The Winner of the Bartolo Colon Trade, 13 Years Later

Happy Anniversary everyone! Be honest, you forgot again, didn’t you? Today is the 13th anniversary of the date most consider to be the end of the 1990’s Indians and the beginning of the reconstruction project that culminated in a near World Series appearance in 2007. That’s right, the Bartolo Colon trade happened exactly 13 years ago today.

Normally, things that happened over a decade ago would be considered old news, but in this strange case, the “veteran” pitcher who was traded away from the Indians with a year and a half of team control left is still plugging away in the Majors as a 42 year old with the Mets. In addition, outside of the two throw ins for the deal, everyone else is still active in baseball with the closest to retirement being the youngest of the group.

To start, we can look at who actually won the original deal. The above chart shows how each player involved in the deal played during their years of team control (this means three years of pre-arbitration and three years of arbitration, not including extensions). While Cliff Lee and Grady Sizemore each signed extensions to stay in Cleveland longer and Brandon Phillips and Bartolo Colon were both traded before the end of their years of control, the numbers show how each player performed regardless of future moves.

Here, there is no question that the Indians won the trade. They weren’t going to the play-offs in 2002 no matter what, so losing Colon’s 2.4 WAR for the second half of 2002 wasn’t a big deal, even if they had only received Lee and Phillips in return. Of course, the biggest windfall was Sizemore. By the time he was 26, Sizemore was a three time All-Star, two time Gold Glover with 129 home runs and 130 steals. It was largely the gain of Sizemore for Colon that lead to the Indians trades of the future including C.C. Sabathia to the Brewers (where they repeated their success by gaining Michael Brantley) and Lee to the Phillies (again a success thanks to Carlos Carrasco).

What is most interesting about this trade is the superstar caliber of the players involved. Lee, Phillips and Sizemore were all minor leaguers yet to make their MLB debuts, yet all became All-Stars (Lee five times, Phillips three, Sizemore three) in addition to six Gold Gloves, two Silver Sluggers and a Cy Young between them. On the other side, Colon went to two more All-Star games and won a Cy Young for himself. While it was a big deal at the time, no one had any idea how great the players involved would eventually be.

Seeing how great these players have been over the long term is even more impressive. The above show the numbers for each player after the trade was completed (only Colon’s 22.8 WAR from 1997 through 2002 is excluded from the pivotal players in question). Of particular interest when comparing the group is how front loaded Sizemore’s career was compared to how back loaded those of Phillips and Lee have been. Injuries have affected both Sizemore and Lee in recent seasons and from 2010 on, Sizemore has actually had a negative value (he was recently cut by the Phillies and has yet to sign with another franchise) while Lee missed most of 2014 and all of 2015.

Colon himself dealt with some injury issues at points in his career, in particular missing all of 2010, but after receiving stem cell injections in his elbow, has come back to be nearly as dominant as he was in his mid-20’s in the late 1990’s. In 2011 with the Yankees and 2012 with the Athletics, Colon earned a WAR of over 2.0 and in 2013, still with Oakland, he had a resurgence with a 5.0 WAR and an All-Star appearance. This earned him a two year, $20M free agent deal with the Mets, the most he has earned as a starter since his four year $51M deal signed with Los Angeles.

There is no question that all these players have passed their prime, but even into their mid-30’s, Phillips and Lee remain solid performers that would be welcome on any team. Phillips in particular deserves commendation as he is currently having a great come back campaign for the Reds after a sub-par 2014. He is currently batting .295 with eight steals (more than his last two years combined) and 51 runs created (runs+RBI-HR), one of few positive points on a disappointing Cincinnati squad. He hasn’t won a Gold Glove since taking his fourth in 2013, but remains among the best second basemen in baseball with a 3.4 UZR/150.

At the moment, Phillips is signed through 2017, but Lee, Colon and Sizemore are all free agents at the end of the year. Given that Colon is finally starting to show his age with a 4.81 ERA in 14 starts, he could decide to retire, but since he has been able to average 177 innings per full season since coming back from injury in 2011, he will almost certainly be able to find another buyer for 2016 if he wants to continue his career through his 43rd birthday (next May 24th). Sizemore is also likely to retire, but given his 2.89 ERA and 739 strike outs in 747.2 innings since 2011, Lee will most likely continue his career for at least a few more seasons if he can return healthy in 2016.

The Indians were the clear winners of the original trade back in 2002 and that was known by 2007 and expounded upon with Lee’s Cy Young in 2008, but there were other winners as well. The Reds won by snaring Phillips early in his career when disagreements with manager Eric Wedge pushed him out of Cleveland. By waiting until the he became a free agent, the Angels were able to get some of the best years out of Colon (including his Cy Young season) without giving up the prospect load that the Expos paid. The Indians did get the most of Sizemore and Lee, but that had to do as much with the long term extensions they signed as the initial trade. It took Lee awhile to become the pitcher he is today and while he did have multiple great seasons with Cleveland, he has been even better during his two stints with the Phillies.

Rarely does a trade effect teams more than a decade after it takes place (excluding ripples like subsequent deals) yet this one, possibly the most important trade in Indians history (from the positive side, so not considering the travesty of Rocky Colavito for Harvey Kuenn) is still going strong and could continue, through Lee and Phillips for many years to come.