Is it possible for a pitcher to take home a Cy Young award despite missing nearly half a season? Judging from what Los Angeles Dodgers ace Clayton Kershaw did before he landed on the disabled list and how the rest of his competition has performed since, it sure is.
The southpaw hasn’t pitched since losing to the Pittsburgh Pirates on June 26, but it’s not outrageous to say he’s still the National League’s best pitcher. Despite spotting his competition about two months, he still leads the league in fWAR (5.5) and bWAR (4.8). The biggest question right now is whether or not he’ll return to a big-league mound before the regular season finishes.
The likelihood of that increased with some good news, as J.P. Hoornstra of the L.A. News Group reported on Tuesday. Kershaw escaped a 40-pitch bullpen unscathed and is scheduled for a 60-pitch simulated game later this week. As he continues ramping up, the final step before re-entering the Dodgers’ rotation will be one rehab start.
So, if Kershaw can return and be solid for three or four starts, is there a chance he wins his fourth Cy Young since 2011? That’s exactly what Joe Sheehan told Keith Law on ESPN’s Baseball Tonight podcast earlier this week, and it’s hard to disagree.
The award has basically been Kershaw’s to lose all season, with a big determination now being how many starts he can rack up upon getting activated off the DL. There’s still about a month left, which is plenty of time for other contenders to separate themselves from the pack by having a strong finish.
Here are seven NL pitchers who have a shot at preventing Kershaw from winning yet another Cy Young. It all depends on how the last month goes.
Kyle Hendricks, Chicago Cubs
The case for him: Can you guess who is currently leading the ERA title race since Kershaw no longer has enough innings to qualify?
If you guessed Hendricks (I mean, geez, I hope you did), you’d be right. He’s leading all of baseball with a 2.16 mark through 146 innings pitched and has a firm lead in hand, as Madison Bumgarner is currently in a distant second at 2.44. As good as Hendricks was in the first half (7-6 with a 2.55 ERA), he’s been even better in the second half (4-1 with a 1.33 ERA).
The case against him: The right-hander doesn’t fit that typical “dominant starting pitcher” profile.
Sure, he’s among the league leaders in WHIP and has thrown two complete games (one shutout), but he isn’t a big strikeout pitcher (127 Ks this year). He’d have to rack up a lot of wins to make up for that, which probably won’t happen since he’s sitting at 11 right now.
Madison Bumgarner, San Francisco Giants
The case for him: While his 12-8 record doesn’t show it, MadBum is having his best year as a big leaguer.
His 2.44 ERA is the lowest it’s ever been; he leads baseball in innings pitched (180.2) and is on pace for his sixth consecutive 200-inning campaign; he leads the league with four complete games and his 202 strikeouts currently rank third in the NL.
The case against him: Most of his dominance came in the first half.
If he didn’t throw a one-hit, 14-strikeout complete game gem in the final game before the All-Star break, Terry Collins would’ve probably chosen him to start the midsummer classic after going 10-4 with a 1.94 ERA and 0.96 WHIP. But since then, he’s been rather mortal, posting a 2-4 record with a 3.71 ERA and 1.26 WHIP in 51 innings.
Jake Arrieta, Chicago Cubs
The case for him: Well, he’s the reigning NL Cy Young award winner, so it only makes sense to consider him, right?
As much as we all know pitcher wins are overrated, they still mean something to voters. So, Arrieta’s NL-leading 16 wins (not to mention his 2.62 ERA) puts him toward the top of this heap. He also leads all NL pitchers with a .183 opponent batting average.
The case against him: Through the end of May, it looked like this would be a two-horse race between Kershaw and Arrieta.
Then, Kershaw went down in June and Arrieta began to struggle (3-2, 3.54 ERA, 1.36 WHIP that month), followed by bigger struggles in July (0-3, 4.88 ERA, 1.21 WHIP). He has righted the ship in August by going 4-0 with a 1.98 ERA in 27.1 innings, though. If he can do something close to that in September, he may be clearing mantle space for his second straight Cy Young.
Jose Fernandez, Miami Marlins
The case for him: Fernandez has been the horse manager Don Mattingly needs during Miami’s playoff push.
In his first full year following Tommy John surgery, he’s second in the National League with 204 strikeouts, leads all starters with a 12.96 K/9 rate and only Kershaw and Noah Syndergaard have a higher fWAR than the Cuban right-hander’s 4.9.
The case against him: While he’s looked strong, the goal to manage his innings could get in the way of making a dominant run in the season’s final month.
The 23-year-old has thrown 141.2 innings so far in 2016, and was recently skipped in the rotation to control his workload. Mattingly not only wants his ace available through the end of September, but into October if the Marlins clinch a Wild Card spot. With the goal to cap Fernandez at about 180 innings, the organization needs to be careful.
Max Scherzer, Washington Nationals
The case for him: His 13 wins may not stand out much, but Scherzer has nearly everything else working for him.
He’s right behind Bumgarner for the league lead in innings pitched (174), his 217 strikeouts are tops in the NL and that 0.96 WHIP shows he’s limiting baserunners better than his fellow starters. Plus, being the ace on a World Series contender always helps with the eye test.
The case against him: His 3.05 ERA is a little elevated compared to the rest of his competition.
That’s because Scherzer’s season got off to a rougher start than usual (4.35 ERA in April, 3.83 in May) and he’s spent most of the year bringing it down. June and July included a sub-2.00 ERA, but the righty is currently 2-1 with a 4.26 ERA in August. If he wants to become the latest hurler to win a Cy Young in both the AL and NL, a strong finish is necessary to overcome others, specifically Arrieta.
Noah Syndergaard, New York Mets
The case for him: Well, he’s the closest to Kershaw when it comes to fWAR (5.2).
Thor also boasts the highest fastball velocity among starters (98 mph) and has used a devastating slider to strike out 10.71 hitters per nine innings. Despite a 2.63 ERA, his 2.26 FIP leads all qualified National League starting pitchers.
The case against him: Like some of his competitors, a fair amount of Syndergaard’s domination came early in the season.
Throwing just 148 innings puts him at a slight disadvantage since others have thrown 20-30 more innings while being at least as effective. He’s dodged a handful of health scares, and has had a tough time putting hitters away lately. The only way he’ll seriously be considered at this point is if he uses that eight-inning, six-strikeout performance from Sunday night as a springboard to a huge run down the stretch.
Johnny Cueto, San Francisco Giants
The case for him: There’s a reason why Cueto was named the National League’s starting pitcher in the All-Star game — he had a tremendous first half.
He formed a lethal one-two punch at the top of San Francisco’s rotation with MadBum by going 13-1 with a 2.47 ERA, 1.00 WHIP and 115 strikeouts in 131.1 innings of work. And when it comes to qualified starting pitchers, only Fernandez and Syndergaard have produced a better fWAR than Cueto’s 4.1.
The case against him: Well, this has been a recurring theme, but Cueto’s dominance hasn’t continued in the second half.
The right-hander is just 1-2 with a 4.25 ERA and 1.37 WHIP since the All-Star break, and August has been his worst month of the year (4.44 ERA, 1.22 WHIP in 26.1 innings). His strong first half should be noted, but his drop-off in performance combined with a lack of strikeouts (152 in 173.2 innings pitched) compared to his competition means he has a steeper hill to climb than others.
With just about five weeks of regular season play left, anything can happen and there’s still plenty of time for one of these hurlers to emerge as a clear frontrunner. However, Kershaw remains in the conversation because nobody has been able to do that once he hit the DL. Since they allowed that to happen, they’ll have to deal with him potentially strengthening his case in September.
Statistics courtesy of Baseball-Reference. Advanced statistics courtesy of FanGraphs.
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