Quantifying Injury Impact on NHL Teams. CHIP or TMITT?

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The NHL recently announced they will soon provide advanced statistics such as Corsi and Fenwick as part of their NHL.com offerings. However, in this age of maturing hockey analytics, the metrics quantifying the impact of player injuries on a team are very frequently ignored.

CHIP (Cap Hit of Injured Player) and our TMITT metric (Time Missed Impact To Team) are arguably not on anyone’s radar. Yet. We compare them head to head here.

There are a myriad number of ways to measure a player’s value to their team. Which is best? The answer is that it depends on the player, their role, and their performance (past and future). How well do they score? Eat minutes? Hit? Stop pucks? Thankfully, we can measure the past.

The CHIP metric bases an injured player’s value to their team on their salary’s cap hit on the team’s books, and the duration of their injury. The belief is that the higher a player’s cap hit, the higher their value to the team. Each game a player is injured is quantified based on the cumulative amount of money that is ‘wasted’ as ‘lost’ cap hit for the team.

Is CHIP a flawed metric? Perhaps. It doesn’t account for the player’s role on the team. Also, General Managers and player agents decide a player’s cap hit based on the player’s past performance. Bad contracts exist.

In contrast, our TMITT metric bases a player’s value to their team on their average time on ice (ATOI) and the duration of their injury. The more a player is consistently used by their coach on the ice during each game, the higher their value to the team. However, just like bad contracts, bad coaches exist.

Regardless, coaches tend to give better players more ice time. A higher TMITT number means a larger impact of a player’s injury to the team. Make sense?

Our standard TMITT metric is TMITT-skater for forwards and defensemen, and TMITT-goalie for goalies. Several variants of TMITT also take into account other basic performance metrics for hockey players – TMITT-goals for goals scored, TMITT-points for total points, TMITT-hits for number of hits, TMITT-gaa for goals against average (for goalies), etc. You get the hint.

A frequent criticism of TMITT is that it overvalues defensemen on a team (and their injuries) since defensemen typically play more minutes in a game, i.e. have higher ATOI figures. I would counter that this is exactly how it should be. Defensemen (good ones) ARE more valuable to a team.

I would argue that losing your top defenseman to injury for 20 games is worse than losing your top forward to injury for 20 games. There are only 6 defensemen on a game roster. There are 12 forwards.

Thus, the TMITT metric takes into account a player’s role on the team, and their performance via their ATOI – two primary measurements of a player’s value to a team. Add in the TMITT variants, including goals, assists, hits, GAA, etc. and it does more than just quantifying an injury based on cap hit for the player.

We thought we’d take this opportunity to pit CHIP against TMITT to quantify the impact of player injuries to a team. Below are three tables of data. They contain the top thirty ratings of players who have been injured, measured by CHIP or TMITT.

Table 1 contains the top 30 CHIP values quantifying the impact of players (forwards and defensemen) injured for some duration this year. Also shown are the position they play and the number of official games their team reported them injured.

Table 2 (TMITT-skater) and Table 3 (TMITTb-skater, a new variant we’re testing) provide the top 30 TMITT values quantifying the impact of forwards and defensemen injured for some duration this season. These tables also show player positions and the number of official games their team reported them injured.

In your view, which table more accurately reflects the proper ranking of players injured at some point during this season, taking into consideration the position they play, and the duration of their injury?

Let us know through Twitter or via our Contact form.

TABLE 1. NHL TOP 30 CHIP CALCULATIONS JANUARY 29, 2015

Rank	NameNumber	Team	Position	CHIP (in millions of $)	Injured (Team Reported)
	Ryane Clowe #29	New Jersey Devils	Left Wing	2.011	34
	Zdeno Chara #33	Boston Bruins	Defenseman	1.6027	19
	Corey Perry #10	Anaheim Ducks	Right Wing	1.5777	15
	Ryan Murray #27	Columbus Blue Jackets	Defenseman	1.4913	35
	Joffrey Lupul #19	Toronto Maple Leafs	Left Wing	1.4726	23
	Pascal Dupuis #9	Pittsburgh Penguins	Right Wing	1.4177	31
	Toby Enstrom #39	Winnipeg Jets	Defenseman	1.3323	19
	Bryce Salvador #24	New Jersey Devils	Defenseman	1.2359	32
	Dan Hamhuis #2	Vancouver Canucks	Defenseman	1.2073	22
	Artem Anisimov #42	Columbus Blue Jackets	Center	1.2011	30
	Ryan Wilson #44	Colorado Avalanche	Defenseman	1.1524	42
	Dave Bolland #63	Florida Panthers	Center	1.1402	17
	David Krejci #46	Boston Bruins	Center	1.0884	17
	Valeri Nichushkin #43	Dallas Stars	Right Wing	1.0625	41
	Jamie McGinn #11	Colorado Avalanche	Left Wing	1.0433	29
	Zach Bogosian #44	Winnipeg Jets	Defenseman	0.9408	15
	Victor Hedman #77	Tampa Bay Lightning	Defenseman	0.878	18
	Dan Boyle #22	New York Rangers	Defenseman	0.878	16
	Evander Kane #9	Winnipeg Jets	Left Wing	0.8323	13
	Benoit Pouliot #67	Edmonton Oilers	Left Wing	0.7805	16
	Stephen Weiss #90	Detroit Red Wings	Center	0.7768	13
	Marian Gaborik #12	Los Angeles Kings	Right Wing	0.7729	13
	Eric Brewer #2	Anaheim Ducks	Defenseman	0.7695	22
	Francois Beauchemin #23	Anaheim Ducks	Defenseman	0.7683	18
	Mike Cammalleri #23	New Jersey Devils	Left Wing	0.7317	12
	Johan Franzen #93	Detroit Red Wings	Right Wing	0.7235	15
	Fedor Tyutin #51	Columbus Blue Jackets	Defenseman	0.7134	13
	Brad Stuart #17	Colorado Avalanche	Defenseman	0.7024	16
	Lubomir Visnovsky #11	New York Islanders	Defenseman	0.6951	12
	Mason Raymond #21	Calgary Flames	Left Wing	0.6915	18

TABLE 2. NHL TOP 30 TMITT-SKATER CALCULATIONS JANUARY 29, 2015

Rank	NameNumber	Team	Position	TMITT-skater	Injured (Team Reported)
	Toby Enstrom #39	Winnipeg Jets	Defenseman	283.6	19
	Zdeno Chara #33	Boston Bruins	Defenseman	262	19
	Francois Beauchemin #23	Anaheim Ducks	Defenseman	255	18
	Dan Hamhuis #2	Vancouver Canucks	Defenseman	237.4	22
	Jacob Trouba #8	Winnipeg Jets	Defenseman	236.1	15
	Victor Hedman #77	Tampa Bay Lightning	Defenseman	233.6	18
	Zach Bogosian #44	Winnipeg Jets	Defenseman	233.1	15
	Olli Maatta #3	Pittsburgh Penguins	Defenseman	232.9	27
	Damon Severson #28	New Jersey Devils	Defenseman	230.2	15
	Ben Lovejoy #6	Anaheim Ducks	Defenseman	220.7	21
	Brad Stuart #17	Colorado Avalanche	Defenseman	218.4	16
	Adam McQuaid #54	Boston Bruins	Defenseman	216.8	18
	Jon Merrill #7	New Jersey Devils	Defenseman	213.9	14
	Dan Boyle #22	New York Rangers	Defenseman	212.4	16
	Jonas Brodin #25	Minnesota Wild	Defenseman	206.2	11
	Mikael Backlund #11	Calgary Flames	Center	202.4	29
	Robyn Regehr #44	Los Angeles Kings	Defenseman	197.7	15
	Joffrey Lupul #19	Toronto Maple Leafs	Left Wing	194.3	23
	Ryan McDonagh #27	New York Rangers	Defenseman	191	11
	Corey Perry #10	Anaheim Ducks	Right Wing	185.8	15
	Bryce Salvador #24	New Jersey Devils	Defenseman	185	32
	Fedor Tyutin #51	Columbus Blue Jackets	Defenseman	183.1	13
	David Krejci #46	Boston Bruins	Center	180.7	17
	Mikael Granlund #64	Minnesota Wild	Center	180.4	14
	Joe Colborne #8	Calgary Flames	Center	175.1	17
	Leo Komarov #47	Toronto Maple Leafs	Center	174.5	19
	Evander Kane #9	Winnipeg Jets	Left Wing	173.2	13
	Artem Anisimov #42	Columbus Blue Jackets	Center	173	30
	Pascal Dupuis #9	Pittsburgh Penguins	Right Wing	171.8	31
	Johnny Boychuk #55	New York Islanders	Defenseman	171.6	10

TABLE 3. NHL TOP 30 TMITTb-SKATER CALCULATIONS JANUARY 29, 2015

Rank	NameNumber	Team	Position	TMITTb-skater	Injured (Team Reported)
	Ryan Murray #27	Columbus Blue Jackets	Defenseman	14.837	35
	Bryce Salvador #24	New Jersey Devils	Defenseman	12.333	32
	Olli Maatta #3	Pittsburgh Penguins	Defenseman	11.644	27
	Ryane Clowe #29	New Jersey Devils	Left Wing	11.097	34
	Valeri Nichushkin #43	Dallas Stars	Right Wing	11.05	41
	Artem Anisimov #42	Columbus Blue Jackets	Center	10.815	30
	Pascal Dupuis #9	Pittsburgh Penguins	Right Wing	10.742	31
	Mikael Backlund #11	Calgary Flames	Center	10.653	29
	Patrik Nemeth #37	Dallas Stars	Defenseman	10.336	42
	Dan Hamhuis #2	Vancouver Canucks	Defenseman	9.892	22
	Ryan Wilson #44	Colorado Avalanche	Defenseman	9.6	42
	Toby Enstrom #39	Winnipeg Jets	Defenseman	9.455	19
	Zdeno Chara #33	Boston Bruins	Defenseman	9.032	19
	Mark Letestu #55	Columbus Blue Jackets	Center	8.836	28
	Jamie McGinn #11	Colorado Avalanche	Left Wing	8.739	29
	Francois Beauchemin #23	Anaheim Ducks	Defenseman	8.5	18
	Eric Brewer #2	Anaheim Ducks	Defenseman	8.189	22
	Trevor van Riemsdyk #57	Chicago Blackhawks	Defenseman	8.176	29
	Ben Lovejoy #6	Anaheim Ducks	Defenseman	8.174	21
	Victor Hedman #77	Tampa Bay Lightning	Defenseman	8.057	18
	Keith Ballard #2	Minnesota Wild	Defenseman	7.691	30
	Joffrey Lupul #19	Toronto Maple Leafs	Left Wing	7.471	23
	Dan Boyle #22	New York Rangers	Defenseman	7.324	16
	Adam McQuaid #54	Boston Bruins	Defenseman	7.225	18
	Damon Severson #28	New Jersey Devils	Defenseman	7.193	15
	Jacob Trouba #8	Winnipeg Jets	Defenseman	7.153	15
	Zach Bogosian #44	Winnipeg Jets	Defenseman	6.857	15
	Mike Brown #18	San Jose Sharks	Right Wing	6.681	40
	Brad Stuart #17	Colorado Avalanche	Defenseman	6.618	16
	David Krejci #46	Boston Bruins	Center	6.452	17

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