The #13/#11 Buckeyes (7-1, 4-0) travel to East Lansing MI to play #7/#6 Michigan State (7-1, 4-0) in OSU’s third consecutive prime time game at 8:00 PM on Saturday. This game is the defacto B1G East Championship game and should be one of the best conference match-ups this season. Ohio State is coming off a dismantling of Illinois and Michigan State easily handled their idle week.
Overview:
The Spartans dropped their 2nd game of the season to Oregon (no shame it that) then have rolled out six consecutive wins. Their Strength of Schedule (58) is a bit better than OSU’s (67) due to having faced two ranked teams (Oregon and Nebraska), but they’ve also played their share of tomato cans.
Offensively, the Spartans are averaging 45.5 points and 515 yards per game. Defensively, they are giving up 279 yards and 20.3 points per game.
Meanwhile, Ohio State (SoS of 67) averages 45.6 points and 505 yards per game offensively. Defensively, OSU yields 19.9 points and 300 yards per game.
This is going to be an interesting match-up of the top two offensive and two of top six defensive teams in the conference.
Ohio State on Offense:
This is a tough, tough MSU defense, so the Buckeyes will have to be hitting on all execution and creativity cylinders to see significant success. One interesting wrinkle in the OSU offense was the increased touches (and results) from RB Curtis Samuel. For the rushing game, Samuel will provide the “edge” threat to complement Elliott’s “between the tackles” style, although EZE has been known to turn the corner a time or two.
There seems to be enough versatility in the Buckeye passing game to spread the field horizontally with Wilson/Marshall and vertically with Spencer/Thomas.
The other intriguing wrinkle is “who does what” at quarterback for Ohio State. The Illinois game showed an intriguing 2nd half of capabilities of “Wildcat” Marshall and Cardale Jones’ running and passing.
With dicey weather conditions forecast, this will be a good test for Sean Nuernberger. His performance this season is slightly better than the MSU unit, so an “extra” FG may come in handy. I’m also comfortable that OSU’s Cam Johnston can come up with a punt or two that pins MSU deep or flips the field in favor of the Buckeyes.
Ohio State on Defense:
The Spartan offense runs through Ohio native quarterback Connor Cook. To this point his numbers are similar to JT Barrett, and like Barrett, he’s had some terrific performance and some “meh” games. The one thing the MSU offensive line does well is to protect Cook. He’s only been sacked 5 times this season, best in the Conference and 3rd in the country.
The other thing their O-line does well is block for RB Jeremy Langford. he currently sits 5th in the B1G at 105 yards per game, at 5.25 YPC, on 20 carrier per game.
OSU’s secondary need to be on High Alert for the B1G’s leading receiver (111 YPG) in WR Tony Lippett. Lippett averages 21.2 YPR on a bit more than 5 receptions per game.
Stats courtesy of www.cfbstats.com
Wrapping Up:
So, how does this shake out? The line on this game (at time of article) is Ohio State at +3 1/2. Statistically, these teams are about as close as can be. This could be a low scoring game with a special teams play, or a turnover, or an instance of broken secondary coverage providing a difference to the team that takes advantage of it.
The weather forecast for East Lansing is daytime high of 41 degrees (colder at game time, obviously), 10 mph winds and a 60% chance of precipitation (rain/snow). In short, a miserable night for offenses.
The game is scheduled for an 8:00 PM EST kickoff. Television coverage is provided by ABC, check local listings. We’re going to run the in-game chat, beginning approximately 30 minutes before kickoff. No need to check local listings, we’ll be here. We look forward to seeing you.