So much of what makes football teams successful is how well they manage the salary cap. When making NFL betting predictions, it’s important to think about which teams are spending their cap money wisely and which teams are overspending. Here are the five most overpaid offensive players in the NFL.
No. 5: Giovani Bernard
Giovani Bernard signed a three-year, $15.5 million contract extension in June. His average salary of $5.16 million a year ranks him 10th among running backs.
With his ability to catch the ball, Bernard is a handy part of the Bengals offense. Unlike the nine backs making more than him per year, however, Bernard hasn’t shown that he has the ability to carry the load as the lead running back, however obsolete that role may be in the NFL.
Bernard’s career-high 730 rushing yards ranked him 23rd in the NFL last season. His 49 receptions were ninth among running backs, and he scored just two touchdowns, both on the ground.
Bernard currently shares the Bengals’ running back duties with Jeremy Hill, and he’s getting more in that role than anyone else in the NFL.
No. 4: Ryan Tannehill
This is the age of the $20 million quarterback. If a team has a franchise quarterback who makes winning the Super Bowl realistic, it’s going to cost at least $20 million a year.
All 11 quarterbacks averaging $20 million a year have at least led their teams to a conference championship game. Three quarterbacks, Kirk Cousins, Ryan Tannehill and Colin Kaepernick, are behind the velvet ropes waiting for the bouncer to let them into the exclusive $20 million club.
Cousins will earn $19,953,000 this year because the Redskins are using the franchise tag on him. Before signing him to a long-term deal, they want to see if Cousins can do for a full season what he did in the last 10 games of 2015 when he threw 23 touchdowns and three interceptions. They’re doing what they have to do so they are excused from overpaying him.
Kaepernick is making $19 million a year. His career has hit the skids, but he’s been to a Super Bowl. He’s being paid for what he’s accomplished.
Tannehill? He’s earning $19,250,000 per year but has had no winning seasons (29-35 record as a starter), his career passer rating is a lackluster 85.2 and he’s only 19th among active quarterbacks with 6.9 yards per pass attempt.
Unless new head coach Adam Gase can work the same magic with Tannehill that he did with Jay Culter in Chicago, the Dolphins will keep wasting their money.
No. 3: Andrew Luck
If Andrew Luck happens to have dinner with another current or former NFL player, he’s buying.
The six-year, $140 million contract that Luck signed this offseason makes him the highest-paid player in the NFL. He leads all quarterbacks with an average salary of $24.6 million. The next five quarterbacks on the list, Joe Flacco, Aaron Rodgers, Russell Wilson, Ben Roethlisberger and Eli Manning, all have won Super Bowls. Luck hasn’t even played in a Super Bowl.
It might seem trendy to dump on Luck for all the money he’s making following his injury-riddled 2015 season, but even his entire body of work shows why he’s overpaid.
Luck took the Colts one step further in the playoffs every year between 2012 and 2014. He led the NFL with 40 touchdown passes in 2014, but he was also sixth in the league with 16 interceptions. His career passer rating is a pedestrian 85.0 and his 55 career interceptions are more than Ryan Tannehill and Sam Bradford. His interception percentage is also higher than those two middling quarterbacks.
If Luck ultimately bring Indianapolis the same number of championships as Peyton Manning, one, $140 million will be money well spent.
No. 2: Trent Williams, LT, Redskins
Trent Williams signed a five-year contract extension before the 2015 season that made him the highest-paid left tackle in the NFL in 2015 with an average annual salary of $13.6 million.
He wasn’t the best left tackle in the NFL, however, even if he was a decent one. The Redskins allowed just 27 sacks in 2015, fourth-fewest in the NFL. However, Kirk Cousins was sacked six times in their 35-18 playoff loss to the Packers. According to Pro Football Focus, Williams was responsible for two of those sacks. PFF also labeled Williams’ run-blocking as “average” as the Redskins ran for 3.7 yards per carry, 28th in the league.
Williams’ average annual salary among left tackles will be second to the Saints’ Terron Armstead in 2016. Unless Williams improves his play, however, he’ll still be overpaid.
No. 1: Any wide receiver making more than Antonio Brown
If this were a list of underpaid offensive players, Antonio Brown would be No. 1.
Brown set an NFL record for catches in a two-year span with 265 in 2014 (129) and 2015 (136). He owns the second- and fourth-highest single-season reception totals in NFL history. The only other player with two season in the top 10 is Wes Welker at sixth and seventh. Brown went 35 straight games at one point with at least give catches and 50 receiving yards, an NFL record.
Brown should be the highest-paid receiver in the NFL, but he’s not. And it’s not even close.