When the qualifying offer system was developed for MLB free agents, it was supposed to help players, but it’s done just the opposite. After first being put into play for the 2012 offseason, we didn’t even see a pending free agent accept one until last winter.
One would imagine the thought process for Matt Wieters, Brett Anderson and Colby Rasmus to break that cycle was rather simple: Get a guaranteed payday in the short-term while using another solid season to land a multi-year deal the following winter. Given each of their situations, this made sense.
But sometimes, the best-laid plans don’t work out. That’s what’s happened to these three players with the regular season’s final month upon us, forcing them to face free agency once again.
Matt Wieters, C, Baltimore Orioles
Recovering from Tommy John surgery forced Wieters to miss virtually the entire 2014 season, while also being limited to 75 games and 258 at-bats in 2015. He still managed to put up a rather respectable .267/.319/.422 line with eight home runs and 25 RBI, though.
Instead of waiting out the open market like most Scott Boras clients do, he accepted the $15.8 million qualifying offer from Baltimore.
With a lineup including fellow mashers like Manny Machado, Chris Davis, Adam Jones, Mark Trumbo and others, Wieters was expected to be a significant offensive piece. The Orioles are in the thick of a playoff race, but their backstop hasn’t had the kind of year he hoped for, slashing .244/.301/.405 through 365 at-bats.
Sure, his BABIP has taken a nosedive (.328 in ’15, .270 in ’16), but his 51 percent swing rate is the highest it’s ever been. Wieters has also seen a noticeable spike in fly balls (32 percent in ’15, 38.6 percent in ’16) without an increase in his homer/fly ball ratio (12.9 percent in ’15, 12.5 in ‘16).
While he got off to a slow start in April, a huge slump in July is suppressing his overall stats:
Wieters could do himself a huge favor by finishing September as strong as he’s started it, especially since he’s not making up the difference behind the plate. MLB Trade Rumors notes he’s grading out as a below-average pitch framer and blocker this year.
One of the few things going for Wieters is his competition at catcher this winter. The only other pending free agent he’ll need to think about is Wilson Ramos, who’s having a career year at the best possible time.
Brett Anderson, SP, Los Angeles Dodgers
Anderson went from one of his best big-league seasons in 2015 to possibly his most frustrating one in 2016.
When healthy, the southpaw profiles as a decent back-end of the rotation arm. He delivered upon that promise in his first year with the Dodgers, racking up a career high in innings pitched (180.1) and starts (31) on the way to a 10-9 record with a 3.69 ERA, 1.33 WHIP and 116 strikeouts.
Instead of dealing with a deep starting pitcher market last winter that included David Price, Zack Greinke and Johnny Cueto – among others – he understandably decided to take the qualifying offer. Since debuting with the Oakland Athletics in 2009, he’s only started 20 or more games twice (2009 and 2015). If he wanted to get a multi-year deal to his liking, it was necessary to back up a solid ’15 campaign with another one.
Instead of fortifying the back-end of Los Angeles’ rotation this year, he’s spent most of his time on the disabled list – first recovering from back surgery and most recently with a blister issue. And when he did take the mound, it wasn’t pretty.
Anderson started two games in August, posting an unsightly 24.75 ERA and 4.25 WHIP through just four innings of work. So, the Dodgers have paid nearly $4 million per inning from him this year.
Not even Los Angeles should consider extending another qualifying offer (if it still exists by then) and the southpaw would likely be forced to take another one-year flyer to prove his health.
Colby Rasmus, OF, Houston Astros
By the end of April, Rasmus looked like a genius for accepting the qualifying offer. He hit .263/.400/.579 with seven homers and 19 RBI through 76 at-bats and was one of the few bright spots for the Astros during their slow start.
The biggest change was his plate discipline – after posting a 9.7 percent walk rate in 2015, he drew a walk 18.9 percent of the time in April. That’s not sustainable, but he’s been trending below last year’s overall number since. Although his walk rate is 9.9 percent this year, his O-Swing% is up (27.1 percent in ’15, 28.6 percent in ’16) while his O-Contact% has decreased (52.4 percent in ’15, 44.2 percent in ’16). That’s no good.
A .068/.104/.192 line with three homers and 10 RBI through 22 games played in July and August didn’t help, either.
Has Rasmus performed far off his career norms? Outside of the .368 slugging percentage, not really. He typically doesn’t hit for a high average, but can pop 20 homers and 20 doubles in a season. These results just feel more disappointing because of his great start that’s now a distant memory.
Unless he goes on an absolute tear to finish the year, it’s doubtful he’ll receive the qualifying offer once again. However, with the free agent market looking the way it is, he should find somewhere to catch on…just not for the kind of money he was anticipating on getting.
MLB’s collective bargaining agreement is set to expire this winter and both sides are currently working toward a resolution so we won’t have to suffer through a work stoppage. If the qualifying offer gets eliminated with the next agreement, there won’t be any players shedding a tear.
Which of these three players will feel the effects of a lackluster season in their next contract the least?
All statistics courtesy of Baseball-Reference. All advanced statistics courtesy of FanGraphs.
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