After nearly two weeks of DeflateGate talk, the big game is almost here. For the sixth time in 15 years, Tom Brady and Bill Belichick will look to win their fourth Super Bowl this Sunday night as the AFC Champion New England Patriots take on the NFC Champion and defending Super Bowl Champion Seattle Seahawks.
While the AFC Championship has been mainly focused on the deflated footballs that were used in the 1st half, it shouldn’t go unnoticed that in New England’s 45-7 win over the Indianapolis Colts, the Pats outscored the Colts 28-0 in the second half. LeGarrette Blount was the main offensive star in that contest, running the ball 30 times for 148 yards and scoring three touchdowns. Tom Brady also threw three touchdowns in New England’s win.
As far as the Seahawks go, they were down 19-7 to the Green Bay Packers with over five minutes to go in the NFC Championship Game. Somehow, Pete Carroll’s squad found their way back despite Russell Wilson throwing four interceptions. In overtime, Wilson would come thru with the game winning touchdown pass to Jermaine Kearse to send Seattle to their second straight Super Bowl.
When you look at this Seattle squad, their main focus on offense is running back Marshawn Lynch. Lynch, who gets a lot of attention for the little that he says to the media, ran for 1,306 yards and 13 touchdowns during the regular season. Against the Packers, Lynch had 157 yards on 25 carries and the go-ahead touchdown in the fourth quarter. As a team, Seattle led the NFL in rushing during the regular season (172.6 rushing yards per game).
On defense, Seattle still has the Legion Of Boom, even though one of their members from last year’s secondary, Brandon Browner, is now with the New England Patriots. The Seahawks’ pass defense was the best in the NFL, allowing 185.6 passing yards per game. Even with Browner gone, Seattle still has a very strong cornerback duo of Richard Sherman and Byron Mawell as well as a great safety duo (Earl Thomas III and Kam Chancellor).
These two teams played against each other in 2012 at CenturyLink Field in Seattle. In that contest, Russell Wilson threw two fourth quarter touchdowns, including a 46-yarder to Sidney Rice with 1:27 remaining to erase a 23-10 Patriots’ deficit. The final score was 24-23.
Before this Super Bowl kicks off Sunday night (6:30 PM ET, NBC), here are my keys to the Patriots-Seahawks matchup:
1. Bringing In Blount: Earlier, I talked about Blount’s impressive AFC Champioship performance, but it wasn’t as surprising considering he now has seven combined touchdowns in his last two games vs. Indy. He has a tougher task this Sunday going up against an elite defense in Seattle. With a Seahawks’ defense that knows how to rush the quarterback with only four guys, the Patriots need to have a balanced gameplan in place for this week.
With the exception of last Sunday, the highest amount of carries blount has had in a game with New England this season is 20 against the San Diego Chargers. Even though Belichick and Josh McDaniels like to use a variety of running backs such as Jonas Gray, Brandon Bolden, and Shane Vereen, Blount needs to get the bulk of the carries in this one. Against this Seattle defense, you have to try to run up the middle rather than go to the outside.
Another reason for the Patriots to provide a running attack is Seattle’s ability to take away the football. Seattle had a +9 turnover differential, which was fourth in the league (New England was +12 and tied for second). If Tom Brady has to throw the ball 50+ times in this contest, it will lead to turnovers. With the infamous interception to D’Qwell Jackson last Sunday, the Patriots’ quarterback has now thrown an interception in seven of his last nine starts.
2. Wrapping Up Wilson: For the second straight game, New England will go up against a mobile quarterback. This time it’s third year quarterback Russell Wilson. Wilson’s mobility out of the pocket requires that a defense stay disciplined in stopping the run and containing the big play. Wilson is seventh in the NFL in 20+ yard completions with 54 (ten more than Brady).
In terms of Wilson’s running ability, he is not a run-first quarterback. However, he has five or more rushing attempts in each of his last 13 games. The last time he ran it fewer than five times was October 12 against the Cowboys. He has ran for 25+ yards in 13 of his last 14 games.
For me, the key to containing Wilson is being able to cut off the angles with players such as Chandler Jones and Rob Ninkovich. Ninkovich had nine combined tackles in the two prior playoff games, but I was impressed with the way he played against Andrew Luck in staying between Luck and the receiver in roll-out situations.
If the Patriots can stop the run and force Wilson into third-and-long situations, he will have to go against a New England defense that has given up eight 40+ yard pass plays all season (Seattle has allowed six). Plus, Seattle has solid receiver in Kearse and Doug Baldwin, but they don’t have a T.Y. Hilton or Steve Smith that can stretch the field.
3. Stork Front And Center?: One of the advantages that I think the Seahawks have in this game is with their defensive line going up against the Patriots’ offensive line. New England did a great job two weeks ago in keeping Tom Brady upright. This Sunday, they will need one of their key offensive lineman back in the lineup.
Rookie center Bryan Stork should be available for this game after injuring his knee in the AFC Divisional Round against the Ravens. With Stork likely back, the Patriots can play the starting five that they want to on that O-Line and that one that gives them the most success in terms of pass protection. This week, they will have a tough task ahead of them against the Seattle pass rush.
Seattle was only 20th in the NFL in sacks during the regular season with 37, but they have two players on their team with 6.5 sacks or more (Michael Bennett and Bruce Irvin). To focus on Irvin, the third year linebacker from West Virginia has recorded a sack in three of their last five games. While Seattle doesn’t generate the sack amount you would expect, they were tied for fifth in the NFL in fumbles forced with 18. Ball security and protection will be at a premium come Sunday.
4. Can’t Get Enough Of Edelman: Since it’s the Super Bowl, I am going to add a fourth key to the game. I am interested to see whether or not Seattle puts Richard Sherman on Julian Edelman for this contest. So far, Edelman has been the most productive receiver in this postseason in terms of catches (17). Against the Colts, Edelman had nine catches for 98 yards and a touchdown. With Sherman having a shoulder injury from the NFC title, does Brady go after Sherman (arm injury) and Earl Thomas (elbow injury) early and often in this contest.
Another factor could be whether or not Seattle is able to take Gronkowski out of the game with a safety such as Kam Chancellor or with one of their members from their solid linebacking corps such as Bobby Wagner and K.J. Wright. For my X-Factor at wide receiver, I like the way Danny Amendola has been playing down the stretch. Amendola has 18 combined catches in his last four games, two of which were touchdowns in the Raven game. Can Amendola go under-the-radar in this game as a player that could pick up key first downs with his yards after the catch ability?
PREDICTION
Ever since this matchup came out two weeks ago, I have been going back-and-forth on who to pick. These are two teams that, in my opinion, are evenly matched. It’s safe to say that the NFL has the two best teams playing in this contest.
While I do think Marshawn Lynch will be able to get near 100 yards in this game, the Patriots’ defense is going to make a couple of plays with Revis and company. If they can turn any giveaways into touchdowns, unlike the Packers, they will have a great chance to win.
The key will be can Seattle take Gronkowski out of the game because Tom Brady likes to force the ball into Gronk on occasion. Just like the prior five Super Bowls with Belichick and Brady, I expect this game to be close. With both defenses being very strong in the fourth quarter this year, somebody has to make a play. This season, I think the Patriots have the slight edge in the secondary and at quarterback. Therefore, New England wins it late for their fourth Super Bowl championship in franchise history.
PATRIOTS 23 SEAHAWKS 20