Judge Richard Berman is expected to make a ruling in the Tom Brady case within the next 24-48 hours, and when he does, it will become one of the major stories of the day in the country, covered by every media outlet.
When CNN, a company known for covering the stock market, elections, and breaking news on current events, stops to talk about Deflategate, you know you have a major story.
As to what Judge Berman can rule, there appear to be three possibilities:
One, Judge Berman rules in the NFL’s favor.
Two, Judge Berman rules in Tom Brady and the NFL Players Association’s favor.
Three, Judge Berman sends the case back to the NFL while addressing the need for a neutral arbitrator, which is what the NFLPA wanted.
We’ve gone over the case a thousand times, back and forth, and it’s interesting, no doubt about that. The bottom line however is this- this isn’t about deflated footballs, this hearing is about procedure, and whether the league abided by those rules or not.
The NFL and the NFLPA have an agreement (collective bargaining agreement; CBA), in which both sides agreed to certain conditions, terms, and even punishments. In some cases, NFL commissioner Roger Goddell has the power to determine punishment at his own discretion, like in the Greg Hardy case, in which he gave the former Panthers defensive lineman 10 games for a domestic violence arrest and conviction. This was reduced later to 4-games by a neutral arbitrator who made the ruling according to league policy, not by what Goodell wanted, but by what the league had agreed upon.
In other cases, Goodell has to follow the CBA when it comes to punishment, like four games for a first time offender for violating the league’s drug policy.
With Brady however, the precedent had already been set, not just on paper, but also executed in real life. Not cooperating with the NFL is punishable by fine. Tampering with footballs is punishable by fine.
Brett Favre was slapped with a $50K bill for not cooperating with the league back in 2010, and both Carolina and Minnesota were warned after being caught using sideline heaters to warm up footballs for play.
In Brady’s case, Goodell decided to forget the CBA and set his own precedence, suspending the New England QB for the first four games of the season, then upholding that suspension on appeal, which despite the pleas by the NFLPA to have a neutral arbitrator oversee the appeal, Goodell instead heard himself. All of this of course, is part of the CBA, Goodell did nothing wrong with the procedure itself.
The suspension on the hand, crossed the line and violated the CBA.
And this isn’t smoke and mirrors. Judge Berman himself has hinted at this in a very tough line of questions during several different hearings in court. In essence, he tried to, without literally winking his eye, tell the NFL “you messed up.”
But the NFL has hardened in their resolve that they are right, which they aren’t. The league took at worst, a misdemeanor and turned it into a felony.
The NFL screwed up, big time, and in the next day or two, we believe Judge Berman will make a ruling in Brady’s favor that will include a fine ONLY, will giving the league a verbal tongue lashing for violating the CBA.
He could ultimately send the case back to the league and a neutral arbitrator, who in the end, will have no choice, but to rule in Tom Brady’s favor. The CBA says it, and a neutral arbitrator, similar to the one who applied the rules correctly in the Hardy case, will have to make the same call here.
In the end, Brady’s suspension will be overturned for the simple reason that it should have never been applied in the first place.