Between the regular season and the playoffs, there’s still about two months of baseball left to enjoy, but winter is approaching faster than we realize. It stinks to think about life without baseball (even for a relatively short period of time), but that also means the Hot Stove is coming to keep us occupied.
As we’ve been talking about for quite a while, this winter’s free agent class is less inspiring than others in recent memory. That doesn’t mean there still won’t be a bunch of players signing life-changing contracts along the way, though. Some impending free agents have hurt their stock this year, but the following six hitters have elevated theirs as much as possible over the past five months, especially with less competition than normal from others who will soon need a new home for 2017.
Wilson Ramos, C, Washington Nationals
Having the talent was never a question for Ramos. Whether or not he could harness that talent and turn it into legitimate production was up in the air, though. It came to head in 2015 when he accumulated a career-high 475 at-bats and struggled to a .229/.258/.358 triple slash with 15 home runs, 68 RBI and 101 strikeouts.
Ramos’ walk-rate deteriorated all the way down to 4.2 percent and there wasn’t much to get excited about. Despite that, he’s turned his career around in 2016, and at precisely the right time. He’s hitting .313/.361/.511 with 20 homers and 70 RBI in 409 at-bats while watching his walk-rate increase (7 percent) and his strikeout rate decrease (13 percent) siginificantly.
Getting Lasik surgery before the season has helped, that’s for sure. Looking ahead to free agency, the biggest competition he’ll have at catcher is Matt Wieters, who is having one of the worst years of his career.
Edwin Encarnacion, 1B/DH, Toronto Blue Jays
This is around the time when Toronto’s front office wishes they could’ve met in the middle with Encanacion’s camp prior to 2016 getting underway. The slugger wanted a four- or five-year deal, but the team guaranteed much less, according to Jon Heyman.
What has he done since contract talks broke off? Well, he’s hit .267/.360/.548 with 36 homers and a league-leading 106 RBI in 487 at-bats. It’s the fifth straight year he’s hit 30-plus home runs and the fourth time he’s surpassed the 100-RBI plateau as a Blue Jay. He’s provided consistently elite power numbers throughout his tenure north of the border, and is doing it this year while seeing less fastballs than ever before (52.8 percent in ’16, 56.6 percent for his career).
The Blue Jays will likely still have a chance to re-sign him, but he won’t come cheap. It’s tough for teams to commit four or five years to a designated hitter entering his age-34 season, but he’s put up enough eye-popping numbers that someone will pay the price.
Justin Turner, 3B, Los Angeles Dodgers
Turner is a perfect example of a late bloomer. From 2009-13 with the Baltimore Orioles and New York Mets, he slashed .260/.323/.361 in 841 at-bats. From 2014-16 with the Dodgers, he’s slashing a much different .297/.365/.496 in 1,123 at-bats.
There was concern about how he’d recover from offseason knee surgery last winter since it included a microfracture procedure, and he didn’t get off to the best of starts. He was hitting just .235/.335/.343 through the end of May, but has hit .292/.334/.595 since, including 21 of his 24 homers. He’s a little older than normal (31) to be in this position, but the lack of talent at the hot corner should allow him to receive some nice multi-year offers.
Yoenis Cespedes, OF, New York Mets
The biggest hitter in New York’s lineup recently made headlines with comments about his contract situation, saying he wanted to play out the final two seasons of a three-year, $75 million deal instead of opting out this winter.
When asked about it again later on, Cespedes then basically said this is why he has an agent, which is absolutely right. It’s not surprising to hear he wants to remain a Met—after all, he’s the king of New York. However, considering the weak free agent class we’re about to see, it’d be shocking if he didn’t re-enter the open market since his value can’t get much higher.
He’s well on his way to a second consecutive 30-homer campaign, while also flirting with a .300 batting average most of the year. The most encouraging improvement is his plate discipline. In 2015, Cespedes’ walk-rate stood at 4.9 percent, but that’s nearly doubled to 9.5 percent. A big reason why is he’s not chasing pitches out of the strike zone nearly as often as usual (34.1 percent O-swing rate, the lowest of his career).
Mark Trumbo, OF, Baltimore Orioles
We knew he couldn’t sustain the .337/.385/.573 triple slash he posted through 89 April at-bats, but Trumbo has kept the power coming. Here’s some perspective:
Mark Trumbo from 2014-15: 36 HRs, 125 RBI.
In '16: 40 HRs, 96 RBI.Hitting free agency at the right time. #Orioles https://t.co/KzCMXVuH3U
— Matt Musico (@mmusico8) August 29, 2016
Is it because his home park is the hitter-friendly Camden Yards? Not quite. He owns a .547 slugging percentage with 21 bombs at home and a .521 slugging percentage and 19 homers on the road. So, we can’t point to that as a reason for his first 30-plus homer performance since hitting 34 for the Los Angeles Angels in 2013.
He’s been a big part of Baltimore’s current playoff run, and has elevated his game when they need him most—Trumbo is slashing .324/.385/.676 in 210 at-bats with men on base, including a .975 OPS when they’re in scoring position.
Brandon Moss, 1B/OF, St. Louis Cardinals
If there’s one thing Moss is really good at, it’s hitting home runs. He’s done that quite frequently in 2016, as the first baseman/outfielder has knocked 25 balls over the fence in just 319 at-bats. His 30.1 percent strikeout rate is one of the highest of his career, but his 135 wRC+ is also one of the highest he’s produced as a big-leaguer.
It’s interesting to see that he’s swinging more often (49.6 percent in ’15, 50.5 percent in ’16) and missing a lot (16.1 percent swinging miss rate), but has been aided by a .311 BABIP. His presence has been huge for the Cardinals, who have dealt with their fair share of injuries this season. It wouldn’t be surprising to see him right back with the Redbirds next year, either.
Which one of these impending free agents helped improve their stock the most with winter on the horizon?
Statistic courtesy of Baseball-Reference. Advanced statistics courtesy of FanGraphs.
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