by any skater in a Lightning uniform, and by a fairly wide margin. Just as a point of reference, remember the amazing season Tyler Johnson had last year? In terms of the number of goals it provided to Tampa above what the average AHL call-up would have, it weas about 4.5 goals fewer than Stamkos’ contribution. (14.6 for Johnson, 19.1 for Stamkos) Even Kucherov, who was phenomenal last season (15.4 goals above replacement) paled in comparison.”
Are the Bolts a good team without Stamkos? Yes, but they are a great team, a Stanley Cup favorite team with him.
With Stamkos it’s not all about the money. He wants to stay in Tampa Bay and he wants to win. They’ve been close twice.
“You see the team we’ve been able to develop the past couple of years, the ownership we have, obviously (GM) Steve Yzerman, the coaching staff, the young nucleus of the team,” Stamkos said. “I feel like the old fart at 26, all these guys coming in here, but they’ve played extremely well and I want to be part of it, to say I was there from the beginning to see the end result.”
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