Black Monday is just around the corner, and head coaches around the NFL are feeling the heat with only two weeks remaining in the regular season.
The verdict may already be out for some coaches, while others will likely view the final two weeks as a desperate attempt to save their jobs.
Here is an updated rundown of six coaches that are currently on the hot seat—ranked by the likeliness that they’ll be fired.
6) Tom Coughlin
(New York Giants’ record during his tenure: 103-83)
At 68 years of age, it may finally be time for the league’s oldest current head coach to consider retirement.
The Giants are known for being a patient organization that values continuity. But the team will miss the postseason for the fifth time in six years, and will also finish with a losing record for the second consecutive season. And in New York, the pressure is high and expectations are even higher.
It appears the game may be passing Coughlin by. His ground-and-pound, methodical approach worked well in the past, but the team doesn’t currently have the personnel to fit that style of play. The NFL is a full-blown passing league now, and the front office may look to hire someone who is more suited to that style.
It makes sense for Coughlin to quit while he’s ahead. He’s led the team to two Super Bowl victories in his 11 seasons as head coach, and he could be headed for the Hall of Fame when it’s all said and done.
5) Joe Philbin
(Miami Dolphins’ record during his tenure: 22-24)
The Dolphins appear to have their franchise quarterback and a talented group of young receivers around him. And the defense, for years, has been stout.
The problem is that they failed to achieve a winning record in Philbin’s first two seasons there. And unless the team wins its final two games, 2014 will be more of the same.
This is a young team that needs a head coach to light a fire under them. Philbin’s calm and collected demeanor is not a recipe for success, given their roster.
The Dolphins have yet to clinch a postseason berth during Philbin’s tenure—and they’ll likely be home watching the playoffs from the peanut gallery yet again this year. The team has a history of falling apart after Thanksgiving, and they’re currently on a losing streak after dropping three of their last four games.
If things don’t turn around in the final two weeks, Philbin could be out of a job at season’s end.
4) Mike Smith
(Atlanta Falcons’ record during his tenure: 66-49)
There’s too much talent on the roster for this team to have a combined record of 9-21 over the past two seasons. Sure, the Falcons are somehow alive to win the horrible NFC South. But that’s more of a testament to how poor each of the four teams has played this season, rather than the Falcons’ performance on the field.
The team has been lucky to feast on weak competition this season with an abysmal (1-7) record against non-NFC South opponents.
The Falcons have the highest-paid quarterback in the NFL and a great receiving corps to work with—including one of the league’s most dynamic receivers in Julio Jones. The secondary is solid, and given the talent on the roster—and the current state of the division—the Falcons should be .500 or better.
This is Smith’s seventh season as the team’s head coach. He’s posted a good regular season record over that time period, but is just 1-4 in the postseason (when it matters).
Smith has had issues with game management in the past, and he just isn’t getting the most out of this talented crop of players. The only chance to save his job may be to win the division. And while it’s possible—given the current state of the team—it doesn’t seem likely.
3) Rex Ryan
(New York Jets’ record during his tenure: 49-51)
Ryan is a defense guru, but it’s unfortunate that he’s had to coach a team that has been built by two general managers that are inept when it comes to scouting talent and player development. Both (former GM) Mike Tannenbaum and John Idzik come from financial backgrounds. The Jets fired Tannenbaum because he was more of a salary cap guy than anything—and replaced him with a salary-cap expert. That doesn’t make much sense.
Ryan led the Jets to back-to-back AFC Championship games in his first two seasons at the helm, and the future seemed bright. But the team—which was built to “win now”, rather than to have long-term success—took a few steps backward after key veterans departed and a few exorbitant contracts brought forth a salary cap fiasco. And Ryan was left with a barren roster.
Since then, the team has posted a 25-37 record and has failed to qualify for the playoffs in each of the last four seasons. And with the Jets currently 3-11 this year, 2010 seems like a distant memory.
The Jets will likely part ways with Ryan, as they’ll look to bolster what has been an anemic offense. And one lucky team will likely reap the benefit of having Ryan call the plays on defense as its DC next season.
Of all the coaches on this list, Ryan had the most factors working against him. The Florham Park circus environment makes it extremely difficult to win over the long haul. Until the team’s owner—Woody Johnson—makes hires with the ultimate goal of building a winning team, rather than selling PSLs and merchandise, the odds will be stacked against the Jets in their quest to succeed.
2) Jim Harbaugh
(San Francisco 49ers’ record during his tenure: 48-21-1)
Harbaugh led the 49ers to back-to-back-to-back NFC Championship game appearances and achieved a 5-3 postseason record during his first three seasons with the team, so why is he on this list? Well, there are a few reasons.
It’s no secret that Harbaugh and general manager Trent Baalke haven’t gotten along over the years. This dissension was likely overlooked due to the success the team was having. But the 49ers will miss the playoffs this year, and now the heat is on. This issue isn’t going away anytime soon, either.
Furthermore, it seems like Harbaugh may be losing the locker room. With his fiery attitude and in-your-face coaching style, Harbaugh is more suited to lead a young team that will respond to his methods. The 49ers players seem to be growing tired of his shtick, which is evidenced by their performance on the field.
Harbaugh has been linked to more jobs than any other current head coach in the league—with the University of Michigan, Oakland Raiders and even New York Jets reportedly having interest in his services—and that speaks volumes about his future.
1) Marc Trestman
(Chicago Bears’ record during his tenure: 13-17)
The former lame duck is now a dead man walking, according to a recent report from Dan Bernstein of WSCR in Chicago which states Trestman will likely be fired at season’s end.
And even if the report isn’t true, the fate of Trestman’s job is likely in the hands of Jimmy Clausen—whose teams are 1-15 in games he’s played in. That’s a harrowing thought.
The Bears took a chance in hiring Trestman. He may have had success as a head coach in the past, but all of that took place in the Canadian Football League. His experience in the NFL dates back a number of years, when he served as a position coach and (later) as the offensive coordinator for numerous teams.
Chicago has historically been known for its vaunted defense. But the unit has had a huge downgrade in its performance under Trestman, whose experience comes from the offensive side of the ball. And Trestman—a quarterback whisperer—was supposed to improve Jay Cutler’s mechanics and help get him back on track. But instead, the quarterback has actually regressed.
Numbers never lie. The Bears have ranked 29th and 30th in yards allowed per game since Trestman took over for Lovie Smith, and 31st and 32nd in points allowed per game. Trestman doesn’t seem to be getting the most out of his players, especially on defense. The effort simply isn’t there, which is a stark contrast to when Smith was calling the shots.
There is way too much talent on the Bears’ roster to have a 5-9 record and occupy last place in the NFC North. The team has lost six of its last eight games—with the only wins coming against the Buccaneers and Vikings. The Trestman experiment seemed like a good idea when the team first hired him, but his tenure with the team has been marred by failure. The Bears will likely pull the trigger and fire Trestman on Black Monday.