The old adage in baseball is you can never have enough pitching. While every team can vouch for that, the two organizations currently feeling this the most are the New York Mets and Cleveland Indians.
Heading into 2016, both squads had one clear strength: a solid starting rotation expected to be one of the best in baseball. By solely looking at the cumulative statistics – and paying no mind to who contributed – New York and Cleveland received the kind of production necessary to be on the verge of a playoff berth (via FanGraphs):
When it comes to fWAR production, the Mets rank second in baseball, while the Indians are second in the American League.
But with October on the horizon, they’ll each be forced to use a much different group than those who toed the line on Opening Day. With a seven-game lead in the American League Central, the Indians are all but assured a spot in the postseason. The Mets still have some work to do with just a one-game cushion in the National League Wild Card race, though.
Each situation is distinctly different, but the Mets and Indians will have a similarly steep hill to climb once the regular season comes to a close, and there seems to be quite a few naysayers.
New York Mets
On August 19, the Mets were technically still in the playoff hunt. “Technically” was putting it nicely. Following an 8-1 loss to the San Francisco Giants, New York fell to 60-62 and 5.5 games out of the final Wild Card spot.
Sure, they had just gotten Yoenis Cespedes and Asdrubal Cabrera back from the disabled list, but Terry Collins’ everyday lineup was decimated and the starting rotation was a mess. It got worse from there, as Bartolo Colon has been the only hurler to not miss a start this season.
Despite those long odds, the Amazins have gone 20-8 since then and are basically in control of their own destiny. It’s especially interesting to see the roller coaster ride this year has been based FanGraphs’ playoff odds:
It's been quite a ride for the #Mets' playoff odds over the last four months. (cc:@fangraphs) #LGM pic.twitter.com/odyyMislYv
— Matt Musico (@mmusico8) September 18, 2016
None of this would’ve been possible without Seth Lugo and Robert Gsellman. Check out what they’ve accomplished in just 80 combined innings thus far:
However, Zachary Rymer of Bleacher Report recently made the proclamation that New York’s chances at making another deep postseason run are over.
Why? Because Jacob deGrom is done for the year, Matt Harvey is out, Zack Wheeler never came back and Steven Matz’s contributions are undetermined. Plus, if they do reach October, New York is at a huge disadvantage when matched up against opposing rotations.
Are the odds stacked against the Mets? Yes, but it’s silly to completely dismiss them. Virtually everyone did that a month ago, and now look at them. And yes, I’m aware of their strength of schedule advantage down the stretch, but they’re still big league teams and they still have to actually beat them (which they weren’t doing prior to this run).
The unlikely performances from Lugo and Gsellman should tell us two things at this point:
- Maybe New York’s farm system was a little deeper than we thought.
- Las Vegas 51s pitching coach Frank Viola has done a great job of getting these guys prepared for the next level.
Cleveland Indians
While Terry Francona’s club feels the Mets’ pain at this particular juncture, it didn’t happen in the same way.
The offense hasn’t felt the pain of not having Michael Brantley basically all year because guys like Mike Napoli, Jose Ramirez and Tyler Naquin stepped up more than expected. Cleveland really caught fire because of its starting rotation, which they planned on riding into October until everyone started getting hurt.
After an All-Star – and Cy Young caliber – first half, Danny Salazar struggled to a 7.44 ERA in 32.2 second-half innings and may not return from the DL in time to contribute. On the heels of that, Carlos Carrasco has also been lost for the year after suffering a non-displaced fracture of a bone in his right hand.
So now, the Indians are forced to think about a postseason rotation including Corey Kluber, Trevor Bauer, Josh Tomlin and Mike Clevinger. It doesn’t give them many options based how most of this group has performed throughout 2016:
Sources: Cleveland discussing three-man postseason rotation with Kluber and Bauer on short rest, Tomlin/Clevinger piggyback or alternating.
— Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) September 19, 2016
Bauer has been inconsistent throughout his career. He also didn’t instill much confidence in his most recent start against the Detroit Tigers by allowing six earned runs on 10 hits, two walks, three hit batsmen and five strikeouts in 5.2 innings.
Cleveland Plain Dealer beat writer Paul Hoynes made a similar proclamation to what Rymer did about the Mets, saying the Indians’ playoff journey was over before it even started. A number of players took exception, which isn’t shocking, but now they must find a way to prove him wrong. Not too long ago, they were a force to be reckoned with while preparing to send some permutation of Kluber, Salazar and Carrasco in Games 1, 2 and 3.
Now, Kluber remains as the only sure thing.
Are the Mets and Indians about to embark on an impossible fight? Logic says so, but we all know what can happen during the month of October. Both teams still have to officially punch their tickets before thinking about how to handle this, but they’re certainly up for the challenge. Are they going to battle with the group they anticipated on having back in April? Not even close, but every postseason contender is dealing with that — just some are dealing with it more than others.
It’s ironic because Cleveland was drawing some comparisons to the 2015 Mets before this season started because of the similarities in roster construction, and they’re once again being lumped together. Now it’s just on the other end of the spectrum with analysts proclaiming they have no chance before even trying.
At the end of the day, they could be right, but this is why they play the game. You can’t win if you don’t play, and having slim chances at advancing deep into the postseason is better than watching them at home on the couch.
The Mets and Indians know that. All they want is a chance to prove people wrong, and they’re about two weeks away from giving it their best shot.
Statistics courtesy of Baseball-Reference. Advanced statistics courtesy of FanGraphs.
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