For a team that entered the 2016 MLB All-Star break with a 51-36 record, it can be viewed as disappointing to go 15-15 since returning to action like the Baltimore Orioles have. However, manager Buck Showalter and his coaching staff should actually be viewing it as progress based on how they got there.
One of baseball’s best and one of baseball’s worst
Throughout the 2016 season, Baltimore has proved a lot of people wrong (including myself). Sure, they started the year on a nine-game winning streak, but we all know fast starts don’t always produce playoff-caliber teams once the calendar flips to August and September.
For standing the test of time during the first three-and-a-half months, the organization can thank its offense and bullpen, while shaking its head at the rotation.
With usual suspects like Manny Machado, Adam Jones and Chris Davis in the everyday lineup, we knew this team was going to mash. It got even better when players like Jonathan Schoop and Mark Trumbo outperformed preseason expectations. In 88 games played, this squad collectively hit .272/.333/.467 with 137 home runs and 442 runs scored, all ranking within the 10 best clubs in baseball.
Many loved watching the Orioles hit, but very few enjoyed watching them pitch – at the beginning of games, at least. Starters combined to post a 29-28 record in the first half with a 5.15 ERA, which was third worst in the majors. They also didn’t last very long, with their 470 innings pitched ranking last out of 30 teams.
Anchored by Brad Brach and Zach Britton, the bullpen produced the first half’s fourth-best ERA (3.12), but they also threw 303 innings during that time, fifth most among big-league bullpens. Showalter has built a solid reputation when it comes to managing relievers, but there had to be concern about overworking them…especially with hopes of playing October baseball.
Most important acquisition came from within
As the August 1 non-waiver trade deadline approached, Baltimore’s biggest need was rather obvious. Unfortunately for anyone in need of a frontline starter, there weren’t many to seriously pursue, which is why Wade Miley was the organization’s biggest external acquisition.
Given the market and the Orioles’ farm system, this was a solid move because Miley’s best quality is eating innings every five days. Baltimore desperately needed that, but it’s not like someone with an ERA north of 5.00 since the start of 2015 is going to be the difference maker in a pennant race (he has a 7.04 ERA in 15.1 innings since getting traded).
That’s why moving 23-year-old Dylan Bundy from the bullpen to the starting rotation was the most impactful – and really, the only – move they could’ve made to get better. It doesn’t come without risk because of Bundy’s injury history, but he’s impressed everyone by posting a 4-2 record with a 2.76 ERA, 0.86 WHIP and 36 strikeouts in 32.2 innings of work since making the switch.
Since the All-Star break, roster production has completely changed
Prior to the All-Star break, Baltimore had five pitchers make at least 10 starts, with only one posting an ERA under 4.00 (Chris Tillman). Of the five hurlers who have started three or more games since the All-Star break, three have an ERA under 4.00 and four have an ERA under 5.00.
The rotation has thrown 170.2 second-half innings, which ranks 11th in baseball. Not only are they getting more length from starters, but they’re getting the added bonus of better overall performance – their 3.90 ERA ranks 10th, which is a dramatic improvement from that 5.15 mark in the first half.
Talk about a tale of two seasons so far, right?
Coincidentally enough, it’s been the offense that’s dragged the Orioles down upon resuming their push toward the playoffs. Their .233/.289/.387 cumulative triple slash ranks within the six worst teams in the majors, and the 107 runs they’ve scored isn’t much more than the offensively challenged Chicago White Sox and New York Mets, along with the struggling San Francisco Giants.
How did this happen? Well, as we know with a 162-game season, there will be peaks and valleys, and the Orioles’ offense is in a valley. Their official team site makes it easy to see that Machado is actually human at the moment, Schoop and Trumbo have cooled off significantly and Davis isn’t having a stellar year after signing that huge contract.
Furthermore, Steve Pearce was acquired prior to the trade deadline to bolster the offense instead of overpaying for more pitching help, but he’s hitting just .171/.250/.273 in his return. It’s been a frustrating stretch for Baltimore, but it could be much worse and they have to feel a little encouraged by the improved rotation production.
The real test comes down the stretch
Judging from what the Orioles’ offense did in the first half of 2016, we can assume this month-long slump will soon come to an end. When it does, they can only hope the rotation will continue this upward trend. The AL East has turned into a three-horse race, currently looking like the following:
The AL Wild Card race also heavily favors the East:
All games are important, but ones against the Boston Red Sox and Toronto Blue Jays will be the most important with a total of 15 more chances for Baltimore to directly control its destiny (nine vs. Boston, six vs. Toronto). These teams have a lot of interesting similarities, as they each can hit, but have all had their struggles since the All-Star break, as The Boston Globe’s Pete Abraham pointed out last week:
Since the All-Star break:
Toronto: .222/.303/.390
Baltimore: .225/.280/.371
Boston: .251/.317/.428So it’s not just your team, folks.
— Pete Abraham (@PeteAbe) August 11, 2016
They’ve also each had their issues on the mound, whether it’s in the rotation or in the bullpen. If the Orioles plan on reaching the postseason for the third time since 2012, they’ll have to keep opposing bats quiet enough as their offense performs up to expectation.
Through the first 88 games, that didn’t seem possible, but the chances of this happening have skyrocketed since. Now, they just need the offense to get back into a groove to put it all together. Who would’ve thought hitting would be the bigger problem for Baltimore at this particular moment?
That’s how baseball goes, and while it’s likely a point of concern, Showalter probably doesn’t mind having that problem if his rotation doesn’t give him massive headaches on a nightly basis anymore.
Statistics courtesy of Baseball-Reference. Advanced statistics courtesy of FanGraphs.
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