MLB players enter a new year with the best intentions, but this is baseball, and things don’t always go exactly as planned. In fact, they almost never do.
To have a successful regular season and a shot at clinching a playoff berth, managers need production from every corner of their respective rosters. It also helps to get unexpected sources of production, as we touched upon a couple weeks ago.
The following five players have recently shown potential to be a significant contributor at the big-league level. Each of them were expected to be an important piece in 2016, but that didn’t happen. Now, they’ll be looking ahead to 2017 for another opportunity to solidify themselves in the big leagues.
Ketel Marte, SS, Seattle Mariners
In just 57 games played as a rookie, Marte amassed a .283/.351/.402 triple slash with 25 runs scored. His performance was so encouraging that Mariners general manager Jerry Dipoto felt comfortable trading incumbent shortstop, Brad Miller, to the Tampa Bay Rays last winter.
Instead of taking another step forward, he’s endured a rough age-22 campaign in the Pacific Northwest, slashing .260/.289/.328 through 408 at-bats. When looking at advanced statistics, BABIP could be part of the issue (.330 in ’15, .269 in ’16), but it’s mainly because he’s swinging at bad pitches more often than his rookie campaign.
Marte’s walk rate has shrunk from 9.7 percent to 3.9 percent, and that’s a result of his Swing% increasing nearly five percentage points (including an increase of six percentage points on balls out of the strike zone).
Time to panic? Not yet – it’ll be interesting to see what kind of changes he makes to his plate approach next year, though.
Luis Severino, SP, New York Yankees
With or without Severino’s impressive 2015, the Yankees’ starting rotation entered 2016 with plenty of questions. It only got worse once the young right-hander couldn’t replicate the 2.89 ERA and 1.20 WHIP he posted through his first 62.1 MLB innings.
This season was supposed to be a stepping-stone in his development toward being a front-end starter. Instead, he was forced to spend time in Triple-A and has never seen his 2016 ERA dip below 5.40. His BB/9 rate hasn’t spiked from last year, though – it’s actually gone down (3.18 in ’15, 2.85 in ’16).
So, what’s the problem? It was his control, but missing spots within the strike zone, as Jason Cohen of Pinstripe Alley pointed out back in May. Severino has been successful as a reliever since getting called up this month (2-0, 0.60 ERA, 0.93 WHIP, 15 Ks in 15 IP), but New York would like him to be the crucial rotation piece they initially thought he’d be.
Instead of entering 2017 with his spot in the rotation solidified, he’ll have to once again prove he belongs, as Joel Sherman of the New York Post details.
Yan Gomes, C, Cleveland Indians
Watching the Indians inching closer to an AL Central title is impressive when realizing Michael Brantley has only played 11 games. It’s even more impressive upon realizing Cleveland’s catcher fWAR ranks dead last in baseball at -0.7.
The lack of production from Gomes is a big reason why they’re sitting in the cellar with regard to this metric. Cleveland hoped the 28-year-old would bounce back from the subpar .659 OPS he posted in 2015, but it only got worse. He slashed .165/.198/.313 with eight homers and 32 RBI in 249 at-bats before his season was declared finished because of an injury suffered during rehab.
With a 3.4 percent BB rate, it’s obvious he’s swinging too often, but it’s crazy upon looking at the statistics. Check out the difference between 2014 (when he won a Silver Slugger award) and the two seasons that followed:
Swinging a ton more and not making a ton more contact is a problem. It’s also interesting to note that his infield popup rate has increased in each of the last three years: 9.6 percent in 2014, 11.3 percent in 2015 and 14.6 percent in 2016.
Jose Berrios, SP, Minnesota Twins
The Twins haven’t drafted and developed a starting pitcher into a capable starter since Matt Garza was drafted in 2005, as La Velle Neal of the Star Tribune touched upon earlier this season.
That’s why people were excited about Berrios making his MLB debut. He entered 2016 as a consensus top-30 prospect in pro baseball and there were high expectations for him to break this homegrown pitcher drought.
Can he still do that? Of course, but starting his big-league career with a 2-7 record, 8.88 ERA and 1.99 WHIP over 48.2 innings doesn’t help build confidence. How could he be so good in the minors (2.89 career ERA) and get rave reports from evaluators while opposing MLB hitters have posted a .989 OPS against him?
Parker Hageman of Twins Daily points out that the right-hander is tipping his pitches – specifically his changeup, which is supposed to be his biggest weapon. Suddenly, it makes sense as to why opposing batters are hitting .375 against his changeup in 2016.
Travis d’Arnaud, C, New York Mets
In the span of one season, d’Arnaud has gone from budding catcher of the future to being replaced on a regular basis by Rene Rivera. Not what he or the Mets were looking for.
One of the biggest knocks on the backstop is he can’t stay healthy. He’ll play in less than 100 games for the second consecutive season, but his power evaporating has been even more frustrating. D’Arnaud posted an .825 OPS last year with 14 doubles and 12 homers in 239 at-bats. Through 240 at-bats this season, he owns a dreadful .624 OPS with six doubles and four homers. It’s even worse when hitting with runners in scoring position: a .118/.193/.188 line with no extra-base hits and eight RBI in 51 at-bats.
D’Arnaud’s swing has looked long for a while and it’s hard to deny the results: his line-drive rate has decreased from 21.4 percent in ’15 to 16.6 percent in ’16. Meanwhile, his infield fly-ball rate has gone from 16.3 percent last season to 20 percent this year.
Rivera isn’t an offensive juggernaut, but he’s provided timely offense and an ability to help control the running game from behind the plate (has thrown out 31 percent of runners, while d’Arnaud is throwing out 21.9 percent).
Instead of entering his age-28 season cemented as New York’s catcher for the foreseeable future, he’ll first have to prove he’s worthy of getting consistent playing time again. If he’s still with the organization.
Which of these young MLB players has the most to prove in 2017 after a lackluster 2016?
Statistics courtesy of Baseball-Reference. Advanced statistics courtesy of FanGraphs unless otherwise noted.
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